June 2010

Pitch or Ditch Category Chart Version III

Hey everyone,

Here’s the third installment of the Pitch or Ditch category chart, put together by the 411 brain trust of Cory, Mike and myself:

PoD chart June 29.pdf

Some of these decisions were tough but after much deliberation we think we got them right!

Just a reminder as to how it works:

We’ve divided all the starting
pitchers in the Majors into four groups:
Aces, Pitch or Ditch graduates, Pitch or Ditch guys and DTM’s (players
you shouldn’t even think about starting). Keep in mind that these
classifications are geared towards 12-team mixed leagues and are of
course subject to change as the season progresses. We’ll be posting
updated versions every two weeks.

-Zach

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 1

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2

Garland.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Marcum @ Masterson
Rowland-Smith @ Sabathia
Cahill @ Arrieta – Arrieta struggling too much to use even at home vs. A’s
Niemann @ Pavano
Wilson @ Weaver - Wilson’s command problems will cost him at some point
TBD @ Silva
J.Santana @ Livan – Johan’s track record earns more leeway… not Livan’s
Hamels @ McCutchen
Wolf @ Hawksworth – Wolf’s OK at home vs. weak offenses, but not here
Bumgarner @ Cook
Moehler @ Garland – not a big Garland fan but home vs. Houston seems reasonable

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, June 30

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2

Gorzelanny_2010.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Oliver @ Slowey – Streaky Slowey getting hammered lately
Sheets @ Millwood – Sheets settling in at mediocrity
King Felix @ Vazquez
Litsch @ Laffey
Garza @ Matsuzaka – Dice-K not too bad last time and Rays are scuffling
Peavy @ Greinke – awesome matchup
Beltre @ Kazmir – Kazmir more walks than K’s in last 5 starts
Halladay @ Harang – Harang scratching back to relevance but not here
Wandy @ Bush
TBD @ Suppan
Lincoln @ Gorzelanny – great matchup for Gorzo’s rotation return
Francis @ Richard
Padilla @ J.Sanchez - Padilla risky but good matchup
Pelfrey @ Volstad
Martin @ Jurrjens

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, June 29

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2


Ely.jpg
ZACH’S PICKS

Braden @
Matusz – Braden inconsistent of late but I’ll pitch him here in favorable matchup

Lee @
Hughes

Morrow @
Carmona – Morrow looking like a POD grad…for now

Shields @
Lackey – Shields at Fenway a little scary so can’t fault you if you opt to sit this one out

Floyd @
Bannister – Floyd on quite a roll

Galarraga @ Blackburn

Feldman @
Pineiro – Pineiro: 3 ER over last three starts

Takahashi @
Robertson – Takahashi erratic lately

Blanton @
Leake – Tough matchup for Leake but he’s earned the nod

TBD @
Lowe

Karstens @
Lilly

Myers @
Gallardo

Willis @
Wainwright

Hammel @
LeBlanc – Still don’t fully trust Hammel but in Petco you have to pitch him

Ely @
Cain
– Ely got back on track last time out and SF lineup doesn’t scare me

***Cory says:

Pitch
Matsuz. He’s been OK lately and the A’s are a weak offense.

Ditch
Shields. He’s been pretty bad lately and the Red Sox are a
machine.

Pitch
LeBlanc. Have to go with him at home vs. a weak road offense missing their best
hitter.

 

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, June 26-28

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2


Burnett_2010.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Hawksworth @
Davies

Banks @ Wilson -
Pads a good respite from Wilson’s command
problems

Kennedy @
Price – still like Kennedy but scary matchup vs. tough AL
lineup

Hamels @ Marcum -
moving in opposite directions…

Livan @ Bergesen -
don’t blame anyone for pitching Livan here

Silva @ F.Garcia -
Big Chief quietly compiling a solid PoD season

Cook @
Saunders

TBD @ Cahill -
love Cahill vs. scuffling Pirates

Pavano @ J.Santana -
tough matchup for Pavano but he’s earned it

Scherzer @ Kawakami – might
be Kawakami’s last start?

Fister @ Wolf
– Wolf pitching well, M’s not scoring at all

Buchholz @ J.
Martinez

Masterson @
LeCure

Burnett @ Kuroda -
Burnett thinks his issues are only mechanical, we’ll see

Garland @
Johnson

SUNDAY

Moyer @ Cecil
– tough matchup for Cecil, but he’s earned it

Atilano @
Guthrie

Lopez @ W.
Davis

Dempster @
Danks

J.
Garcia
@
Chen

Chacin @ Big Erv -
Big Erv too inconsistent to trust, even at home

Ohlendorf @ G.
Gonzalez

Oswalt @ Hunter -
nice
matchup for Hunter at home

Talbot @
Arroyo – Arroyo hot + weak opponent = PoD heaven!

Baker
@
Niese
– Baker hasn’t picked it up like I’d hoped but I have
faith

Verlander @ Hanson -
awesome

Vargas @ Narveson – Vargas
pitching well everywhere right now

Lester @
Lincecum
– so, so
awesome

Pettitte @ Kershaw
-
nice

Latos @ An.
Sanchez
-
sweet

MONDAY

Romero @
Westbrook

Buehrle @ Lerew – this ain’t
interleague but Buehrle is hot

Bonderman @
Liriano
– can Bonderman
carry momentum from recent easy schedule?

Strasburg @
Hudson
-
nice

Dickey @
Nolasco
– Nolasco turning
the corner lately?

Kendrick @
Cueto – Cueto hot enough to earn tough matchup

Maholm @ Wells -
Can’t trust Wells even home vs. weak Pirates

Norris @ Parra
– Parra rolling since rejoining rotation

Haren @
Carpenter

Jimenez @ Correia – Correia
better last time, but limited upside

Ely @ Zito -
Ely needs one more to re-earn the trust

 

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Hawksworth @
Davies

Banks @ Wilson

Kennedy @
Price

Hamels @
Marcum – Interesting nugget: Marcum 2.52 ERA at home vs. 4.12 ERA on road

Livan @
Bergesen – Coming off dominant start vs. KC, Livan gets another favorable matchup

Silva @ F.
Garcia
– Disaster alert for Silva but you still have to pitch him

Cook @
Saunders – Saundo too inconsistent to trust

TBD @
Cahill – Cahill 3 ER or less in nine of his 11 starts this year and gets PIT at home

Pavano @ J.
Santana

Scherzer @
Kawakami

Fister @
Wolf
- Wolf erratic but let’s pick on the Mariners

Buchholz @ J.
Martinez

Masterson @
LeCure – Masterson worth considering in deeper formats but I’ll play it safe

Burnett @
Kuroda – I’m benching Burnett until he shows some positive signs

Garland @
Johnson
– Garland’s coming back to Earth

SUNDAY

Moyer @
Cecil – Moyer outstanding of late but this is a tough matchup…Cecil also too risky

Atilano @
Guthrie – Guthrie a decent gamble

Lopez @ W.
Davis

Dempster @
Danks

J. Garcia @
Chen

Chacin @ Big
Erv – Erv risky but quality starts in six of last eight

Ohlendorf @ G. Gonzalez – Easy matchup for Gio

Oswalt @
Hunter

Talbot @
Arroyo – Might want to take a chance on Arroyo but he always teases us

Baker @
Niese – I’m sticking with Baker but passing on Niese, who’s coming off terrible performance vs. DET

Verlander @
Hanson – Can Hanson get back on track? I think so

Vargas @
Narveson

Lester @
Lincecum
– Hopefully, this one lives up to its billing

Pettitte @
Kershaw
– When Pettitte made his MLB debut, Kershaw was 7 years old!

Latos @ An.
Sanchez

MONDAY

Romero @
Westbrook

Buehrle @
Lerew – Buehrle on a roll…Pitch

Bonderman @
Liriano

Strasburg @ Hudson

Dickey @
Nolasco
– Dickey magic bound to run out sooner or later, no? Nolasco career vs. Mets: 4-6  5.58 ERA  1.50 WHIP but still can’t bring myself to bench him…yet

Kendrick @
Cueto

Maholm @
Wells – I’ve lost confidence in Wells for now

Norris @
Parra

Haren @
Carpenter

Jimenez @
Correia

Ely @
Zito – Ely no sure thing but let’s take a chance here

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, June 24

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2

Carmona_2010_2.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Cain @
Wandy – Wandy’s not
exactly DTM but has to show some signs before I’ll pitch
him

LeBlanc @
Garza – Garza coming off an awful start but still worth using at home vs.
Padres

Lowe @ Floyd -
Both are hot, but I only trust one of them to keep that up

Lilly @ King
Felix

Robertson @
Millwood

Wainwright @
Morrow
– Morrow is on a
roll and throwing strikes

Karstens @
Feldman

TBD @ Kazmir -
Kazmir gradually improving and Dodgers struggle vs.
lefties

Carmona @ Blanton – I
could go either way on Carmona but my gut says “ditch”

Blackburn @
Gallardo

Galarraga @ Takahashi – giving
Galarraga a pass for the last one

Dice-K @ Hammel
- Dice-K never seems to do well in his DL returns

***Zach says “I’ll take a chance on Carmona in Philly. He’s been very consistent and has allowed just six homers in his 14 starts. Longballs are the main concern when pitching anyone at Citizens’ Bank Park, so this stat is encouraging.”

 

The Grady Twitter Debate

Hey guys,

We here at the 411 thought you might enjoy reading this sequence of recent comments on Cory’s Twitter page. It starts out with CS answering a question relating to Grady Sizemore and then quickly evolves into more…..Zach

@brandonwarne52: Deal Kubel for Sizemore in
dynasty league? Currently rebuilding, in 16th place out of 19
teams.

@schwartzstops: Grady is to 2011 as Beltran
is to 2010? Not interested in finding out.

@ckrez: Grady same as Beltran? Age difference
and Beltran injury history make that an unfair
comp

@schwartzstops: Oh? Grady has no injury
history? Microfracture = all bets are off.

@brandonwarne: Still, on 2 year plan
Sizemore brings speed, Kubel doesn’t.

@schwartzstops: Will he? Show me a
successful return from microfracture in MLB

@asperusual: Andrew Bailey had
microfracture

@ schwartzstops: Very true, fair point!
Though I don’t think he’s a good comp for Grady/Beltran (not CF, no
SB’s)

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, June 23

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2


Parra_manny.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

Cueto @
Mazzaro – Cueto
better last time out, should continue recovery vs.
A’s

Nolasco @ Matusz -
Nolasco will continue
recovery vs. O’s

Carpenter @
Romero

Correia @
Shields
– struggling Correia bad gamble vs. Rays (Garza may start instead of
Shields, BTW)

Maholm @
Nippert

Hudson @
Buehrle – Buehrle
pitching better but not chancing him vs. Braves

Ely @ Pineiro
- John Ely, meet Earth. Welcome back. Pineiro stays hot at
home.

Wells @
Lee

– Cliff Lee has a 67/4 K/BB ratio. Think about that.

Bannister @
Strasburg

Westbrook @
Kendrick

Bonderman @
Dickey – Dickey’s
been doing it with smoke and mirrors

Liriano @ Parra -
with
a 23-7 K-BB ratio since returning to the rotation, Parra is passing the
tests

Lackey @
Jimenez
– Lackey not great
yet but scratching back to relevance

Vazquez @
Willis

Zito @
Myers
– draft day bargain
vets still getting it done

 

SIANO’S PICKS

Cueto @
Mazzaro

Nolasco @ Matusz

Carpenter @ Romero

Correia @ Shields - Shields was cut in a
ten team, I scooped him up.

Maholm @
Nippert

Hudson @ Buehrle – Mark is on a roll and
owns NL. 

Ely @ Pineiro

Wells @ Lee

Bannister @ Strasburg – KC has been
pesky to me all year, is it possible this is the chosen one’s first loss? Gut
feeling is all. Gotta pitch. 

Westbrook @ Kendrick – Kendrick blue plate
special, shut down Yanks on road and gets Tribe at home, but you’re chasing a
win.

Bonderman @ Dickey – Ha, this is a
good a matchup, a specimen of POD

Liriano @
Parra

Lackey @ Jimenez – I think I’ve
been right on Lackey but Rockies are hurting so can’t say
ditch. 

Vazquez @ Willis – I’m sold on Javy
for now.

Zito @ Myers – Cory will say pitch Myers, I’m
fasting. 

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, June 22

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2

Braden.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

An.Sanchez @
Guthrie

J.Garcia @
Cecil
– great matchup of
two impressive lefties

Latos @ W. Davis -
Hellickson watch is
on but Davis was better last time out

Ohlendorf @
Hunter – hoping Hunter’s hip is healthy

Hanson @
Danks
– Danks 11 of 13
QS

Arroyo @ Braden -
don’t trust either right now

Kershaw @ Big Erv -
Don’t like the whole DTM thing but simply do not trust
Erv

Dempster @
Vargas
– Vargas a
must-start at home

Talbot @
Moyer

Lerew @
Atilano

Verlander @
Niese
– Gotta ride Niese
while he’s hot and throwing strikes

Baker @
Narveson

Lester @
Chacin

Pettitte @
Haren
– The K’s are still
there so I still trust Haren

Lincecum @ Oswalt -
great rematch of Lincecum’s
3rd MLB start, remember?

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, June 19-21

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next guy. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

POD

Category Chart #2

Slowey_2010.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Pelfrey @
Hughes
– Anyone who guessed
these guys would be competing for their 10th win on June 18, please raise your
hand. Yeah, I thought so.

Cain @
Litsch

Padilla @
Wakefield

Jackson @ Porcello
– Porcello unsafe at any speed

LeCure @ King
Felix

Weaver @
Lilly
– Weaver better at
home but Cubs better vs. lefties

Floyd @ Martin -
would like to trust Floyd but he’s teased us before this
year

Slowey @
Hamels
– tough matchup for
Slowey but he’s been hot

Huff @
Karstens

Lewis @
Moehler

Greinke @ Medlen
-
Greinke fixed his slider last time out, bad news for the
Braves

Niemann @ Volstad – Niemann
starting to regress to the mean?

Sheets @
Wainwright

Millwood @
Richard – Richard is easy money at home vs. the O’s

Gallardo @
Francis
– I trust both of
them in Coors

SUNDAY

Wolf @
Cook

Kennedy @ Scherzer  -
Scherzer finally showing some consistency

J.Santana @
Sabathia
– two best lefties
of last 10 years, awesome

J.Sanchez @
Marcum
– PoD
superstars!

Harang @
Rowland-Smith – Nope, don’t trust Harang here, either

Kuroda @
Buchholz
– Tough matchup for
Kuroda but he’s underrated

Price @
Johnson

Davies @ Kawakami -
either of these guys could throw a 6-hit shutout, or get knocked out in the
3rd

F.Garcia @ Lannan -
The Chief has been pitching well but I don’t like this
matchup

Pavano @ Halladay -
Yep,
I even trust Pavano here

Masterson @
Lincoln

Wilson @
Paulino
– Paulino burned us
last time but Texas not a great road offense

Cahill @ Suppan -
Cahill continues to roll

Saunders @ Zambrano -
eeewwww

Arrieta @ Garland -
Arrieta enjoying the two-start week vs. SF and SD

MONDAY


 Leake @
G.Gonzalez

Chen @
Livan

Burnett @ R. Lopez – I think
A.J. will enjoy being back in the NL

***Siano says:

For Saturday:Agree
on all except Slowey. Phils are feeling it again.”

For Sunday: I’ll
defer to CS on Pavano…Via Con Dios. Masterson
a blue plate special, it’s just the Pirates after
all. Pitch
on Garland. He’s beaten way better teams at home this year.”

For Monday:Agree
on all even though Livan will probably throw a gem.”

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