Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, May 5

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of “PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

________________________________________________________________________________

**411 Valuable Resources**

Penny_stl.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Porcello @
Slowey – Can’t trust Porcello right now the way he’s
going

D. Hernandez @
Pettitte

Lewis @ Cahill – Lewis
averaging better than K per IP, and great matchup

Pineiro @
Lackey – Can’t trust Pineiro right now the way he’s
going

Bannister @
F.Garcia – Garcia has been erratic but this is a favorable
matchup

Morrow @
Carmona
– These two offenses
could generate a 1-0 game or 12-11

Garza @
Lee

- Game of the night

Lilly
@
Morton

Hanson @
Atilano

Penny @ Kendrick – Penny
struggled last time out but I’m willing to try again, even vs. Phillies, based on
what he did prior to that

Zito @
Robertson

R. Lopez @ Myers -
Myers a prototypical PoD guy right now, but this is a tough matchup, so
ditch

Cook @ Richard
- Richard not a graduate yet but a slam-dunk start at home

Niese @ Cueto – I’d
gamble on both in very deep leagues, but not vanillas

D. Davis @
Billingsley

17 Comments

Hi,

I need your help again regarding a potential use of the top waiver priority. In my 14 team league, Carlos Lee was dropped today. Given his track record, and his performance in the last couple of days, do you think he will bounce back after that awful April? I’m considering dropping Corey Hart to acquire him. My remaining OF are Rios, Bruce, CarGo and Heyward

Thanks

Hey guys, is Wade LeBlanc for real? His peripherals don’t seem to suggest that he’s been unduly lucky or that he is likely to regress (more than one than would be reasonable from his current god-like state)

I have a rules question – why didnt Ryan Franklin get a Save for his work yesterday? He entered the game with one out in the ninth inning, Cardinals leading by three, bases empty. He recorded two strikeouts and only faced two batters. Why is that not a Save?

Would you do this trade? Give: Crawford. Get: Adam Jones and Scott Baker. I’m thinking no. Jones seems like a definite downgrade from Crawford, but what about Baker? My ERA was destroyed last week on pitching by lousy starts from Nolasco and Buehrle (Closers Brian Wilson and Trevor Hoffman didn’t help my ERA either). Now Scherzer put me in a massive ERA hole from which I will probably never recover from this week. Is Baker a guy that I can get more consistent quality starts from? Or should I make a counter offer involving Crawford and one of my lesser pitchers (ie Scherzer or Pineiro) for a better pitcher than Baker (ie Wainwright, Wandy, or Liriano)? To take Crawford’s place, I have Nick Swisher on the bench and Jacoby Ellsbury when he gets healthy. The only offensive category that will really suffer is SB because he and Elvis Andrus lead my team with SB. (My other power hitters are Howard, Kemp, Ludwick, Werth, McGehee). What do you think? Is Crawford my ticket to a quality starter, or am I sacrificing too much offense?

Glenn–NY

tbagerry – I think in order to get a save in that situation the Cardinals could only be up by 2 (or a man needed to be on base). There has to be as many outs left as men on base + due up.

In other words the Closer has to face the player who could tie the game up even if he gets every batter he faces out in order to get a save.

If up 3, he has to face at least 3 batters, or have a combination of 3 men on base & batters to face.

Follow up question: Zobrist comes off the waivers tomorrow. Should I pick him up and drop Aramis Ramirez or McGehee? (who is filling in while Brian Roberts is on the DL). If I drop Ramirez, then I can move McGehee to 3B because Ramirez isn’t doing me any favors. I know Zobrist is struggling, but he seems like a guy that will turn it around. Any thoughts?

Glenn–NY

Hunter Pence was just dropped in my 10 team Head-to-Head league. My current outfielders are Bruce, Holliday, Kemp, Quentin, and B.J. Upton with Zobrist in my utility slot and I just picked up Freese as a bench player (Monday/Thursday and injury fill-in guy). Would you drop any of these guys for Pence and/or use a #2 waiver slot to grab him? I’m thinking the only guy worth dropping would be Freese. Thanks, Damon in Seattle

Hey guys,
if you could only pick one, which would it be…Morrow or Carmona?
I’m leaning towards Morrow for the Ks but my league also scores QS.

Which 2 do I keep?
W. Davis
W. Leblanc
B. Matuzs

thanks, love the show… Record it daily
Josh

titou51, as a Lee owner, I’m not sure he’s gonna come back. He’s swinging at balls outside the zone 8% more often, inside the zone 6% less, and making contact outside the zone 10% less than the past few years. Not good. And this isn’t a small sample size, swing profiles stabilize around 50 AB, and he’s got 96.

I’ve had him benched every day outside of maybe two or three games in favour of people like Headley/Ludwick/Rasmus.

titou51, as a Lee owner, I’m not sure he’s gonna come back. He’s swinging at balls outside the zone 8% more often, inside the zone 6% less, and making contact outside the zone 10% less than the past few years. Not good. And this isn’t a small sample size, swing profiles stabilize around 50 AB, and he’s got 96.

I’ve had him benched every day outside of maybe two or three games in favour of people like Headley/Ludwick/Rasmus, and he’ll probably be the guy who gets dropped when Nelson Cruz comes off the DL for me.

Nevermind about Zobrist. Someone beat me to it. What about Ty Wigginton or Jose Bautista as an improvement over Aramis Ramirez?

Glenn–NY

Hey gentlemen,

Someone just dropped Clayton Kershaw in my 12 team 6×6 mixed league. Is he worry picking up even after his last outing?

Appreciate it

tbaggery,

Here’s the official rule as quoted from the MLB rule book:

The official scorer shall credit a pitcher with a save when such pitcher meets all four of the following conditions:
(a) He is the finishing pitcher in a game won by his team;
(b) He is not the winning pitcher;
(c) He is credited with at least a third of an inning pitched; and
(d) He satisfies one of the following conditions:
(1) He enters the game with a lead of no more than three runs and pitches for at least one inning;
(2) He enters the game, regardless of the count, with the potential tying run either on base, or at bat or on deck (that is, the potential tying run is either already on base or is one of the first two batters he faces); or
(3) He pitches for at least three innings.

In other words, if the pitcher does not pitch a full inning, he must enter the game with the tying run at least on deck. That’s why Franklin didn’t get the save.

Zach

Glenn,

I’d pass on that trade. You’re giving up the best player in the deal and not getting a sufficient enough return. I like Baker and think he’ll end up turning in a fine season but he’s not a huge difference maker, certainly not adequate compensation for the massive downgrade from Crawford to Jones. If you think you can afford losing Crawford, how about Crawford for CC? Crawford for King Felix? That’s the level of pitcher you should be asking for.

As for Zobrist, feel free to claim him for added depth but no way should you drop Aramis for him. Why exactly are you more confident that Zobrist (one very good season) will pick it up than you are in Ramirez (proven high-end run producer) doing the same? Be careful!
*************************************************
Damon,

Yeah, despite Freese’s hot hitting, I’d drop him for Pence. Hunter is definitely worth a roster spot and once he snaps out of this slump you may even wind up playing him over a guy like Quentin.
****************************************************
Josh,

Both Morrow and Carmona are prone to blowups but I agree with what you said about Morrow. 25 Ks over his last three starts is too impressive of a stat to ignore. There might be a little more risk with Morrow as he doesn’t have as much big league experience as Carmona, but it’s not like Fausto has been the model of consistency over the past couple of seasons! As for your other question, I’d go with Davis and Matusz.
**************************************************
Glenn,

Again, hold onto Ramirez. As a wise person once said, the season is a marathon, not a sprint.
******************************************************
jaayoub,

Yes, go ahead and grab him before someone else beats you to it. It’s amazing how so many people follow the “what have you done for me lately?” approach without seeing the bigger picture.

Zach

Trade Adrian Gonzalez for Jason Heyward? Have Morneau at 1st, Span, Markakis, and DeJesus in OF (awful, I know).

14 team, mixed, 7×7, hth. Can keep 1 player for next season.

Thanks. Love the show.

A

Adam,

As much as I like Heyward, I always try to avoid trading for guys when their stock is sky high. Adrian is a very steep price to pay for any rookie, and Heyward is no exception. Wait it out until the asking price becomes more reasonable. It’s not like you’re going to choose Heyward as your one keeper anyway.

Zach

titou51,

I feel that it would be a bad decision to drop Hart for Carlos Lee, and I have numerous reasons. First off is the age difference, with Hart being 28 and Lee being 34. Hart is also the far better athlete with no major injury history (excuse me while I run to find the nearest piece of wood to knock on) while Lee is, well, not so much. Hart also has a far better supporting cast in the lineup. Finally, and most importantly, are the raw numbers. Hart has produced, Lee hasn’t. Lee was projected to have the better season, but when you figure in their age and body types, Hart has a considerably higher upside, so let someone else take their chances with Lee.
***************************************************
Frankiejay,

LeBlanc is a little tough to figure out. Of course, it’s always great when your HR/9 ratio is 0.0, but that is inevitably going to climb, especially with a GB-rate of 39.4. His 1.33 WHIP seems a little high, but then you take a look at his BABIP of .353 and his home park (Petco) and you can reasonably guess that his WHIP may decrease. A strikeout rate of 7.7 is good, just as is a FIP (fielding-independent pitching, graded on same scale as ERA) of 2.15 is grand as well. Some sort of regression should be expected, but so far, LeBlanc is pretty usable for almost any format.

Mike E.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 257 other followers

%d bloggers like this: