Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, April 28

**411 Valuable Resources**

Harden_texas.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Baker @
Scherzer

Westbrook @ Big
Erv
– With Big Erv, it’s all about the matchups

Sabathia @
Guthrie

Lester @ Cecil – I like
Cecil but not vs. the Red Sox

Braden @
Shields – Braden may make a believer out of me if he handles the
Rays

Rowland-Smith @
Meche

Peavy @
Harden
– Both with a lot to
prove

Maholm @ Narveson -
Narveson worth watching in NL-only leagues

Haeger @
Maine

Atilano @
Dempster

Benson @ G. Smith -
If there was ever a formula for a 14-12 game this is it

Hamels @
Lincecum
– Matchup of the
night!

Leake @
Paulino

Correia @
Robertson
– I’m willing to
gamble on both in this matchup

Kawakami @ Garcia
 – Amazing that the Braves are a PoD target

***Siano agrees with everything except he says ditch Harden: “I only have a tad more confidence in Peavy than I do in Harden.”

25 Comments

POD graduate? Or just a small snapshot in time?
Yesterday, Mike and Cory talked about the good start by Barry Zito this year, and Cory said that he has been pitching well since the All-Star break last year. But that isn’t entirely true. Zito’s first 4 starts this season are similar to a 4 start stretch he had last Aug. 14-29 where he posted a 1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, and 20/10 K/BB ratio in 25.1 IP (2 HR allowed). However, his next 5 starts from Sept. 4-26 brought a 5.18 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, and 23/16 K/BB ratio in 24.1 IP (4 HR allowed). I would still be leary of him reverting to his 4.50, 1.35 ways, but in his favor is the Giants’ upcoming schedule. If he continues to take every 5th start, his next 5 starts are: Colorado, @ Florida, San Diego, @ San Diego, @ Oakland. He would also get Oakland again at home in June. Just random observations.

Greg in Cincy

I have an opportunity to get Justin Smoak… I currently have Tex/Morales/Ortiz as my 1B… I’m thinking of dropping Ortiz for Smoak… is this a smart move?

Earlier in the week I declined a trade where I would have gotten Beckett, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Johnson… and I would have had to give up Longoria and AJ Burnett. The more time goes by the more I feel I may have not made the right decision. Your thoughts ?

thebartleys,

I’m fine with that. You’ve already got a solid 1B foundation so dropping an ice cold (and possibly finished) Ortiz for an elite prospect is a good gamble.
*******************************************************
Ed,

Depends on who else you have at 2B but let’s not completely overreact from Johnson’s crazy week. He’ll probably go on to have a nice year but don’t count on 30 homers:-) I’d rather have Longoria than Reynolds and see Beckett/Burnett as pretty much a wash. Beckett has looked just dreadful of late. All in all, I think you made a reasonable decision.

Zach

yesterday I pulled the trigger in Teixeira and Soto for V-Mart and Dunn. Feeling good about that one and now I am offered Halladay, Fukudome, Pineiro and Prince Fielder for Rauch, Choo, Polanco and Pablo Sandoval. I have Kinsler coming back this week and need to make room. Deal or not?

I’m wondering about some catching prospects. I’m in a 12 team NL only 5×5 and I have probably the best pitching staff in the league. My offense is good but I could use a little more especially from my 2 catching spots (now Jaramillo and kottaras). I have Jason Castro in my minor league system. Should I wait it out and hope that Kottaras and Castro get the starting job at some point in near future, or should I trade these prospects for a big bat now? I have Happ at 1$, Casey McGehee at 7$ to include in a package to get a big bat or 2 from a team that is rebuilding, but I don’t want to jump the gun. I’ve got a good team and I almost have all the pieces to take the championship this year (as long as Wright and Victorino start putting up numbers). Teams in contention around me around are trading all their prospects for that extra guy, and I’m feeling left out. So be honest with me how likely is it that Kottaras or Castro are going to help my team this year?

Hey Cory, Mike, Zach,

5×5 Roto Keeper

I have been offered J Upton for Wright or Reynolds.

MY other OF/UTil are BJ Upton, Adam Jones, Gr. Sizemore, Aramis Ramirez.

Cheers

Buy buy buy on Grady Sizemore?
What about Aramis?
What about Prince?
Thanks,
Another Mike

Also:
I drafted Gavin Floyd in literally all of my leagues this year, around 120th overall. I thought this was supposed to be his big breakout season? When do I cut and use his slot for POD? In my shallower leagues there are pitchers like C.J. Wilson, Wade Davis, Matusz, and Carmona on the wire.
Thanks,
Another Mike

Hi,

Follow up offer-

Besides the Justin Upton for Wright or Reynolds, I have also been offered J Upton/McCann for Wieters/Wright?

Is this better/worse?

Thanks again

Hi Zach,

Was there a blog written on the method to how Siano or Schwartz evaluate the POD pitchers? Is it all gut, or the combination of stats/feel/etc? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
I indulge in the gluttony of POD with some mancrushes,
looking at the pitchers historical stats, stadium/weather effects (like our good old dodger fan stadium or Petco & no wind blowing out at wrigley), recent pitcher/opposing team trends, and occasionally the umpire trends. ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..
Example – I look for starts of 7.5 K/9, 36% chance of a W min in a 12T daily transaction 1500 IP max. league.
This would have me not recommending Max Scherzer, Big Erv, Leake, or Nate Robertson and also following Narveson for history, but not for recent performance.
…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….
Sometimes the results are good, sometimes they can make me bloo.. I hope to wake up to a good morning of W’s and K’s., but sometimes get those starts that look like they are from los bastardos gargoyle’s soggy arms. I stick with the “trust sound decisions and not the outcome”, unless the outcome is consistently bad, then I may have to change my decision making…. so far so good………………………………………….

Hav Fun,
The other Zack.
in “Philly”

jace,

I like that deal for you. Tough to lose Choo and Sandoval but you’re getting the clear-cut two best players in the trade. Pull the other trigger!
*********************************************************
maysways,

I’d do Upton for Reynolds but not for Wright. I’m just not a big Reynolds fan and see his high K rate doing serious damage to his AVG in the long-run. Also, last year’s 24 steals really did come out of nowhere. He has just one so far this season. I like the Upton and McCann for Wieters and Wright trade more than Upton for Wright but would still prefer Upton for Reynolds straight up.
******************************************************************
Another Mike,

I’d buy on all three if the price is right (though the window to get Prince at a discount is rapidly closing). Least enthused about Aramis due to the injury history but he has proven to be a very consistent run producer when able to take the field. As for Floyd, I think you’ve got to give him another few starts. Still prefer Gavin over those other guys. Wade Davis is definitely someone I’d keep an eye on though.
*****************************************************
elipitt,

Depends on who you’re picking up but generally I don’t have a problem with you dropping Edwin in a 10 teamer, even if it is a keeper. Don’t see him as a great keeper anyway considering the not so friendly home ballpark and so-so K rate.

Zach

10 team mixed keeper: OK to drop Edwin Jackson?

Zack,

Here’s Cory’s response:

I look at:

1. Who is the pitcher? Is he any good? Is he someone I would ever want on my roster at all?

2. How is he doing lately? Most pitchers are in-between? sometimes they?re useful, sometimes not, how?s our guy doing?

3. Who is the opponent? What is the venue? Is it a good matchup for this pitcher?

4. What?s my reasonable best and worst case scenario if I start this guy?

Then I go with my gut. These are humans and there?s simply no fool proof way to evaluate them with 100% certainty, so I do use a little bit of the Siano ?soft factors? in the final decision.

CS

Hi Guys, been watching your Fantasy411 on MLBN religiously.
Thanks to some of your advise, I have acquired Ryan Howard, Pujols and Teixiera.
I’m in 10x tm weekly mixed league and I’m hurting with catchers, (they are all taken) I currently have Nick Hundley, should I take my chance with Doumit who is available?
Or should I trade either Howard or Tex for Mauer?
If so, who out of Tex/Howard would you trade for Mauer and would that be a fair trade or should I try to get another player in addition to Mauer?

Thanks Guys,
R.C.

R.C.

Wow. All three of those 1Bs means you’re probably overloaded in power. I think it’s a fine idea to try and get Mauer and think Howard/Tex is a totally fair offer. I’d probably keep Howard due to his HR and RBI consistency. Tex could theoretically have a down year and go .285/32/105. A down year for Howard is .250/40/120. Would rather have the Howard down year, especially since you’d be getting Mauer’s high AVG to balance out Howard’s potentially low one.

Zach

higgs,

Kottaras is the Brewers backup catcher, he?s nothing special and they like Zaun. Castro is the Astros? #1 prospect and only has J.R. Towles in front of him so he?s closer to a full-time job. Bottom line though the goal is to ?win now? so if trading a prospect is the way to do it, then do it.

Cory

Where is Becketts value at right now? Do you think maybe he’s hiding an injury? There is someone in my league(weekly 12 team h2h points) trying to sell him. My pitching staff looks like Halladay, Johan Santana, Burnett, P hughes, Slowey, Zito, Marcum, Blanton (DL obviously). We start 5 per week. Do you see a fair trade in here? I’d really like to offer him a 2 for 1 and lock up Beckett for the rest of the year.

What do you guys think about trading Jose Reyes for Carl Crawford? Currently, I’ve got Hanley at SS and Reyes in my util spot. Thanks for all the great advice!

Dear Zach, Cory, and Mike,

I need to know who I should hold on to and who I should sell high on out of these players:

Adrian Gonzalez (10-team mixed, 10-team AL Only*)
Carlos Gonzalez (10-team mixed, 20-team mixed)
Max Scherzer (10-team mixed)
Matt Capps (10-team mixed)
Kelly Johnson (10-team AL Only*, 20-team mixed)

*keeper league

I also am curious if Eric Young is worth $14 of a $250 budget in an AL Only keeper league.

Thanks,

Davis in Mass

Ed,

I’m not that high on Beckett this year but if you can get him by packaging two of, say, Hughes/Slowey/Zito/Marcum, that’s fine. I see Beckett as similar in value to Burnett, though I’d honestly rather have A.J. right now.
*********************************************************
itaintsoto,

I’m all for that deal. The appeal of Reyes is (1) he plays at a thin position and (2) he steals bases. Since you already have Hanley, that eliminates reason #1 and getting back Crawford negates reason #2. This trade is well worth it considering that Reyes still brings some injury risk.

Zach

Thanks Zach… you rock!

Davis,

I’m assuming you’re mixing up your ALs and NLs but anyway…it really depends on what you’d be getting back in potential trades but I’d say that the perceived value of Capps and Johnson will not get any higher than it is right now. Those would be the first two players I’d dangle out there just to see what you can get. Don’t make a trade just for the sake of making a trade but at the same time don’t be afraid to pull the trigger on a deal if it makes sense for you. As for EYJ, 14 bucks does seem like a bit much. Personally, I’d value him at around 10.

Zach

Well I think is Francisco Liriano is the best best pitcher in Baseball. But I also think that Hughse will be vary close to Liriano. Now Joe Mauer is the bomb. Even though he is on the bench, but after that, he’s going to be 400 ERA. With 24 home runs. I don’t think Johan Santana will be a dominant picture as we think. We play against them this year. And the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will be vary good, but the Minnesota Twins will beet Tampa. It seems that every time Detroit plays the Twins they feel scared. Come on.

Well I think is Francisco Liriano is the best best pitcher in Baseball. But I also think that Hughse will be vary close to Liriano. Now Joe Mauer is the bomb. Even though he is on the bench, but after that, he’s going to be 400 ERA. With 24 home runs. I don’t think Johan Santana will be a dominant picture as we think. We play against them this year. And the Tampa Bay Devil Rays will be vary good, but the Minnesota Twins will beet Tampa. It seems that every time Detroit plays the Twins they feel scared. Come on.

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