411 Question of the Week (12/18)
Discuss one player from the 2009 All-Surprise Team list who you think is overvalued heading into 2010.
hard to knock a 27-year-old second baseman who hits 36 homers, but I have a
hard time accepting that Aaron Hill can match next season what he did in 2009.
His walk rate actually declined from his last strong full season, in 2005, and
while his strikeout rate also dipped, he didn’t hit more fly balls than in that
17-homer campaign. In short, Hill got a little older and a little stronger,
resulting in a spike in his home run rate, but otherwise he was essentially the
same player. There’s still plenty of value in a second baseman who hits in the
.280′s with 20 or more homers, but I’m not investing a third or fourth round
pick to see what type of season Hill will offer next year.
Not to belittle Ben Zobrist’s
breakout 2009 campaign, but let me see him do this again. In part-time
duty from 2006-2008, Zobrist hit a combined 15 home runs with 57 RBIs
and seven steals while never batting above .253. Then all of a sudden
comes a .297-27-91-17 year. Now I understand the theory that it took
regular playing time for Zobrist to realize his full potential. This,
however, is a bit extreme. Zobrist’s second base eligibility
undoubtedly enhances his fantasy value, but I’m not spending the first
pick of the sixth round (current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 61) on a
guy with such a limited body of work. I’d gladly draft Jose Lopez or
even Howie Kendrick (he’s bound to break through one of these years)
four or five rounds later.