Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, September 25-27

Pitch
or Ditch is a strategy for (ideally) daily mixed leagues in which you
pick up
starters on a day-to-day basis based on how well they are pitching and
their
upcoming matchups, then cut them in favor of new guys the next day. The
concept
is that the shallower the league, the more quality starting pitching is
available on the free agent wire, so rather than drafting expensive
starters,
it’s better to build a strong offense and bullpen and let the free agent
wire
populate your starting staff during the season. As a bonus, a handful of
“PoD”
guys emerge each year as worth keeping all year long, like Jair Jurrjens
last
year or Cliff Lee in ’08.

__________________________________________________________________________________

PoD chart September 15.pdf

Top 10 by position for 2011

2010 All-Surprise and All-Disappointment Teams

2010 All-Fantasy Team

Jurrjens.jpg
ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Guthrie @
Romero - Guthrie coming off rough start vs. NYY…I’m sitting this one out

Holland @
Gonzalez

Lester @
Nova – Playing it safe and ditching Nova

Greinke @
Gomez

Pavano @
Bonderman

Fister @
Garza – Fister great at home but awful on the road this year (4.96 ERA)

Danks @
Kazmir – Kazmir pitching OK lately but he’s still DTM in my book

Carpenter @
Coleman

Lowe @
Maya – Lowe 8 IP 0 ER 12 K last start vs. Nats

Wood @
Garland – Johnny Sinkers excellent at home (3.10 ERA)

Gee @
Kendrick

Norris @
Duke – Great matchup for Norris

Volstad @
Narveson – Both high-risk medium-reward

Zito @
Hammel – I don’t trust Zito in Coors

Ely @ D.
Hudson

 

SUNDAY

Chen @
Carmona

Duensing @
Porcello

TBD @
Marcum

French @
Shields – Big Game James so inconsistent but it’s the Mariners!

Pena @
Weaver

Lewis @
Cahill

Matsuzaka @
Hughes – I don’t trust either

Jurrjens @
Livan – Jurrjens too erratic right now

Pelfrey @
Hamels – Tough test for Big Pelf but I think he’s up for it

Happ @
Maholm

Mendez @
Capuano

Westbrook @
Samardzija

Cain @ De La
Rosa

Bailey @
Richard
– Pitch Homer if you’re feeling lucky

Billingsley @
Saunders – Saundo not a bad gamble vs. awful Dodgers’ lineup

 

MONDAY

Galarraga @
Carrasco – Galarraga too inconsistent lately

Burnett @
Rzepczynski – This one could get ugly for Burnett

Matusz @
Davis – Davis lights out in September (3.10 ERA)

Pauley @
Wilson

Buchholz @
Buehrle – Buehrle slumping lately…I’ll pass

Baker @
Davies – Baker a worthy risk vs. weak lineup

Anderson @ Big
Erv

Halladay @
Lannan

Sanabia @
Minor

Bush @
Niese – Good spot for Bush…Niese breaking down

Morton @
Lohse

Lilly @
Jimenez

Zambrano @
Stauffer

 

10 Comments

Hey Zach, thanks for sharing those pieces you wrote. Looking forward to reading them later tonight…Wanted to also get your thoughts on my potential keepers. About to enter the final week of my H2H FINAL matchup, with all the marbles on the line, and I’m locked in a heated battle. Trying to get a good read on who is expendable relative to keepers. We value keepers by round value, and the players below are eligible to be kept. Would anyone break the top four I have listed, in your book?

Player/2011 Rd Value——-

Votto (10)
Kinsler (8)
Sabathia (6)
Lidge (19)———
Gallardo (2)
DeLaRosa (16)
Uggla (13)
Victorino (4)
Bruce (5)
Ortiz (13)
Wagner (12)
Garza (9)
Papelbon (3)

Thanks, as always….

Zach, I am an idiot. Just realized that Kinsler and Sabbathia are not keeper eligible, as their contracts have expired. So, the question becomes, do you see 3 other keepers on this list, besides Votto? Can keep up to 4 players, but don’t have to. Thanks again!

Weekly League Championship…who I start? Help please lineups lock at 7pm Monday.
I have:
Buchholtz (@CWS,NYY), Brett Anderson (@ANA, @SEA), Kershaw (@COL), Wainright (COL), Latos (CHC, @SF)
Volquez (HOU,MIL) , Chacin(LA)

I can use 5 of the SP and Chacin at RP bit wud have to bench H Bell or Feliz…not sure it’s worth it…my opponent has 9starts..
thanks for all help!
Josh

That helps a lot…opponent has no closers and if using all starters! So I’m gonna sit Feliz & plug in Chacin.
I have to say I’m a bit nervous about Latos..not rough matchups but still it’s been rough recently..hope it was mechanical! Guess we’ll find out…
Josh

Thanks Zach. Just re-confirmed and DLR would be 13th, shifting Uggla to 12th. Would that change your thinking?

jaynew,

Uggla for a 13 is a definite as 30 HR second basemen are pretty hard to find. Lidge has been lights out for the past couple of months and is certainly worth a 19th rounder. Then there’s De La Rosa, who will be a 411 favorite entering 2011. I’d keep him for a 16.
********************************************
Josh,

I think you have to start Buchholz, Anderson, Kershaw, Wainwright and Latos and would consider plugging in Chacin for Feliz, who might get rested during this final week. But if that would leave you with just one closer (Bell) with your opponent starting multiple closers, you’re right, it’s probably not worth it!

Zach

Other question…cover up names and look at how they’ll perform THIS WEEK only which combo do I start? Infante 2B/Aviles SS/ Longoria 3B? Or Phillips 2B/ Infante SS/ Longoria 3B?
I know Longoria is looking to come back midweek…I could also put infante at 3B/Phillips & aviles..but that makes me nervous. I already had to decode to bench Hamilton for the chamionship…do I do same for Longo?
Thanks
Josh

Hi quick question….I’m in championship and my opponent has more pitchers starting and I am wondering would adding a 2 start pitcher like Zambrano and dropping Liriano or even Rios ….any thoughts my opposition has great pitching but I have Lester, Felix, Kershaw also

jaynew,

Nope. I’ll stand by my above answer.
*********************************************
alshan,

I like the idea of picking up Zambrano but why do you need to drop Liriano? In this case, you’re probably better off cutting a bench hitter as the goal should be to maximize your starts.
***********************************************
Josh,

I’ll follow the conservative route and go with Phillips/Infante/Longoria. I know Phillips has been very disappointing this year but I just wouldn’t be able to get over benching my top guys only to see them put together monster finishes. I’d sooner gamble on a half week of Longoria than a full week of Aviles.

Zach

thx I picked up Zambrano and dropped Montero since I had posey and V mart at catcher…..

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