Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, September 4-6

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next day. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

PoD chart September 2.pdf

Top 10 by position for 2011

Zambrano_carlos_2010.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Rzepczynski @ Vazquez
– not risking Vazquez in his rotation return

Weaver @
Cahill

Lewis @
Pavano

Shields @ Guthrie -
both present plenty of risk and reward… gamble accordingly

Floyd @
Lackey
– Siano-style
gut-check on Lackey… strong finisher

Porcello @
Chen

Talbot @
Pauley

Mejia @
Coleman

Wood @
Wainwright – conservatism dictates “ditch” on Wood

Hammel @ Garland -
Johnny Sinkers worth using at home

Bush @
Halladay

Lannan @
Maholm

Jurrjens @
Johnson
– Jair coming off terrible start and struggles on the
road

Norris @ R. Lopez – Norris
risky in Arizona but big upside here

Cain @
Lilly

 

SUNDAY

Cecil @ Hughes -
high-risk,
high-reward on both

Buehrle @
Beckett

Davis @ Matusz
– Matusz is on a roll, go with it

Galarraga @ Davies – Galarraga
hot and Royals not

Wilson @
Blackburn

Big
Erv

@ Mazzarodon’t trust Erv but it’s the A’s

Masterson @ King
Felix

Minor @
Sanabia

Wolf @
Kendrick

Marquis @
Morton

Bailey @
Carpenter

Niese @ Zambrano -
don’t trust Zambrano AT ALL

De La Rosa @
Richard

Happ @ Saunders – Happ
risky but has been red hot with Astros

J. Sanchez @
Kuroda

 

MONDAY

Jackson @
Scherzer
-
awesome

Arrieta @ Burnett -
don’t trust A.J. just yet

Hunter @
Romero – don’t trust Hunter vs. homer-happy Jays

O’Sullivan @
Liriano

Vargas @
Anderson

Niemann @
Lester

Carrasco @
Haren – Carrasco sharp his first time, let’s see it
again

Pelfrey @ Zimmermann
– both risky but Zimmermann has upside

An. Sanchez @
Oswalt

Hanson
@
Karstens – hope you didn’t give up on Hanson!

Westbrook @
Gallardo
– Gallardo should be
OK, hang with ‘em

Wandy @
Dempster

Harang @
Jimenez

Bumgarner @
Kennedy

Volstad @
TBD

Monasterios @ LeBlanc
– LeBlanc too homer-prone right now, even at home

***Siano says:

SAT:
Pitch Shields (red hot), ditch Norris (don’t trust enough here). Agree on
rest.

 

SUN:
Wade Davis looks like he has his feet back under him. I’d trot him out there.
Agree on all, even Big Z.

 

MON:
I’m sticking with AJ coming off season high 8 Ks. Agree on
rest.

***Zach says “Pitch Shields (on a roll), ditch Norris (don’t trust him), pitch Big Z (I like picking on the Mets lineup). Agree on the rest of Cory’s picks.”

 

18 Comments

How would you rank these grads? De La Rosa, Bumgarner, Gio Gonzalez, Vargas, Hunter, Cecil, Lilly, Romero, Hanson (the last 3 are mine). I have one week left until I start the playoffs for the last 2 weeks of the season. Any improvement in pitching would be great.

Glenn–NY

Glenn,

Those guys are all very close in value. My top three, in order, would be Lilly, Gio, and Hanson, with Romero and Cecil close behind. I’d probably give the edge to Romero over Cecil.

Zach

Hey guys I need some keeper help. I’ve been looking over your early 2011 list (thanks btw!) but I still can’t decide. 12tm 6×6 (OPS and HD – making hitters even more valuable). Only 6 keepers but I have Miggy, Crawford, Wright, Tulo, Utley, Teix, Ichiro, C Young, Latos, Hanson, Broxton. I figure the first 5 are for sure. Then I don’t know who to trade to teams with weak keepers for help the rest of the year (in first right now but terrible w WHIP and ERA) and who to keep. I was thinking of trading up for an ace to keep, but am I better off just keeping 6 hitters? I was offered Kemp/JJ/Lilly/S Drew for Latos/Teix/K Johnson but am worried Latos/Teix will outproduce Kemp/JJ for this year… Thanks guys!

Dan,

I’d just follow the simple route and keep Tex. He’s hands down the best player of that bunch and while the trade offer is intriguing, Tex is as consistent as they come…and consistency is the main quality to look for when deciding on keepers.

Zach

zach/cory,

with kinsler and a-rod on the shelf, and uggla hurt, I went out and got Ryan Rayburn and Neil Walker, both of whom have been completely raking. CanNOT take them out of the lineup, right?

have been biding my time over the past two weeks, with the #1 seed locked up, but the playoffs start on monday, and I need some roster flexibility back. Would love your thoughts in general, and specifically on the dead weight you might cut (from IF or OF).

10 team, mixed, H2H, keeper.

Have been holding as many as 3 offensive bench players for the past week or so, because I have been able to, with a lock on the #1 seed, but now I’m feeling pressure to get Kinsler, A-Rod and Uggla back in the lineup, rightfully so, and I’m running out of room, and depend on PoD flexibility……

thanks guys,

J from BG

c- mccann
1- votto
2- kinsler
S- infante
3- wright
MI – uggla
CI – walker
OF- Victorino, Bruce, V. Wells, C. Hart, Rayburn,
Util – Papi
Be (today) – Byrd, Ludwick, D. Lee
DL – A-Rod

Sabathia
Garza
Gallardo
DLR

Lidge
Papelbon
Wagner
Axford
Uehara

Quick and painless question for yu guys… Who to pick up for playoffs… in a twelve team league.. Hart was dropped and cleared waivers.. or Ryan Raburn.. I have a bye week and Rayburn only plays 5 games in week 24.. Hart plays 6 and has no days off in the championship weeks.. So to get me the ring who should i grab?? You guys have been so helpful.. thanks so much

Hi Big Z, couple of bits and pieces for ya.

Im in 2nd place despite a train wreck of a middle infield this year, now have to choose 3 between N Walker, Nix, Peralta, and Andrus (might sound daft but only 2 steals in last 30gms) for 2B, short, and MI … walker, peralta and stick with andrus u reckon?

Also now Dustin’s done for the year, my DL spot is open again…whats the best way to find DL players returning soon who should still have value? By that I mean hitters, or starters returning soon… or do you have any names returning soon who could be out there.

Cheers

Big Barry,
East End, England

I know it might be late to ask but which 2 well I get the lowest ERA from for the rest of the season.

Jeff Niemann, Travis Wood, Vicente Padilla, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, Jhouys Chacin, Jonathan Niese, Barry Enright, or Colby Lewis

Jon from Texas

who would you start the rest of the season….I have infante but McGehee has just became available….thx

It’s playoffs time! And Leo Nunez gets himself demoted. So my only choices here are Clay Hensley or Koji Uehara as replacements. I currently have Soria and Soriano. I would like to keep a 3 man closer staff. Who do you recommend or should I just stick with Nunez and do the wait and see?

jaynew,

Ludwick has done very little since getting dealt to the Padres, so he’d actually be the guy I’d drop in order to activate A-Rod. This way, you can continue playing Raburn while holding onto Walker as insurance for both A-Rod and Kinsler.
**********************************************
deamonizer,

Hope you went with Hart! He would’ve been my choice…pretty nice day for him today.
********************************************
Big Barry,

Agreed. Sit Nix. He’s been very inconsistent this year and doesn’t really offer that much upside.

The best way to find about impact guys who will soon be coming off the DL is to watch the Fantasy 411:-) What did you expect me to say! At this point in the season, it’s tough to find difference makers who are currently on the DL but expected to return before the end of the season but the injury updates page on our site is a useful tool to at least start the process:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/fantasy/wsfb/news/injuries.jsp?tcid=mm_mlb_fantasy

Zach

Hi guys,
never thought Id ask THIS. But: is Broxton droppable in a non keeper mxd vanilla league. Any chances 4 any more saves this season? I doubt it so bad. THX!!
Danny, from Munich, Germany

Hi guys,
never thought Id ask THIS. But: is Broxton droppable in a non keeper mxd vanilla league. Any chances 4 any more saves this season? I doubt it so bad. THX!!
Danny, from Munich, Germany

sage wisdom, zach…my thoughts exactly…thank you….

Pedro Feliz or Troy Glaus the rest of the way?

– Pat

Jon,

Predicting ERA is very tough as a lot depends on matchups but if I had to pick two I’d say Erv and Chacin. Both are having solid seasons overall and play in pitcher-friendly divisions.
***********************************************
alshan,

Go with McGehee. Aside from AVG, he’s the far superior player…pretty much a no-brainer in my mind.
********************************************
hmangnx,

Although I’d still hold onto Nunez and Hensley, Uehara’s definitely worth a pickup. He’s pitched at a high level all season and is doing a fine job since taking over closer duties. I expect him to remain the Orioles’ closer for the rest of the season. Who knows what will happen in Florida! Start Uehara but try to keep Nunez and Hensley on board if possible.
**********************************************
Danny,

I’d have a very hard time dropping Broxton but if you desperately need the roster spot, it’s not a crazy idea. As of now, Joe Torre sounds adamant that Broxton will not return to closing anytime soon…and really, how much time is left in the season, four weeks? So MAYBE he gets two weeks worth of saves? Try exhausting all your other options first, but if this is the only way that you can create roster space, I won’t stop you from cutting ties with the preseason #1 fantasy closer.

Zach

what happenned to tuesday pitch or ditch

Pat,

That’s a tricky one as Feliz clearly has the playing time advantage but his production is so minimal that I wouldn’t be surprised if Glaus puts up the better counting stats from here on out even in part-time duty. I’ll take Glaus.
**********************************************
fugate,

A lot of Tuesday’s probables were TBD when I put up the POD post on Friday and no show yesterday…figured you guys could live without it for a day:-)

Zach

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