411 Question of the Week (12/18)

AP090416030451.jpg
Discuss one player from the 2009 All-Surprise Team list who you think is overvalued heading into 2010.

It’s
hard to knock a 27-year-old second baseman who hits 36 homers, but I have a
hard time accepting that Aaron Hill can match next season what he did in 2009.
His walk rate actually declined from his last strong full season, in 2005, and
while his strikeout rate also dipped, he didn’t hit more fly balls than in that
17-homer campaign. In short, Hill got a little older and a little stronger,
resulting in a spike in his home run rate, but otherwise he was essentially the
same player. There’s still plenty of value in a second baseman who hits in the
.280’s with 20 or more homers, but I’m not investing a third or fourth round
pick to see what type of season Hill will offer next year.

-Cory

Not to belittle Ben Zobrist’s
breakout 2009 campaign, but let me see him do this again. In part-time
duty from 2006-2008, Zobrist hit a combined 15 home runs with 57 RBIs
and seven steals while never batting above .253. Then all of a sudden
comes a .297-27-91-17 year. Now I understand the theory that it took
regular playing time for Zobrist to realize his full potential. This,
however, is a bit extreme. Zobrist’s second base eligibility
undoubtedly enhances his fantasy value, but I’m not spending the first
pick of the sixth round (current ADP on Mock Draft Central is 61) on a
guy with such a limited body of work. I’d gladly draft Jose Lopez or
even Howie Kendrick (he’s bound to break through one of these years)
four or five rounds later.

-Zach

***On a side note, be sure to check out Jonathan Mayo and Lisa Winston’s analysis of the prospects involved in the Roy Halladay deal

6 Comments

Hey guys, an early keeper question for you–
12team 5×5, standard scoring, we keep 5, no off season trading.

My sure-fire keepers:
Utley, Tiexiera, Lincecum

Probably keeping: Rollins

And I need a 5th keeper from:
Werth, Victorino, Carlos Lee, Halladay

As much as it pains me to do it, going against the 411 philosophy, I’m thinking of keeping Halladay, as the 3 outfielders all seem rather interchangeable value wise, and i’m likely to get one back in the 6th round.

Am I crazy to keep 2 pitchers, or is this the best call given the guys i’ve got?

phoward,

Yeah, I don’t have a problem with you keeping Halladay here. As you said, he’s someone you would definitely not get back whereas there’s a decent chance you get one of the OFs back. You could be a little weak at outfield but it’s not like Lee, Victorino or Werth a surefire #1 OFs anyway.

Zach

Hi 411,
Happy 2010!

10 team keeper league 5×5 roto

I have to keep 3 of these players: A Hill, Beltran, Votto, McCann, BJ Upton, Reynolds, Ethier

And keep 2 of these 5 pitchers: Rivera, Nathan, Gallardo, Carpenter, Kershaw

Thanks

maysways,

My hitter choices would be McCann, Votto and Upton (I’m willing to gamble on a bounce back year). I like Beltran a lot too but think his price will be discounted to such a degree that you can get him back in the draft. One can make a great case for Reynolds but I’m personally avoiding him. Too risky in the AVG department and I think the SBs will drop off.

As for the pitchers, Rivera and Nathan, even in a keeper.

Zach

Thanks Zach for your response.
What do Cory and Mike think? I have a feeling Mike would be thinking along the same line as you with regards to RPs.
Thanks again.

maysways,

I agree on nathan and Mo. You are getting the two best for 4th and 5th rd value so it’s fair value and you’ll be able to get at least one of those other SPs back. For the hitters I agree with the top 4 that Zach layed out but I have Beltran above Votto. Either way whoever you don’t keep might be your first target when you straight draft. …..Siano

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