Updated projections 3/7/2010

**VALUABLE RESOURCES AND IMPORTANT UPCOMING DATES**

Hey folks here are the updated composite projections (2010.composite.projections.030710.xls), reflecting these changes since the last time:

* Updated the team assignments for several free agent signings, such as Johnny Damon;
* Adjusted playing time for literally hundreds of players to what I consider to be realistic expectations… for instance, this assumes that Ian Desmond will at least share a MI job with Cristian Guzman and Adam Kennedy;
* Tweaked runs scored and RBI’s to be in a more typical range (94-95%) on a per-team basis, and the win/save ratios as well;
* Added a league column to help out those in the unmixed world, and also games-by-position and position qualifications based on NFBC rules, which I consider to be fairly universal;
* Updated the POS column based on the actual games played and position eligibility rules.

(Also, I made sure this is saved in the previous version of Excel so everyone should be able to open this file without issue.)
alex-gordon.jpg
I’ve been tinkering around with this as recently as this morning, so it includes adjustments to reflect the injury news on Russell
Martin
and Alex Gordon (right), among others. Sell, Mortimer, sell!

If you’re not sure of how these projections are built, or what they represent, please read previous threads as Q&A’s before posting questions here… all your questions have probably been answered already. The best place to start is this year’s first draft of the projections.

Next steps in my draft prep is a series of mock drafts based on these projections (and the resultant rankings), starting tonight. Enjoy, everyone!

Thanks,
Cory

P.S. – If you don’t already, follow Siano and me on Twitter at @fantasy411 and @schwartzstops, respectively. Good times.

25 Comments

Hey 411,
Just want to say thank you to you all for the endless information and help you’ve given. Another thank you to Cory for the composite projections. Let the drat prep begin…
Andy

I’ve tried compiling my own set of projections in the past using only 5 sources and it was a disaster. I can’t even imagine all the work Cory puts into these. Many thanks, Cory.

Cory -

Thanks for these….Question: I notice you dropped several players (~500) from 1st draft to this go round. A. Chapman SP CIN is one, I take it you feel these are non draftable – regardless of hype.

- BDH in DC

Hi Cory,
thank you for all the effort, much appreciated.

I Have a question regarding a 12 Team Head to Head Scoring league:
Tim Lincecum is projected to make 700 points this season the best SP available on the FA market (Kuroda right around 100 SP) is projected to make around 330 points. Pujols is projected to make 665 points and the replacement player is Billy Butler with 486 points. So Lincecum makes 370 points more than replacement and Pujols “only” 179 points. I know that you prefer elite hitters over elite pitchers in a roto format but what about a scoring format where the elite pitchers outscore the elite hitters in regard to replacement by alot? Would you adjust your draftstrategy here? Would Lincecum become the first overall pick?

Greetings from Germany,
Jerome

Cory -
These are great – between this, the MLB.com cheatsheets, and BP’s PFM, I feel fully prepared heading into each draft season with a wealth of information.
Thanks for all of the help and entertainment over the years – looking forward to seeing your special on the network!
- Adam

Dave in Delaware reporting from Northern New Jersey:

I had a chance to go to Ron Shandler’s First Pitch Forum on Saturday. The whole program was great, but the highlight was certainly the keynote presentation by Mike and Cory, who held forth on the 411 philosophy. They also offered tremendous insight during other portions of the program. Although he was not on the list of presenters, the King of the 411 blog, Zach was en la casa, as well, which reminds me to thank all three of them for making the blog such a valuable complement to the show itself. It was great to see all of you in scenic Teaneck. I think everyone left feeling like the season is now truly upon us. Play ball!

Oh, and one piece of business: Would I be crazy to keep Jesus Flores for $5 in a 12 team, NL-only, two catcher, deep roster, up to 12 keepers league, knowing that he’ll probably split time with Pudge and maybe start the season on the DL?

Thanks again,
Dave in Delaware

Dave,

It’s not a crazy thought but I’d still pass on keeping Flores. For $1 maybe but not $5. I just don’t see that much upside and the timeshare with Pudge is a problem. You’ll be able to get him back for cheaper I think.

Great to meet you on Saturday BTW. I thought Shandler did an excellent job with the Forum and it was a lot of fun.

Zach

Quick Question is @FantasyMLB a dead Twitter Acct????

Last tweet was: if yanks go with three-man rotation, where does gaudin fit in? #mlbpulse #mlbpulse
1:15 PM Oct 13th, 2009 via web

- BDH in DC

Cory’s a statistics stud. These are really good to have. I’d like to use these with Siano’s strategy of taking the #3 guy in each category. Can’t really remember the strategy fully.

Casey – Indy

BDH,

It’s very possible. I’ll look into it.
********************************************************
Casey,

Here’s what Siano does: During his auction prep he uses Cory’s projections to determine if the fake team he lays out that fits in the budget would finish in at least third place in every category when looking at last season’s final standings, his theory being that a team finishing third in every category would win their league. He’d then revisit these projections after his draft to assess how well he did and pinpoint his team’s strengths and weaknesses. The same approach can be used for non-auction formats but it works particularly well for auctions.

Zach

Keeper Question: 10-Team, Head-2-Head, extra cats OPS, Hitter K?s and Pitchers L?s.

We keep 5, no value attached and I have three slam dunks: Braun, Kemp, Miggy C?.

Which leaves 2 spots left for the following: Pedroia, Jeter, Zimmerman and Sabathia. I can?t trade up, and will pick drafting 8th , so the chances of any of these guys falling to me is slim to none.

I am leaning towards Pedroia and Jeter because if I don?t keep them I miss out on all the ?Elite Guys?.There will still be other possible 3B available with Aramis, M Young, Beckam, etc. By giving back CC, I will not get a TRUE #1, but the crop of 1A starters (ie C.Lee, Wainwright, Lester) will be available.

What are your thought?

Thanks the help!

Blake in San Fran

Mike, Cory and Zach

My league drafted early this year and I already have problems.
I have Nathan as my number 1 closer and I also have Martin as my only catcher. Would you drop Martin to pick up Doumit?
Also should I go out and get Jenks? he seems to be the best closer left on the board. I’m scrambling and the season hasn’t even started yet. I do have Bailey and K-rod as my other closers but I usually go with three closers. Please help.

Dmenz

Hi, yesterday I made three trades with the same team. What do you think of them (roto 5X5, 10 teams)?

1. Give: Everth Cabrera, Grady Sizemore, Bengie Molina, Tim Hudson
Get: Carl Crawford, Gavin Floyd, J.A. Happ
Other team drops Ryan Theriot; I add Nick Swisher

2. Give: Marco Scutaro, Mat Latos
Get: Kevin Kouzmanoff, Carlos Marmol

3. Give: Ryan Braun, Nyjer Morgan
Get: Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz

Team Before:

C Joe Mauer
1B Miguel Cabrera
2B Maicer Izturis
3B Alex Gordon
SS Everth Cabrera
2B/SS Marco Scutaro
1B/3B Garrett Jones
OF Ryan Braun
OF Matt Kemp
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Justin Upton
OF Nyjer Morgan
UTIL Alfonso Soriano
P Felix Hernandez
P Tim Hudson
P John Danks
P Clay Buchholz
P Scott Kazmir
P Bobby Jenks
P Mat Latos
P Jonathan Sanchez
P Aaron Harang
BE Nolan Reimold
BE Bengie Molina
BE Nick Johnson

Thanks.

Blake,

I agree on going with the position scarcity route by keeping Pedroia and Jeter. Having two top-tier middle infielders gives you a huge advantage over the competition and it sounds like the SP pool will be deep. As for Zimmerman, I think he’ll experience a power drop from last year’s 33 homers.
*****************************************************************
Dmenz,

If you don’t have space for Martin on your bench, I don’t have a problem with dropping him for Doumit. I have no idea why Jenks is on the waiver wire so yes, why not pick him up for some extra depth at closer?
**********************************************************
Babu,

Trade 1: Don’t like: What’s the point of this deal? You’re getting a small upgrade (mostly SBs) from Sizemore to Crawford but are giving up considerable speed in Cabrera. I see the Hudson for Floyd tradeoff as fairly even and Happ as somewhat overrated heading into this season. Not a terrible trade but I just don’t understand why it’s necessary.

Trade 2: Really like: You’re not giving up much here for Marmol, a potentially dominant closer.

Trade 3: Like: You’re getting the best player in the deal in Hanley and actually improving in the power department despite trading away Braun.

Zach

In a 12 team, mixed, 5×5 league, using these projections what goals should I set for drafting? How many HR, SB, etc should I set as a draft goal?

Can you help with a keeper question. I need to keep 4 players and we play c,1b,2b,SS,3b,MI,CI 4OF,4SP,2RP,1P and 6 bench

I’m not sure I have 4 you would draft in the first 4 rounds but my potentials are

Grady Sizemore
Ryan Zimmerman
King Felix
Justin Morneau
Nick Markakis
Matt Cain
Dan Uggla (only in due to position scarcity)

I am leaning towards the top 4 but finding the Morneau / Markakis decision tricky as I think Morneau has more upside but markakis is more reliable.

i am drafting 4th so am likely to get a reasonable pick of top talent that the top teams can’t keep

Hey 411,

With the news of Joe Nathan possibly heading for TJ surgery after meeting with Dr. Andrews, this is the exact reason why I was asking about who to keep b/w Kershaw, Gallardo, Nathan, Carpenter, Rivera.
I had been leaning towards the 2 young pitchers in the Claw and Gallardo due to the fact Nathan was coming off of elbow surgery in the offseason and is 36 while Rivera is 41. It was only a matter of time before an injury did hit one of these 2 great pitchers.
I know you love the 2 power closers Siano but this was not the year for me to go with Nathan and Rivera. Maybe in a one year league but when you have the option of getting Kershaw and Gallardo for a keeper league and the next 10 years, I think you have to do it. I will be targeting Soria and one other RP in the draft.
Anyway, thanks for the shout out on the podcast and do you still believe D Wright should be drafted 27th overall in drafts? :)
Also is this year B Upton finally gets to 270, 20, 80, 50?
Thanks as always,
Cheers

Tim,

I’d go with Markakis over Morneau. 1B is ridiculously deep this year and Morneau doesn’t quite measure up to the elite guys at the position. With Markakis you know exactly what you’re getting and there’s even some room for improvement.
*****************************************************************
maysways,

I don’t know about 50 steals for Upton but it’s certainly possible. I definitely think he’ll have a bounce back year and offers great value considering where he’s being taken in mocks and early real drafts.

Zach

Guys,

I see a lot of other blogs/podcasts/etc stress the idea that you should never take a top tier closer in a draft because saves can be found cheap. I believe that the 411 strategy is that you should always try to get at least 1 elite closer. Can you explain why you think getting an elite closer is better than waiting for cheap saves?

Thanks!

Mike and Cory 1st off guys I like the free MLB.com fantasy baseball game I have 2 teams on that leauge and I drafted Grady Sizemore on one of my teams. Keep up the good work guys with the MLB.com Fantasy 411. I have a quick question will the Fantasy 411 show be back on Sirius XM Radio again this year? Thanks love the show. Kenny In Ohio

Hey guys,

I have a question for you. The past few years my head-to-head draft strategy has been to get two OF in the first 4 rounds. I’m hoping to get Kemp in the 2nd round, but am realistic that things will have to go my way for that to happen. Which leaves me staring at Justin Upton, who seems to be the universally ranked, 3rd best OF in fantasy this year. But I’m aware of his injury history, and he has been somewhat streaky over the course of a season. Are you guys real believers of Upton, and should I expect Kemp-like numbers from him? Or is this the year I should look to alter my strategy?

elipitt,

Cory says he’ll put up a new blog post soon to address the closer topic.
**************************************************************8
Kenny,

Sirius show status still TBD. We should have an answer shortly.
*************************************************************
gggogo,

I don’t think you should be tied to any one plan in terms of filling certain positions as the unexpected can happen in any draft but I do like Upton a lot and definitely view him as a legit second rounder. .300-30-100-30 isn’t out of the question.

Zach

Zach, thanks for info re: Siano’s strategy. Thanks to you guys I might start to look like I know what I’m doing.

Thank you so much for putting these stats together, along with the games played by position. This has saved me a ton of work!

Cory – Are you expecting to post an updated version of your projected stats before opening day? They are a phenomenal resource!

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