Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, September 11-13

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next day. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

PoD chart September 2.pdf

Top 10 by position for 2011

Matusz_brian.jpg
CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Davis @ Romero

Guthrie @
Scherzer

Davies @ Jackson

Blackburn @
Carrasco

Burnett @ Hunter – too risky for
either

Lackey @
Anderson

King Felix @ Big
Erv
– overall Big Erv has been solid
this year if a little erratic

An.
Sanchez
@
Marquis

Kendrick @
Pelfrey

Bumgarner @
Stauffer

Westbrook @
Hanson

Ely @ Wandy

Dempster @ Wolf – Dempster very
risky, only if chasing K’s and wins

Morton @
Harang

R. Lopez @ Jimenez

 

ZACH’S PICKS

SUNDAY

 

Tillman @
Verlander

Slowey @
Talbot – Not a Slowey fan but this is a decent matchup for him if you need wins

Niemann @
Marcum
– Niemann absolutely awful of late

O’Sullivan @ F.
Garcia – Favorable spot for Freddy but let’s take the conservative route

Moseley @
Lee – Lee no sure thing vs. Yanks but how can you bench him?

Vargas @
Haren – Vargas slumping lately and much better at home (2.58 ERA) than on the road (5.27 ERA)

Beckett @
Braden – Still don’t trust Beckett but this is a great matchup

Oswalt @
Niese – Niese = high-risk medium-reward…ditch

Burres @
Cueto

Volstad @
Zimmermann – Zim not a bad gamble if you’re willing to roll the dice

Padilla @
Figueroa – Figueroa a decent option in deeper formats vs. erratic Dodgers lineup

Coleman @
Gallardo

Kennedy @
Chacin – Kennedy on a roll but I’m passing on the HR prone pitcher at Coors

Lincecum @ Latos

Lohse @ T.
Hudson

 

MONDAY

 

Gonzalez @
Bannister

Rzepczynski @
Matusz – Matusz pitching well but he’s a risky play here

Sabathia @
Price
– Cy Young showdown!

Lester @
Fister
- Fister great at home but I’d be careful here

Maya @
Lowe – Lowe extremely inconsistent this year and offers little upside

Enright @
Arroyo - Enright coming off his worst start of the year

McDonald @ TBD - McDonald an OK option in deeper formats

Blanton @
Miller – Blanton locked in right now but too erratic to trust

Narveson @
Myers – Narveson worth using here

Silva @ J.
Garcia
– I’m willing to give Garcia another chance

Luebke @ Francis

11 Comments

I don’t know if you guys are already done for this weekend, but I was hoping to get some PoD advice for this coming week. As of now, I’m in my league’s playoffs. For my 5 starters, I definitely plan on starting Kershaw since he will face both SF on 9/14 and Col on 9/19 that week. I could use your help with the other 4. Which 4 pitchers have the most favorable matchups?

Gallardo: 9/18 @ SF
Gio Gonzalez: 9/14 @ KC
Hanson: 9/17 @ NYM
Romero: 9/17 @ Bos
Pavano: 9/16 @ CWS
Lilly 9/15 or 9/16 @ SF (I don’t know how Kershaw’s pushed back start from Sunday to Tuesday affects the rest of the rotation).

After this coming week, the last two weeks are combined into one, which means that all of my guys have the potential of getting 2 or 3 starts in the final week. Which 5 should I start based upon these matchups?

Gallardo: 9/23 vs Fla, 9/28 @ NYM, 10/3 @ Cin
Kershaw: 9/25 @ Ari, 10/1 vs Ari
Gonzalez: 9/20 vs CWS, 9/25 vs Tex, 9/30 @ Sea
Hanson: 9/22 @ Phi, 9/28 vs Fla
Romero: 9/23 vs Sea, 9/28 vs NYY, 10/3 @ Min
Pavano: 9/21 vs Cle, 9/27 @ KC, 10/2 vs Tor
Lilly: 9/21 vs SD, 9/26 @ Ari, 10/2 vs Ari

I really appreciate all of the help this season. Note that these dates and matchups are based on the 5 man rotation setup, but I’m not sure if teams will mix this up later on. Thanks again.

Glenn–NY

411 Hotline, help please. Rollins seems to be done, with Price stuck in a holding pattern and my finals campaign is starting Mon 13th. Looking for Mr Right Now, for hitting and pitching. Head to head vanilla 12 team mixed.
For Rollins:JJ Hardy, Bonifacio (pos eligibility), Keppinger, Uribe (off waivers 12th), Furcal (who may be rested).
For Price, looking for possible 2 start pitcher if a quality one is available: Narveson, JA Happ, Porcello, Nick Blackburn (?) and Duensing.
I also just dropped Broxton for Brandon Lyon as I really need someone who can pick up a save and Hughes for Myers.
Playing for the Shower,
G

I don’t follow why Blackburn is a Ditch for this week. He has 3 quality starts in a row with a 1.99 ERA and is going against the Indians. Im a Phillies fan, so I know that Carrasco is garbage too. Can you tell me your reasoning for avoiding him so I dont make the mistake of playing/not playing him? Thanks!

Hey guys just enjoying my bye week one more day.
But as for next week this is my starting pitching going in week 24 the second round of playoffs.

Price,Lester,Garcia,Arroyo,Dickey-pitching twice
Floyd,Weaver,Oswalt,Jimenez,Duensing-pitching once

its a daily league and I am wondering if any of these guys are better to own than my current pitchers for the remainder of the playoff season.
Happ,Blanton,Zambrano,Bumbarner,Kennedy,Matusz,Guthrie, or Enright.

Should i drop maybe Floyd or Arroyo for any of these or Does my SP look in tip top shape?? Thanks so much you guys have been a huge help this year.

One more quick question.. My batting avg falls so much when I use a catcher and currently I dont have one… Should I pick one of these up? which one is the best to not hurt my avg? My hitting is pretty stacked also…

Soto,Yadier Molina,A.J.,Olivo,Ruiz, or Hundley

my hitters are
1b Howard
2b Cano
SS Jeter
3b Longoria
OF Cargo
OF Chris Young
OF Hart
Util Adrian Gonzalez
B Pierre
B Huff

thanks again love the show

Glenn,

Gallardo, Gio and Hanson are must-starts in my mind as they all have very favorable matchups. I’d definitely pass on Romero as he’s been shaky of late and has had trouble vs. the Red Sox this year. Pavano vs. Lilly is a toss-up but I’ll give the slight edge to Lilly…better matchup and higher K rate. Let’s wait a little longer before thinking about next week…probables can change and we’ll get to monitor these pitchers for a couple more starts.
*************************************************
Jeff,

Not sure about Cory’s reasons for ditching Blackburn but personally I don’t have a huge problem with you pitching him. It’s just that at this point in the season we tend to be more conservative with our picks but if you have innings to spare, sure, go for it.

Zach

deamonizer,

That’s a very strong staff but I’d think about dropping Floyd for Bumgarner due to both the AL vs. NL factor and Floyd’s overall inconsistency.

As for the catchers, Soto is the most valuable player of that group but if AVG is your sole concern, Ruiz is the guy to pick up. He hasn’t batted below .273 over any full month that he’s played this season while Soto has been rather streaky.

Zach

Hey 411

Since last time I spoke to you. Talks have advanced and now the other guy is really taking into consideration a theoretical offer I made. Miggy, Rios & CC for Car-Go & Votto. If he proposes it should I do it or not. Bear in mind it’s a 14 team, 5 keepers.

tamarisk,

I like the sound of it but want to know who your other keepers are in order to get a sense of how this trade will affect your overall keeper list.

Zach

If it went through I would keep
Car-Go
Votto
Price

then 2 of : McGehee, BJ Upton, J-Roll, Rasmus, Bay.

Also Josh Johnson has appeared on the waiver wire is it worth picking him up for next year?

Blake

Blake,

That’s tough. So here’s what it comes down to.

Keeper list with trade: Car-Go, Votto, Price, Upton, J-Roll

Keeper list without trade: Miggy, Rios, CC, Price, Upton/J-Roll

I slightly prefer the first group. Car-Go looks like the best player in the deal and I’d take the 4 hitter, 1 pitcher arrangement over 3 hitters and 2 pitchers.

As for Johnson, yeah absolutely go ahead and pick him up. It’s only costing you a bench player and, assuming you don’t have to declare your keepers until the spring, you’ll have the opportunity to monitor his rehab progress.

Zach

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