Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, April 17-19

**411 Valuable Resources**

**MLB.com Fantasy 411 lands on MLB Network for 2010**

Santana_ervin.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Wilson @ Burnett – Wilson is coming off an illness
but the Yankees might make him sick
Saunders @ Tallet
Meche @ Blackburn
Guthrie @ Duchscherer – Last start
was much better, he’s at home and the O’s are scuffling
Peavy @ Westbrook  - Not loving Peavy but the Indians can’t score
right now
Shields @ Buchholz
Verlander @ Rowland-Smith

Oswalt @
Gorzelanny
- Poor,
poor Roy Oswalt!

Wolf @ L. Hernandez 
J.
Santana
@
Garcia

Lincecum @ Haeger - Haeger dominated the Fish last time,
but the Giants are actually scoring some runs these days so I’ll
pass
Cueto @ Ohlendorf

Nolasco @ Moyer
Jimenez @ Kawakami
TBD @ Correia

 

SUNDAY

Harden @ Pettitte
Floyd @ Carmona – Carmona is an enigma right
now, I’m waiting for a more clear direction
Big Erv @ Romero - Hard to trust Erv right now
Garza @
Lester
 -
AL Cy vs. the
runner-up
Hochevar @ Pavano
– Still not trusting
Hochevar
Matusz @ Anderson  - Undercard to Garza/Lester
Scherzer @ Snell


G. Smith @ Jurrjens - Have to believe Jurrjens will rebound at home vs.
the banged-up Rockies
D. Davis @ Marquis

Robertson @ Hamels
Arroyo @ Maholm
Wandy @
Dempster
 - Is Wandy hurt? I'll give
him one more start to find out
Kennedy @ TBD
– If Kennedy
gives up 3 more HR in San
Diego I’m going to lose faith!
Zito @
Kershaw


Maine @ Wainwright

 


MONDAY

Niemann @ Lackey
Bannister @ Morrow
Willis @ Pineiro - Pineiro was sharp vs. the Yankees so
I’ll ride him at home vs. DET
Bergesen @
Fister

Wells @ Niese
Cook @ Stammen
Penny @ R. Lopez
Cain @
Richard
- Richard
started well last time but faded, but I like him at home

SIANO’S PICKS

SATURDAY

 
Wilson
@ Burnett
Saunders
@ Tallet *Jays are hot
Meche
@ Blackburn

Guthrie @ Duchscherer *Guthrie hasn’t been bad.
Peavy @ Westbrook *Not surprised Peavy
is struggling but you can’t give up this early.

Shields @ Buchholz
Verlander
@ Rowland-Smith *no-no alert ;-) *RRS
2 k’s so far this year ummm pass.

Oswalt @ Gorzelanny *Last start vs Philly was stellar so
you have to trot him out, Gorz super last start too.

Wolf @ L. Hernandez  *Wolf risky but good shot at Ks and W.
J. Santana @ Garcia *Still Johan. Mets
start proving they can hit out of Coors I’ll start fearing them.

Lincecum @ Haeger *I know 12 ks but really?
Cueto
@ Ohlendorf

Nolasco @ Moyer
Jimenez @ Kawakami
TBD
@ Correia

 
SUNDAY

 
Harden
@ Pettitte

Floyd @ Carmona
Big Erv @ Romero *A Siano delight. Yes Big Erv is
testing my patience. Feel free to tell me I’m crazy.

Garza @ Lester *Wow
Hochevar
@ Pavano

Matusz @ Anderson *A’s can’t hit, Anderson cooking
Scherzer @ Snell *Duel or ugly proceed with caution on
Snell.
G.
Smith @ Jurrjens *Jurrjens worth trotting him out.
D.
Davis @ Marquis
Robertson
@ Hamels

Arroyo @ Maholm
Wandy @ Dempster
Kennedy
@ TBD *Kennedy has the stuff to succeed in NL and this is
SD.

Zito @ Kershaw
Maine
@ Wainwright

 
MONDAY


Niemann
@ Lackey
*Niemann bounced back well from liner but that was Baltimore. He
does well here I may be buying.

Bannister @ Morrow *Bannister pitching well
Willis @ Pineiro *Once more before off d-train in mixed.
Feel free to ignore.
Bergesen
@ Fister

Wells @ Niese
Cook
@ Stammen

Penny @ R. Lopez
Cain @ Richard

26 Comments

Hey 411.

5×5 roto keeper, OBP instead of Average

Proposed trade where I get G. Sizemore and I give Lind.

My other OFs are B Upton, Adam Jones, Chris Young,

and rest of Lineup is – Reynolds, Aramis Ramirez, A Hill, Votto, D Wright, Weiters, S Drew

Make the deal?

Thanks

Hi, great job as always. Love the evening show. I am in a 12 team 5×5 vanilla w/ 4 OF, CI and MI. I am looking to improve my pitching staff. I am considering trading Manny Ramirez for Helton and Nolasco.

Helton would replace Manny at Utility. My OF / U would be BJ Upton, Colby Rasmus, Chris B Young, Austin Jackson and Helton with Soriano & Ortiz on the bench (hopefully they wake up) & Beltran on the DL. It would leave me thin in the OF, but I am concerned with my SP.

Currently, I have Hamels, Wandy, Slowey, Zambrano, Pavano and Duchscherer (Bedard on the DL). Should I take the downgrade from Manny to Helton to add Nolasco? Or play pitch & ditch till someone emerges / Bedard returns? I am last in era & whip.
Thanks, Jaded in NYC

Cory,

What’s with the unhealthy obsession with Joe Saunders? Seems like you (and Mike) recommend him as a “pitch” just about every time he goes out. You also speak about him very favorably on the radio/tv/podcast/whatever shows (which I’ve been listening to on the drive home since the start of the 2009 season).

I just don’t get it, especially with you being a stats guy. Saunders had 1 lucky year in 2008 with an abnormally low BABIP and an ERA more than a full run below his xFIP, ending up with 17 wins. Other than that he’s been what he is – slightly below mediocre. His real ERAs haven’t even been good outside of that 2008 season. His K rates are downright garbage, which he could get away with a little more if he were an extreme groundball pitcher, but he’s not. His K/BB rates are not good at 1.79 for his career (BaseballHQ’s bare minimum for a pitcher is 2.00). xFIPs the last few years of 4.52, 4.65, and 4.80. He then somehow lucked into 16 wins last year, despite the same crap for numbers.

At least Siano’s Big Erv obsession is somewhat supported by the fact that Santana has some evidence of having very good skills (see his 2008 season). Saunders has no skills and never has.

What gives? Time to get off the the Saundwagon.

Howdy. I’ve got Homer Bailey, Edwin Jackson, and Ian Kennedy on a 4×4 NL Only keeper team and am getting hammered in ERA and WHIP. Is this temporary or should I dump one or two of those guys to pick up any of these guys: Pelfrey, Gorzelanny, Juan Gutierrez (as back up for Qualls), Sergio Romo, or Anibal Sanchez, Bud Norris, or Volstad.

Follow up to Sizemore Lind offer. I have no added Rauch to the Lind said and he offered Jenks to the Sizemore. Tks

maysways,

Sizemore and Lind are very close in value…it really depends on whether you think you need power or speed and from what I can tell your other core players are real balanced. I’d lean towards Lind as the Indians’ supporting cast is rather weak outside of Choo and Grady’s AVG could hurt you a bit, along with his lower RBI total.

***UPDATE With the two closers thrown in there I’d have to do it. Rauch’s inexperience as a closer makes him a risky option and Jenks, though unspectacular, has always been solid.
******************************************************
Jaded,

Answered your question under the other blog post.
***************************************************
perminator,

Hang onto your pitchers for the time being. Pelfrey’s the guy who’s tempting to pick up, perhaps for Kennedy, but I need to see one more good start. Gutierrez is a guy worth adding anyway, particularly if you’re a Qualls owner.

Zach

hey guys. im in a 10 team H2H, 6 man keeper league. 2 minor leaguers. my team consists of mauer, pujols, cano, hanley, youk, ethier, pence, wells, hawpe, coglan, frenchy, damon, weeks, theriot, headley, lince, cain, weaver, baker, romero, delarosa, big z, edwin jackson, kuroda, b wilson, dice k and beltran. with vitters and L. morrison. unfortuaneltly i have the 1st pick off the waivers this week. i hate to not pick anyone up. should i pick up a jose guillen, or a bud norris, or matsui? i like to get guys off the waivers with alot of “down the road” upside. or obviously flat out studs. anyone out there im not seeing? i know its tough without a free agent list but any sleeper looks would be great. and also any advice on my starting pitching or outfield would be appreciated. this is our 4th year and i lost in the finals in the 1st 3 years, so a title is a must.
Thanks, Jeggs in Phila.

hey 411. im in a 10 team H2H, 6 man keeper league. 2 minor leaguers. my team consists of mauer, pujols, cano, hanley, youk, ethier, pence, wells, hawpe, coglan, frenchy, damon, weeks, theriot, headley, lince, cain, weaver, baker, romero, delarosa, big z, edwin jackson, kuroda, b wilson, dice k and beltran. with vitters and L. morrison. unfortuaneltly i have the 1st pick off the waivers this week. i hate to not pick anyone up. should i pick up a jose guillen, or a bud norris, or matsui? i like to get guys off the waivers with alot of “down the road” upside. or obviously flat out studs. anyone out there im not seeing? i know its tough without a free agent list but any sleeper looks would be great. and also any advice on my starting pitching or outfield would be appreciated. this is our 4th year and i lost in the finals in the 1st 3 years, so a title is a must.
Thanks, Jeggs in Phila.

Thanks for the tip on Liriano, but someone beat me to it. Who else from this list would you pick up to boost my pitching staff? Niemann, Kazmir, Scherzer, Matusz, Feldman, Saunders, Marquis, Wade Davis, Medlen, Masterson, Paulino.

Glenn–NY

This is a follow up to my last question. Instead of adding a SP from the FA list, I plan on proposing this trade. One of the other teams indicated he wants a catcher. I plan on giving away Kurt Suzuki and either Happ or Pineiro, and get Miguel Olivo and Chris Carpenter. Should I go for it? Offense isn’t a problem; I need a solid pitcher.

Glenn–NY

Hey guys, so the slow start panic has apparently set in, in my league. It is a 6×6 H2H keeper league (extra cats OPS and QS). I have been offered Mark Teixeira, Alexei Ramirez, and Nolan Reimold for Kendry Morales, JJ Hardy and Shane Victorino. This is a move that screams “DO IT!” right? I known Tex is off to a slow start but he does this every year so I’m not worried about that. I did get Morales in the last round of my draft this year because he was a FA keeper from last season, so there was some value there. And I have Jimmy Rollins as my primary SS but he’s hurt so I’ve been using Hardy as my starter. Having traded Hardy for Ramirez it leaves me with either Alcides Escobar and Alexei Ramirez as my SS, I like both of their potential but neither one is hitting right now so this would leave a bit of a hole in my lineup. I’m not concerned about the outfield, I have Hamilton, Bay, Grady Sizemore, Torrii Hunter and I can Slot Zobrist over if need be. This seems like a no-brainer, but I’m always afraid I’ve overlooked something, any thoughts?

Thanks

Hey fellas,

Who’s the Best Waiver Wire Stash play – Dice K, Webb, Beltran?

Is it worth waiting on Webb till June, Will Beltran be himself when he comes back and can Dice K be solid for the Sox? If anything I probably need SP help

Thanks

Gentlemen,

Some gems getting dumped on the waiver wire.

12 team mixed points head to head league.

Available recently are Hunter Pence and Clay Buchholz.

My OF’s are Bourne, Ellsbury, Francoeur, C Gonzalez(benched until back fulltime)
SP’s are Hamels, Kershaw, Sherzer, Porcello, Gio Gonzalez(picked up and pitching for two starts this week), Zambrano(bench) and J.Garcia(bench)
RP’s are B.Wagner, A.Bailey(bench), J.Rauch
Other bench spot available is Howie Kendrick(Utley’s my starter)

Would hate to let go of Hendrick without trying to trade him to someone with 2B problems.

Anyone above that you would let go for Pence or Buchholz or both? I’d love to grab one as guys are dumping guys too early. Thanks for any thoughts.

Fireman Frank

Would you do this trade? Get: Lind and Oswalt. Give: Kemp. I could use a SP, but this looks like a bad trade. Am I right?

How would you rank these eligible 2B? Brian Roberts (when healthy obviously), Casey McGehee, or Placido Polanco.

Specific question at the bottom, but seeking general opinions and/or advice from experts and average joes alike.
12-team, mixed, 5×5, weekly rosters.
Here’s the team:

C Snyder,
1B Cabrera,
2B Stewart,
3B Youkilis,
SS A Ramírez,
LF Quentin,
CF Granderson,
RF Kemp,
Util Beckham,

BN A Escobar,

SP J Santana,
SP Hamels,
SP Billingsley,
SP Garza,
RP Dotel,
RP C Pérez,
RP Gregg,
P Oswalt,
P Slowey,

BN Scherzer,
BN C Lewis,
BN Lindstrom,
BN M González,
DL K Wood,
DL Webb.

Punted catcher during draft to stash DLs so streaming weekly.
Working on swapping closer for starter or as part of 2 for 1 position upgrade.

Here’s the specific question.
Offered Alexei plus any pitcher for Rollins to consolidate with added speed and pick up 2-start SPs.
He countered for Granderson.
This may upgrade my speed, but lessen power and leave me with 3 SS to try and trade off.
I can shuffle OF so I’d probably dump Escobar and use the third OF weekly like another Util, so should I?
Guys out there incude Reimold, Kubel, R Davis, Gardner, Blanks, Venable, Ankiel, etc.
Available SS include Hardy, Peralta, Izturis, Uribe, etc. and he’s temping O-Cab.
Thank you.
- Jake in Columbus

Personally I would look elsewhere than Rollins. A calf injury that is likely to take more of 4 weeks in a 2-4 week injury on an older SS who’s speed is the basis of trading for him is risky. I would believe that the injury will hurt his SB numbers quit a bit this year. Most speed guys do most of their stealing in the first half of the season and I would be afraid of reinjury to the calf which would blow the whole deal.
If you can possibly look for any other of the lesser steal guys like E. Cabrerra or even gamble on Elvis Andrus(hopefully he’ll bounce back) you would probably have to give up a lot less and the rest of your lineup looks like it can make up for any other offensive deficite that your lesser speed SS would handcuff you with. Not to mention A.Escobar would probably still be on your bench in case he comes around.
If you can play with your 2 start pitcher pickups great but your staff looks pretty damn good so be careful who you’re dropping(I’m sure you will).
Only other choice is to take the hit in steals and enjoy all the offense the nice lineup you have gives you with your staff. I’m sure the experts may disagree but I think it will still grab you a great spot at the top. Good Luck.

Fireman Frank

What’s the scarier idea? Keeping Zito on my roster after his last start or being afraid that if I drop him someone else might pick him up?

hey guys, this is a tad off the wall but due to jimmy rollins going down im puzzled as to who i should have fill his position.. i currently have orlando cabrera & alex gonzalez on my bench… & i couldn’t help but notice victor martinez’s struggles continue, and bengie’s hot streak.. Can you guys help please?

Glenn,

I’d do that Carpenter deal in a second (would personally prefer to trade Pineiro over Happ but it’s really a toss-up) and also consider adding Scherzer anyway. He’s off to a great start and is someone who simply does not belong on the waiver wire in just about any format. As for the Kemp trade, I’ll pass. Lind is solid but I’m not all that high on Oswalt this year as staying healthy has now become a major obstacle for him. Oh, and by the way, you’d be giving up the clear-cut best player in the deal who just happens to be an early first-rounder.

Zach

Jeggs,

When your infield consists of Mauer, Pujols, Cano, H-Ram and Youkilis, you better be in the finals every year! Anyway, out of the three guys you mentioned, I would go after Matsui. Guillen’s track record does not support the notion that this current hot streak will last much longer, plus he’s 34 years old and still recovering from debilitating blood clots he suffered in his legs last year. As for Norris, 2.22 is a great number to have as an ERA, but if that’s your WHIP, it’s time to look elsewhere.

Also consider this option: stand pat. With the roster you have, there really aren’t any glaring weaknesses. Your pitching isn’t as ridiculously loaded as your hitting, but there’s more than enough talent to plug any holes you may have. The bottom line is this: don’t make a move just for the sake of making a move. It would wind up hurting you more than helping.

Michael Echan
MLB.com Fantasy

I’m sitting Carlos Lee for Jose Guillen. I don’t have a question, I just had to see that in print… It still looks as ridiculous in print as it did in my head.

FrankieJay,

Your instincts are right: get the deal done before the other owner realizes the mistake he?s making. Teixeira offers far more potential because of his supporting cast, home park and switch-hitting. Don’t worry about Alexei Ramirez, because you can just slide Zobrist over to short. The problem comes with the outfield. Outside of Hunter, your outfield inspires little confidence in me. I would try to see if he’ll turn Ramirez and Reimold into one outfielder who is doing OK, but could bust out. Key in on K/BB ratios and ISO power. Even if he doesn’t budge, I’d still do the deal.
*****************************************************
Maysways,

A question like this is kind of like playing a modified game of Russian roulette, only with two rounds: one live and one rubber. Matsuzaka is the live round without a doubt. Keep in mind this stat: he has yet to post a WHIP under 1.32 during his three seasons with Boston. I feel he was more hype generated by agent Scott Boras and inflated stats from a league — and I say this with all due respect because the Japanese leagues are legitimately good — that is clearly below MLB talent-wise. Webb is the rubber, “less-lethal” round. He may not kill you, but it still could get messy. If he is completely healthy whenever he makes his return, he is by far the superior pitcher to Matsuzaka and playing in the easier NL West rather than the AL East meat-grinder.

That leaves Beltran. Yeah, Citi Field isn’t homer-friendly, but you still can expect Beltran to get his fair share of doubles. He’ll also have some combination of Jose Reyes, David Wright and Jason Bay around him. But most importantly, like the old idiom says, hitters are always more predictable than pitchers. Beltran is the option that will least likely back-fire.
******************************************************
Fireman Frank,

The move I would make would be dropping Bourn for Pence. Bourn is basically Ellsbury if you take away his power, patience and supporting cast. Last year, Ellsbury struck out six fewer times (80 to 74) compared to 2008 despite collecting 82 more plate appearances (609 to 691). In two full seasons with Houston, Bourn has struck out 251 times and has yet to crack the .400 slugging line.

But before I leave you, here’s a little opinion I have: lose Kershaw. I know everyone keeps referencing Sandy Koufax and how he overcame his lack of control and command, but you can’t expect history to repeat itself. The rates he walks batters are staggering, even more alarming than those of Scott Kazmir. If you’re looking for outfield help, I would strongly suggest to try to come up with some sort of package for Kershaw. But again, that’s just my opinion.

-Michael E.

I agree with Mike on all except, you guessed it, Kershaw. It’s very common for young pitchers, particularly power pitchers, to struggle with control. Yeah, Kershaw’s BB rate so far this season is extremely high but he did improve his control as the season went on last year, lowering his BB/9 from 5.33 pre-All-Star break to 4.04 post All-Star…still on the high side but much more respectable. Remember, the guy’s just 22 years of age. Now I’m all for making any deal if it addresses a need, so I’m by no means saying to hold onto Kershaw no matter what, but don’t sell him too low either. You won’t be getting full value by trading him now.

Zach

Glenn,

Roberts, Polanco, McGehee (still don’t trust him).
********************************************************
Jake,

I’ve always been a huge Rollins fan but like Frank am a little concerned about this injury. No way would I deal Granderson and I’d hold off on trading Alexei plus one of your top four SPs for now, at least until we know more on Rollins. I might revisit this down the road but now isn’t a good time. It’s not like you’re getting J-Roll at much of a discount.
*****************************************************
mtnman,

Hey, as much as we’ve made fun of Zito over the past couple of years, the guy’s performing at a high level. You’re totally right in thinking that someone will pick him up if you drop him. Stand pat.
****************************************************
bongbong,

I like O-Cab as a decent fill-in for Rollins. As for V-Mart, he’s not a guy you should lose patience with. Bengie is a solid offensive catcher who probably shouldn’t be on your wire but I personally have a policy of never benching my top guys unless they’re injured. Picking up Molina and looking to trade V-Mart once he gets hot isn’t a terrible idea but for now stay with what you’ve got.

Zach

Good call on Rollins guys. Thanks for the sanity check.
- Jake in Columbus

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