411 Retrospective

Hey everyone,

As the 2011 season approaches, we here at the 411 thought it would be a cool idea to take a journey through the past, gathering up the links to some of the more notable blog posts dating back to the blog’s inception. Below you’ll find every List of 12 along with Mike and Cory’s preseason overrated and underrated picks, the All-Surprise, All-Disappointment and All-Fantasy teams and the end of season grades.


Lists of 12

Cory explains the theory behind the List of 12:

For those of you unfamiliar with the List of 12, the concept is pretty simple: we look for starting pitchers who crossed the 500 career innings barrier during the previous season, and focus on them as breakout candidates for the upcoming season. The theory behind this is that it takes pitchers at least a couple of seasons to fully adjust to pitching in the Majors, so in fantasy we want to find guys who are ready to have breakout seasons but might still be a little under the radar. Some of these guys stink and will continue to stink, but if you’re looking for guys who are ready to take the next step, this list is a good place to start.








2010 Overrated

2010 Underrated

2009 Overrated and Underrated

2008 Overrated and Underrated

2007 Overrated and Underrated

All-Surprise and All-Disappointment Teams

2010 All-Surprise and All-Disappointment

2009 All-Surprise

2009 All-Disappointment

2008 All-Surprise

2008 All-Disappointment

2007 All-Surprise and All-Disappointment

2006 All-Surprise

2006 All-Disappointment

All-Fantasy Teams






Final Grades





Hindsight is 20 20. Lance Berkman underrated for 2010.

Josh Hamilton and Josh Johnson overrated for 2010.

Seriously, though, the overall track record is pretty good if you look over it. Have you tried to quantify how well your predictions were each year

higgs, that’s what final grades are at bottom of post…..Siano

everyone look for a podcast today.

Do you guys know when the fantasy preview is coming out? thanks


It should be out within the next week or so. They’re in the final stages of editing.


Any chance Cory’s “combined” projections will come out this season? Also, any thoughts to Morneau’s value? Do you think the head injury will play a role in this season, or is he a good bounce back candidate. He was on a tear before being injured.

Cory said in a previous podcast he’s aiming for Feb 20.

– Jake

Thank you for all the work you guys do at the 411 – love the show and the blog.
Keeper question for you.
12 team, mixed keeper- 6×6 ops holds – $260 cap (cut down to six for the season at dollar values listed – one is a franchise player w $5 inflation). This is our first year as a keeper and I’m unsure about the inflation that will take place with the stud players.

(I’ve been offered Pujols at $50 for my Crawford $34 – an example of one of the areas where I’m unsure of the correct approach?)
I’m looking at:
Crawford $34
Delmon $1 (franchise?)
Marmol $6
Utley $33
Dunn $13
Butler $11
Longoria $40
Braun $43
Napoli $12
Hughes $2
Howard $37
Jeter $20
Mauer $40
Holliday $36
Your six from above? strategy notes on keeper inflation?
Thank You.


Fantasy Preview is out!


Morneau could turn out to be an excellent value pick but the Twins are taking a very cautious approach with his recovery. Drafting him before the seventh round or so in a standard 12 teamer is a bit too risky for my taste.



Keeper inflation is hard to peg but I’ve always noticed it going higher on saves, steals and outfielders. Obviously that is tamed some by a mixed league since there are more options so what it comes down to is how many guys are off the board and how aggressive your league mates are. I do Tout Wars AL-only which has no keepers and then a week later I do my league with old friends that is a 5 man keeper AL-only and the prices are outrageous and make me wish I didn’t show up because you feel like prep is useless. The great thing about a keeper league is it encourages trading so there is always that fix if draft day goes a little nutty. With that said, if a guy is worth it he is worth it. Pujols is probably worth $50 but Crawford is probably worth $40. Whoever you pick you won’t go wrong but if you go Albert then think speed, if you go Carl think power. I may opt for Crawford, I think you are getting more for your money. As for the others the guys that jump out are the bargains! Delmon (enh on the franchise), Marmol and Hughes. If you have guys at great prices I lean towards them over studs at reasonable prices. Why? I can always get back a star for what his market value is since it’s an auction not snake. I cannot under any circumstances get Hughes for $2 or Marmol for $6. Once you identify the steals then if you have room left decide which studs at reasonable prices you want the most and use position scarcity if needed to judge value. CBS has done a good job with mixed auction prices.


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