411 Question of the Week (2/4)


IMPORTANT DATES TO KEEP IN MIND

March 6th: NY First Pitch Forum, Time and Location TBD
March 26th: AL Tout Wars Draft, 4:00pm ET @ Citi Field
March 27th: NFBC NY, Citi Field
March 28th: NL and Mixed Tout, Citi Field

Continue checking the blog for updates and an upcoming big announcement

Fantasy
411 Audio Podcast
        Fantasy
411 Video Podcast

Follow the 411 on Twitter @fantasy411, @schwartzstops, @fantasymlb
______________________________________________________________________________

Milledge_pit.jpg

Discuss
one player who you will be targeting in the very late rounds as a cheap source
for speed.


Lastings Milledge is something of a forgotten man
after being run out of two organizations, and he was further hampered last
season by a broken finger, but he’s stolen 28 bases in his last 162 Major
League games going back to 2008, along with a .278 average and 17 homers. He
seems comfortable in Pittsburgh,
especially now that he’s been moved to the less stressful defensive assignment
in left field, and he’s still only 24. Milledge’s talent has never been in
question, so with a full season of health and calm this could be year he starts
converting those skills into big-time fantasy results.


-Cory


Want to fill your
middle-infield spot with a burgeoning young shortstop with top-flight speed who
will cost you next to nothing?  If so, give Everth Cabrera a call. The impressive 23-year-old sophomore is
riding high after swiping 25 bases in just 103 games during his maiden voyage
through the bigs last season.  And don’t attribute it to beginner’s luck,
as Cabrera’s track record more than backs up his strong debut, as he pilfered a
******** 73 bags through the Minors in the 2008 season.  If that’s not
enough, the fleet-footed Padre has proven he can get on base, as evidenced by
his .324 OBP in the ’09 campaign.  Don’t let this middle-infield sleeper
who can carry you in steals slip through the cracks in the late rounds of your
draft.  


-Dave Feldman,
MLB.com Fantasy     


Dexter Fowler
just got selected with the fourth pick of the 19th round in the
ongoing slow mock draft over at fantasybaseballtrademarket.com. That’s awfully
late for a former top prospect who finished his rookie season with 27 stolen
bases in only 135 games. The switch-hitting centerfielder averaged a little under
28 steals a year over his final three Minor League seasons, proving that his
2009 performance was no fluke. Fowler’s struggles vs. righties (.240 AVG) might
scare off some owners, but let’s remember that the kid is still only 23. so
there’s plenty of room for improvement. His ability to hit from both sides of
the plate should only help him to make the necessary adjustments. As for the
crowded outfield situation in Colorado,
I’m not all that concerned. Fowler will surely receive enough at-bats to make a
legitimate steals impact. No way will I let him fall this far in my drafts.


-Zach     

14 Comments

What’s the BIG Announcement??????
This tease is now killing me.
TP

Hey 411 – This is something I posted yesterday on the previous post… thanks again!

Hey 411,
Here’s an update on my keeper situation. Last time I talked to you I was trying to trade Vazquez and guys I wasn’t going to keep for Morales (22nd). I do still have that option open, but I also have another option that I think may be more beneficial overall. One of the teams needs pitching and is willing to trade me Jeter (5th) for Vazquez and Haren (who I’m not keeping due to better round values on Greinke -7, and Wainwright – 9). This would give me my 4th round open and I think I could get a big hitting 1B in that spot along the lines of Dunn or Pena, who I think will be thrown back. Kendry is definitely a better round value, but SS is so shallow that I think this might be the way to go. Just to expand, if I kept Jeter my round specific keepers would be: Wright (1), Mauer (2), Sizemore (3), Jeter (5), Greinke (7), and Wainwright (9). If I kept Morales I would have him in the 22nd instead of Jeter in the 5th which would open up my 4th and 5th rounds, but I’d be looking at taking **** like Asdrubal Cabrera as all of the top SS will be kept. Thanks again.
Everett

alright props to Milledge-i like it
http://pittpeas.mlblogs.com

I have a very strong and cheap pitching staff in an NL only keeper league with a ML draft:
Josh Johnson 7$ (2010)
Nolasco 3$ (2010)
Dempster 7$ (2010)
Hudson 2$ (2011)
Happ 1$ (2011)
Kuroda 12$ (2010)
Broxton 29$ (2011)

Pretty good bang for the buck there in my staff but I need offense and am thinking of trading Happ or Hudson to get solid cheap players: I have had these player dangled in front of me:

Fowler 7$
cody ross 3$
ryan madson 5$
heath bell 8$
Jason Castro (ML)
Logan Morrison (ML)
ryan zimmerman 21$

I also have F-mart and Dominic Brown in the minors as trade bait. I don’t want to leave my team too depleted for the future but I am making a serious run for it this year. Any suggestions to jockey myself into a good position before our auction?

Just wondering if Michael Brantley is another legit option to look for to pick up some extra speed at the end of a draft?

Cory,

I’m having trouble calculating SGP on rate stats and hope you can point out my flaw. Here goes. 1) I’ve calculated that minimum replacement level 1B will hit 19 HR and hit .271 (I’ve calced this for each stat but focus on these two to simplify) . 2) In my league the first place team averages 19 HR per hitter while the last place team averages 17 (each 2 HR gives 1 SGP). 3) Pujols then gets 12 SGP since I project him hitting 43 HR. 4) Here’s where I hit the snag. The difference between first and worst on BA is .020 (first hits .287 and worst his .267). 5) I project Pujols hits .342. 6) Does Pujols get 3.6 SGP ((.342 – .271) / .02) or should I divide the .02 by the total number of hitters (14) and then divide in to .342 – .271 in which case Pujols gets a ******** 50 SGPs ((.342-.271 ) / (.02/14) = 50 )?

Thanks!
Perm

Everett,

Just answered your question on the Blog Checklist post.

Zach

higgs,

Of that list of guys to potentially trade for, I like Fowler, Madson, and especially Bell the most. I’m OK with trying to trade Hudson or Happ but I’m not a big fan of Dempster and might try to see what I could get for him at $7. Kuroda is clearly the worst value of your group.

For the right price, no player should be off limits, so go out there and see where the interest lies.

You’ve definitely got enough bargain basement types to afford the acquisition of a couple high-priced guys. Don’t be hesitant to go for it this year if you’re confident in your team. There’s never a shortage of appealing prospects.

Zach

Cory/Siano-

I know in the past you have offered up numbers of what it would take to win your Roto league. I am looking to do a straight draft, 15-team NFBC satellite?where I need to come out of the draft with.

Thanks for your insight, and please, PLEASE tell us your announcement is the return of the hour-long podcasts!!!!!!
Shane

Nate,

Yeah, I do think Brantley is a great late-round sleeper. He’s shown top flight speed at every level in the Minors and will almost certainly play every day. There’s talk he might even bat leadoff as Cleveland could place Sizemore more towards the middle of their lineup. Brantley’s main drawback is his complete lack of power, but as a fifth outfielder in mixed leagues you can do a lot worse.

Zach

Hey guys…I can only keep 1 player in a mixed 10 team 5×5 roto league. Hanley for $30 and lose a round 1 pick or Pablo Sandoval for $7 and lose a round 9 pick. I’m leaning towards keeping Pablo and throwing Hanley back…am I crazy?

chicagobil,

No, you’re not crazy, but I’d still go with Hanley. I’m a little bit confused as to the structure of this league as you’re mentioning both dollars and rounds but 30 bucks for Hanley is not all that bad. Is Kung Fu Panda still great value? Absolutely. But shortstop is such a tricky position this year that I’d have a hard time passing on Hanley.

Zach

Yeah, its a weird league. Basically each player is pre-assigned a $ value. We then draft the players with those $ values in a regular snake draft. We are able to keep 1 player from last year with last years salary, but we lose the round we drafted that player in. Thus, I can either keep Hanley for $30 and lose my round 1 pick…or I can keep Sandoval for $7 and lose my round 9 pick. My thought process in keeping Sandoval is that I think 3rd is also a weak position, and if I’ll still have my round 1 pick…so I can use that to grab Hanley if he’s there…if not I can use a later pick to grab a quality SS…but I’ll still have a lot of $ available since I’m getting Sandoval so cheap. But I struggle letting go of Hanley…

chicagobil,

If you feel that you could at least draft another upper tier SS (i.e. Tulo, Rollins, Jeter) with that first pick, I can understand keeping Pablo. But honestly, I just couldn’t do it! Hanley’s too good. Very tough decision.

Zach

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 251 other followers

%d bloggers like this: