2011 List of 12

Happy New Year!

I probably should’ve done this much sooner after the season ended, but no time like the present… without further delay, here is the 2011 List of 12!

2011 List of 12.xls

For those of you who don’t know what it is, or how we pick it, check out the posts from last year or 2009, which explain it pretty well. This year, we have 15 pitchers to choose from, in alphabetical order:


Blackburn, Nick -
He posted two decent seasons in 2008 and 2009 but could not repeat the effort
again last year as his K/9 dropped to a pitiful 3.8. No matter how good his
ground ball rate, or how favorable his home ballpark, a starting pitcher simply
cannot earn fantasy value with so few strikeouts.


Cueto, Johnny -
He faded badly after a great start in 2008, and didn’t appear to step forward
much in 2009. The strikeout rate dipped a little further in 2010, but he cut
the walks and got some better luck on the homer ratio, and voila, his ERA
dropped over three-quarters of a run. I’m not convinced he’ll be a stud, but he’s
growing into a solid mid-rotation starter.


Dickey, R.A. -
One of the biggest surprises of 2010, Dickey finally qualified for his first
ERA title after spending parts of seven other seasons in the Majors.
Breakthrough or fluke? He kept the walks low, got plenty of grounders and wasn’t
hurt by the longball, though his strikeout rate was barely serviceable. The
same formula would make him a solid end-of-rotation risk in 2011, but he’s no
sure thing.


Feldman, Scott -
Not dissimilar to Blackburn, with a few more strikeouts, but a few more walks,
fewer grounders and a much less forgiving home ballpark. Pitch or Ditch
material at best.


Gallardo, Yovani (below) -
Cons: Stalled around 185 innings for the second straight year, and still gives
up a few too many walks. Pros: Dominant strikeout rates coupled with major improvement
in command, and solid home run rates despite ordinary ground ball rates. With
health and better defensive support he could have a breakout season, and oh
yeah, he only turns 25 in February!

Gallardo.jpg
Gorzelanny, Tom
-
Posted an up-and-down season, including a stint in the bullpen, but finished
with his best season since his 2007 campaign in Pittsburgh. The walk rate
spiked 50% from 2009, but I’m expecting improvement there based on what he did
in 2007, 2009, and in the minors, and he’s not terribly homer-prone despite an
ordinary ground ball rate. A sneaky sleeper for 2011.

Hammel, Jason
– Maintained
solid strikeout rates all season, and was dominant in a five-start stretch
throughout late May and into June, but otherwise very ordinary. His K/BB rate is
encouraging, but the ground ball and homer rates hold him back. Still, a solid
mid-rotation starter whose strong strikeouts give him decent upside.

Johnson, Josh
-
Just missed this list last year, but earned a nod as a major breakout candidate,
and he did just that despite missing a few late-season starts. Even if he “slips”
back to his 2009 level, he’s entered the soft ace category and will move into the
elite with another season like 2010. Still, the disconnect between his ground
ball and homer rates, combined with the Marlins’ mediocre team defense, suggest
more of the former than the latter.

Jurrjens, Jair
-
He essentially repeated his 2009 season, minus the BABIP good luck and health. His
true level is probably an ERA in the upper 3′s, making him a useful
end-of-rotation option but not an ace by any measure.

Lannan, John
-
Pros: He’s from Long Beach, NY, not far from the home of our own Mike Siano. Cons: His
strikeout rate makes him the left-handed NL version of Nick Blackburn. Sorry, that’s
not intended as high praise.

Liriano.jpg

Liriano, Francisco
(right) – Despite a 5.80 ERA in 2009, he carried a huge buzz into drafts last season
thanks to a monster winter league campaign, and didn’t disappoint. Most
importantly, he stayed healthy enough to make 31 starts, just missing 200
innings, and returned his walk and ground ball rates near the levels of his
2006 breakout. He turned 27 this winter and pitches in a very favorable home
park, so expect another big step towards stardom this year.


Marcum, Shaun – A
draft-day afterthought after missing all but five minor league starts in 2009
while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Marcum was one of the biggest
surprises of 2010, posting strong numbers while going wire-to-wire in the brutal
AL East. The only major flaw on his resume was a weak ground ball rate and a
correspondingly poor homer rate, but moving to the NL Central should help
address those concerns. At 29 he’s a little old to be considered a breakout candidate,
but if healthy he should easily match or could even improve upon his strong 2009
performance.


Matsuzaka, Daisuke
- Four full seasons and nearly 600 innings of gut-wrenching, nauseating roller
coaster rides prove he’s definitely not one for the squeamish. The strikeout rates make him awfully tempting, and with his
stuff, he could dominate if he ever decides to challenge hitters and throw more
strikes. But it’s best to not watch.


Pelfrey, Mike -
Throw out a brutal seven-start summer stretch in which his strikeouts utterly evaporated, and Big Pelf acquitted himself nicely as a solid mid-rotation
starter in 2010. However, his overall numbers don’t show any real growth over the
last three seasons, so this is probably as good as it gets. Not that an ERA in
the high 3′s is bad, but he’s not someone to target.

Sanchez.jpg


Sanchez, Jonathan
(right) – Siano’s pet pitcher finally makes the list! He threw a no-hitter last
year and has dropped his ERA nearly two full runs over the past two seasons,
despite a dip in his groundball rates and no meaningful improvement in his walk
rates. With an improved offense and a strong defense behind him in a great pitchers’ park,
Sanchez should be at least be a solid #3 this season, but without cutting his
walk rate from the mid-4′s at least to the mid-3′s, he could see his ERA
stagnate in the mid 3′s.

So, to summarize, here’s how
I rank them for 2011:

 

1. Johnson,
Josh

2. Liriano,
Francisco
(by a nose over Gallardo)

3. Gallardo,
Yovani

4. Sanchez,
Jonathan

5. Cueto,
Johnny (edges out Marcum on youth and upside)

6. Marcum,
Shaun

7. Hammel,
Jason

8. Jurrjens,
Jair

9. Gorzelanny,
Tom

10. Pelfrey, Mike

11. Matsuzaka, Daisuke

12. Dickey, R.A.

13. Lannan, John

14. Blackburn, Nick

15.
Feldman, Scott

 

As
mentioned above, we pointed out Johnson last year as a top
“near-miss” from the list, and this year’s list of close calls is
particularly intriguing. While none of these five pitchers have the 500 career
innings we use for the List of 12 cutoff, all are close enough, and trending in
the right direction, to be excellent choices for this season: Dallas Braden (473.1
career IP), Clayton Kershaw (483.0), Hiroki Kuroda (497.0 IP),
Anibal Sanchez
(477.0) and C.J. Wilson (484.2).

 

Enjoy!

Cory

 

32 Comments

I am in a 10 team h2h keeper. I won the league last year and we are allowed to keep 6 keepers this year. I acquired the 4th pick in the 1st round through trades. My keepers are Mauer, A-Gon, Hanley, Ryan Zimmerman, Justin Upton, and Jason Heyward. I have three possible trades out right now. I want your thoughts on which one I should do?
Trade #1: I send Upton and my 1st round pick (#4) for Miguel Cabrera and the guys second rounder (#16)
Trade #2: I send Upton and my 1st round pick (#4) for Cano and his third rounder (#28)
Trade #3: I send Justin Upton for David Price
Looking at my team, I need Cano or Price. I don?t really want to sacrifice my first rounder since it is my only one and would probably draft stanton, but if I could get Cano or Miggy why not right? I mean I do have the 1st pick in the second round. By the way thanks for answering my question on the podcast.

I have a trade question. 16 team keeper league. I have Mark Reynolds at 3B and Derrek Lee at UT. We start 4 SP’s and I have Cain, Kershaw, JJ Johnson, Buchholz, Marcum,Zimmermann. I could deal Cain for Ryan Zimmerman, would you do it?

Scooter, I like the deal for M-Cab. Here’s why…
In a scratch draft right now, M-Cab is likely to go somewhere between the 7th and 10th picks, and you’d be giving up your #4 pick to get him, so let’s say you’re paying a premium of up to 6 picks.
However, Upton would likely go somewhere around #30, and you’re giving up your #16 to get him, or trading up about 14 picks. Even if he goes 25th, you’re trading up by 9 picks. So the premium you are paying to get Cabrera is outweighed by the upgrade you are getting on your 2nd round pick.
But here’s the kicker for you… this is not a scratch draft, it’s a keeper, so the quality of the #4 pick is not nearly what it would be.
In other words, you’re getting the best player in the deal AND upgrading the second pick. You win.
–Cory

Mad Hungarian, I like that deal. Yes it fills you up at CI/UT, but Zimmerman is simply a more valuable player than Cain. Stuff your keeper list with value, rather than worrying about positional balance, and you’ll be better off in the long run.
–Cory

Good to see you guys back online again for 2011. The composite rankings you assemble and an occasional sanity checks have proven invaluable the past few years. Thank you, and look forward to another great one.

Thanks Cory. Unfortunately the guy is backing off of the trade.

I have a question for you on a draft pick. Who would you take in a 10 team h2h keeper if your choice was between McCuthen or Stanton. I like Stanton a lot and think he would be good in my outfield with Heyward and Upton….What do you think?

Hey guys. 14 team dynasty league. Would you please rank the following pitchers:
Gavin Floyd, Ricky Nolasco, Jake Peavy, Colby Lewis, and Brett Myers.
Thanks

Happy New Years Boys and welcome back. Any idea when the podcasts will start back up??

I have a keeper question for a 5×5 league that uses real salaries.
Do you mind ranking these guys for this year (keeping in mind their salaries) Holliday $17mil, J.Upton $4.25, Delmon Young $3-5, B.Butler $3-4, McCutcheon $.600, Rasmus $.600, and Domonic Brown $.400
Thanks!

Just wanna say thanks! The list of 12 is good stuff as always. Looking forward to the season.

33 days ’till pitchers and catchers!

Hey guys. Happy New Year! I’m in the middle of trying to pull off a couple of trades and I just wanted to see if I could get the blessing of the 411. I’m in a 9×9 H2H and we keep 6 round specific keepers and the extra categories are H, BB, SO, SLG and IP, L, ER, QS. My current 6 keepers would be Mauer (1), Utley (2), Wainwright (3), Jeter (5), Greinke (7), and Konerko (15). I have offers to trade Konerko (15) for Nelson Cruz (6) and a separate trade for Greinke (7) and I get Beltre (11). I think I like both of these trades but I wanted an opinion from the pros. Thanks!

Everett

Hey 411

It’s that time of year again when I start thinking about keepers. At the end of the season I scoured the free agent market for even those with slight keeper potential and added them for my non-keeper candidates. Here is my roster at the moment and I need to select 5 keepers (no restrictions, 6×6 extra categories OPS and Holds):

Carlos Santana, logan Morrison, Casey McGehee, Chase Headley, J-Roll, Placido Polanco, Justin Smoak, BJ upton, Alex Rios, Colby Rasmus,Andres Torres, Miggy C, Chone Figgins, Marlon Byrd, Chris Coghlan, Jason Bay – (Pitchers): Aroldis Chapman, Josh Johnson, Stephen Strasburg, CC Sabathia, Cole Hamels, David Price, Mariano Rivera, Daniel Hudson, Joe Nathan, Max Schezer, Brandon Webb.

I think that if I ranked them I would have a very pitcher heavy keeper list so my dilemma is do I cut loose one/two of Josh Johnson, CC, Price; or do I take those 3 with Miggy and another and focus on hitting in the opening rounds of the draft.

Any Advice would be welcome.

Son Of Tamarisk :)

Obviously the Nats are listening. Tom Gorzelanny makes the list of 12, and they promptly trade the farm to get him from the Cubs. BEHOLD the power of the Fantasy 411!

Just want to thank you guys for all the help and tips that led me to win my 12 team NL only auction(260$, 23 players) money league! I showed my wife the check and said, “see fantasy baseball is not a waste of time.” I’m not sure if she is convinced yet, maybe a 2nd championship? I’m looking to repeat, so i’ll be asking about keepers soon (got a few no brainers, like Happ at 1$, Arroyo at 7$, Franklin at 6$, Lilly 12$, Tulo 38$). Pence at 30$? Vic at 28$? Gomes 1$ seems like a keeper in such a deep league, even Saito 1$? Get to keep 12 and 6 minor leaguers (draft coming up). Looking forward to 2011 baseball!

mothermccrees,

I’d go Nolasco (still not giving up on him!), Floyd, Myers, Peavy, Lewis. Not to take anything away from Lewis’ tremendous ’10 season, but I think he will be way overvalued in drafts and his outstanding postseason will only raise his 2011 price tag. I’m not paying top dollar for a guy with such a short track record.
***********************************************
faveri,

Podcasts are already back. Check iTunes or go to this page:

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/audio/podcast/?tcid=mm_mlb_vid

There have been a few since the end of the World Series and another one is coming out today.

As for your question, I’d say McCutchen, Upton, Young, Butler, Holliday, Rasmus, Brown.

Zach

Everett,

I like both of those trades too. Cruz for a 6 and Beltre for an 11 are solid keepers at those prices and you’re getting more upside. I’d even consider swapping Greinke for Beltre straight up so to get Beltre four rounds later is a no-brainer.
*********************************************
tamarisk,

I never like keeping so many starting pitchers so I’d first try to package some of those ace-level SPs in a trade for stud hitters. But if I had to choose 6 from that list, I would pick Cabrera, Rios, Johnson, Sabathia, Price, Rivera.
***********************************************
higgs,

Glad to hear you’re raking in the dough! Pence at 30 and Victorino at 28 both seem a bit high but I’d lean towards keeping Pence and dumping Victorino. Pence is the better overall player and he helps you in more categories. Gomes and Saito for a dollar are solid choices.

Zach

After dominating low level leagues for years starting on Prodigy (you guys know what that was:)) and starting a family in between, I stepped up and inherited a team in an existing Big Boy keeper league 3 years ago. After finishing last and then 8th (12 tm 5×5 h2h), I’m finally looking at a keeper list I can be proud of going into 2011. I actually have some tough choices to make, which is great, please help!

FA keepers start in the last round and go up a round for each one you keep. FA’s: Carlos Santana, G Soto, Arencibia, Delmon Young, Dominic Brown, Moustakas, Hellickson, Minor, Bumgraner.

Keeper rounds: (6) Lester, (8) Weeks, (9) Heyward, (12) D. Price, (15) Latos, (16) McGehee

I keep 6. I love my SP options, but worry about keeping too many. Didn’t mention Broxton in the 7th just bc can get him cheaper if I want him. Think I have to pick one catcher, 1 OR 2 OF’s, and 3 or 4 SP’s. Please advise on who to leave out at C, OF, and SP (or)

Hi Guys,

I’ve got a keeper question.

Our league is 12-team, 6×6 mixed. OBP and SLG replace BA on offense.

Each team can protect 10 players for now, but can only keep up to 5 on draft day. If we keep fewer than 5, we get to draft before the teams that have decided to keep 5 until we have 5 on our rosters (hope that makes sense). Among my 10 protected players are:

E Longoria,
C Crawford,
P Fielder,
N Cruz,
J Rollins,
D Haren,
C Kershaw,
K Morales,
G Sizemore.

There are also a number of intriguing players who are either unprotected, or represent the 6th best (or worse) players* on certain teams, and will therefore (likely) be available in the draft. These include:

D Pedroia
J Upton
J Morneau
A Beltre
A McCutcheon
J Werth*

My question is this: I’m seriously thinking about keeping only 4 (Longoria, Crawford, Fielder, and Cruz) and throwing the others back, with the thought that I would have a pretty good chance to “upgrade” from Rollins to someone like Pedroia or Upton or Werth.

Do you think I should risk tossing J-Roll into the draft, for the chance to get Pedroia or one of the others?

(I’ve been trying to work a 2-for-1 trade to get an upgrade someplace, but Im getting very little traction so far?)

Thanks a lot!

Brad from Cupertino

PS: I finished 4th last year, and will draft 9th in ”

Hi Guys,

I’ve got a keeper question.

Our league is 12-team, 6×6 mixed. OBP and SLG replace BA on offense.

Each team can protect 10 players for now, but can only keep up to 5 on draft day. If we keep fewer than 5, we get to draft before the teams that have decided to keep 5 until we have 5 on our rosters (hope that makes sense). Among my 10 protected players are:

E Longoria,
C Crawford,
P Fielder,
N Cruz,
J Rollins,
D Haren,
C Kershaw,
K Morales,
G Sizemore.

There are also a number of intriguing players who are either unprotected, or represent the 6th best (or worse) players* on certain teams, and will therefore (likely) be available in the draft. These include:

D Pedroia
J Upton
J Morneau
A Beltre
A McCutcheon
J Werth*

My question is this: I’m seriously thinking about keeping only 4 (Longoria, Crawford, Fielder, and Cruz) and throwing the others back, with the thought that I would have a pretty good chance to “upgrade” from Rollins to someone like Pedroia or Upton or Werth.

Do you think I should risk tossing J-Roll into the draft, for the chance to get Pedroia or one of the others?

(I’ve been trying to work a 2-for-1 trade to get an upgrade someplace, but Im getting very little traction so far?)

Thanks a lot!

Brad from Cupertino

PS: I finished 4th last year, and will draft 9th when we start in “round 6.”

Apologies about the double-post?.the server returned an error on my first submit.

Hello 411 gang,
12 team, mixed keeper (cut down to six for the season at dollar values listed – one is a franchise player w $5 inflation). This is our first year as a keeper and I’m unsure about the inflation that will take place with the stud players (I went for it last year, so lineup loaded with names)?

Costs below were from auction last year and remain for this year – thinking mix of value players with a few studs as well.
(I’ve been offered Pujols at $50 for my Crawford $34 – an example of one of the areas where I’m unsure of the correct approach?)

I’m looking at:
Crawford $34
Delmon $1 (franchise?)
Marmol $6
Utley $33
Dunn $13

Butler $11
Longoria $40
Braun $43
Napoli $12
Howard $37
Jeter $20
Mauer $40
Holliday $36

Your six from above? strategy notes on keeper inflation?
thank you.

Hey Guys, Its never to early to start thinking baseball. I am in a 10 team Fantasy league. We draft Pitching staffs, not individual pitchers. I would like to know your rankings for pitching staffs for 2011. Thanks Jason

Can I repeat? I completely emptied my minor league roster of all good prospects to win last year. It is a 12 team NL only keeper money league (about as deep as they get). minor league draft of 6 rounds, all minor league players get a 7$ salary for 3 years once they come up. 23 man roster. Prices are often inflated for top players since most teams have some cheap studs that have the 7$ minor league contract (like Votto at 7$). We get to keep 12 players. Cap is 260$

*Ruiz 5$ 2011
G. Jones 7$ 2011
*Tulo 38$ 2012
Bernadina 7$ 2012
*Coghlan 7$ 2011
*Gomes 1$ 2012
Polanco 17$ 2012
Pence 30$ 2012
Victorino 28$ 2012

*Arroyo 8$ 2012
*Happ 1$ 2011
*Lilly 12$ 2012
*Franklin 6$ 2011
*Lidge 13$ 2012
*Saito 1$ 2012
Stauffer 7$ 2012
Narveson 7$ 2012

*I believe these guys are definite keepers for the price/value.
How would you rate the others?
I’d like to trade some guys to consolidate my keepers.
Hopefully your sage advice will steer me to another championship this year.

Hey guys. I’m in a 12 team dynasty league. Categories are Runs, RBIS, Total Bases, OBP, SB. I have a plethora of young talent. How would you rank the following guys headed into 2011.

Justin Upton
Heyward
Bruce
McCutchen
Delmon Young
Ellsbury
Beckham
Neil Walker
Billy Butler
Gaby Sanchez

I have 3 OF and a util spot to fill with these guys. Going into with year with either beckham or walker at 2b.

Hey guys, long time no talk?.but the season is around the corner so I thought I would send you an email?and see your thoughts on my keeper situation.

Probables

C – Joe Mauer $31

2B – Robinson Cano $26

OF – Sin-Shoo Choo $17

1B – Albert Pujols $50

SP ? Ubaldo Jimenez $16

SP ? Mat Latos $6

SP ? Clay Buchholz $11

SP ? Tim Hudson $9

RP ? Heath Bell $20

On the fence

1B – Billy Butler $20

2B/OF ? Neil Walker $6

2B/3B/SS/OF ? Omar Infante $6

2B/OF ? Ryan Raburn $7

OF ? Rajai Davis $18

Now I had a very good year last year in the 20 team 5×5 vanilla head to head?finished 1st overall in the reg season, then lost to the 8th seed in the playoffs. I normally don?t like protecting 5 pitchers out of 10 players, but I think I have a great staff at great prices. I did have Greinke the last two years, but traded he and Braun to a team for Pujols. Also picked up Choo by dealing David Wright and a draft pick upgrade?.what do you think of those deals?

I really want to keep Butler, think he has more upside, but $20 is a bit overpriced?.and he would be my DH because I acquired Pujols. I love Walker and Infante, cheap and good-great pos flex. What about Raburn? He is tempting also with his season finish. Davis won me steals most weeks, but way too expensive for one cat.

Hoping to get your thoughts on my final 10 keepers.

Thanks man!

Rokhed Brett

Calgary, Alberta

claybo,

I’d go Santana, Young, Weeks, Heyward, Price, Latos. 6th round isn’t bad value for Lester but Latos for a 15 is too good to pass up. The jury is still out as to whether Weeks will duplicate his 2010 production and stay healthy, but I’m a big position scarcity guy so I’ll take the chance.
***********************************************
Brad,

I’m usually not the gambling type but in this case I’d lean towards keeping the 4. If you’re in the #4 slot, you’d be picking 4th in the fifth round so there’s a good chance you can upgrade from Rollins. If not, you can probably get Rollins back so there’s not much to lose.
*********************************************
Jason,

Pitching staff rankings will be included in the 2011 MLB.com Fantasy Preview which will launch within the next week or so. I’ll post the link when it goes up.

Zach

kageh,

Whats the cap? Can’t answer without that info.

higgs,

I’d add Jones and Pence to the 10 you already have starred. $7 for Jones in an NL-only is great value. You’re not getting any discount with Pence but I see a monster year coming.
***********************************************
djroy,

The four guys I’d pick to fill those slots would be Upton, Heyward, Bruce and McCutchen. In a dynasty format, I’d be concerned about Ellsbury’s health woes and I see Bruce as having a little more upside than Young.
***********************************************
Brett,

I’d go with the 9 you have listed plus Walker. When in doubt, I look at position scarcity and finding productive and cheap middle infielders is very difficult. I have a little more faith in Walker than I do in Infante taking into account across the board contributions.

Zach

kageh,
Whats the cap? Can’t answer without that info.

Sorry folks. $260 cap (12 team, 6×6-ops and holds)

Hi 411,

Nice to have baseball just around the corner. I have a keeper league question for you.

5×5 Roto, 10 team league.

We keep 6 players and at least 2 of them have to be pitchers. Who should I keep?

I’m keeping Votto, D Wright, J Upton for sure but I have to pick 3 of Pedroia, Weeks, Rollins, Latos, Haren, Oswalt, Gallardo and 2 of these 7 have to be pitchers.

Right now I’m leaning towards keeping Haren, Gallardo and Pedroia but may throw back Pedroia and keep Haren, Gallardo, Latos?

Thoughts?
Thanks as always,

maysways,

Go with the extra bat and keep Pedroia (elite option at thin position), Haren and Gallardo. Yovani carries tremendous upside and Haren is younger than Oswalt so he gets the edge. I expect him to bounce back from what was at times a shaky 2010.

Zach

Hey can’t wait for the baseball season to start! Keeper question. Can keep any three at last year’s draft position -

Miguel Cabrera (14th Overall)
Joey Votto (30)
Shin-Soo Choo (51)
Clayton Kershaw (86)
Neftali Feliz (115)
Jered Weaver (110)
Clay Bucholtz (Und)
Dan Hudson (Und)
Colby Rasmus (Und)
Stephen Drew (Und)
Chris Perez (Und)

Zach, Cory or Mike,

I know i asked this question already but i really overlooked a key part of what should have been in the question and i left out. with this being a keeper league ( we keep 5) I’m pretty sure all the top tier second baseman are going to be gone when the draft starts in round 6. with that said should i still be looking to go after a elite closer first like Kimbrel or lock up a guy like Kendrick at 2B. If I don’t lock up a 2B early are there any back end guys you would advise me to look at? I hear the name Kipnis quite a bit for a back end 2B, and also maybe J.Weeks for his speed. Also looking at the teams I am thinking these players will be available and I think are worth serious consideration.

Beltre, Lawrie, Hosmer, Youkilis, Jennings, Sandoval and Choo.

I am worried for obvious reasons about Arod’s health but have no other real concerns about my keepers.

We do use a IF position which is why the first 4 names there i think need serious consideration.

once again my keepers are Pujols,Tulo,Arod,McCutchen and Weaver.

Thanks again in advance.

Dmenz

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