2011 composite projections 1.0
Hey gang, as promised, here’s a first draft of this year’s composite projections (
), a day earlier than last year’s February 20 release date!
Before you ask any questions about the projections, PLEASE
read the posts accompanying the projections from last year (http://bit.ly/buiDI1), and the year before (http://bit.ly/9BOXOq), and the year before that
(http://bit.ly/akGm0b), which explain how they
are built, what they include and what they don’t.
This year I was able to compile projections from 15 – that’s
right, fifteen! — different sources, and there’s still one more system I’d
like to incorporate into in a future update. However, this spreadsheet only includes
players who were included in at least eight or more of the 15 different
projection systems, and who are currently on an MLB roster (including spring
Please keep in mind that these are not “my projections”: I
have no vested interest in the numbers provided here for any particular player,
so don’t ask me why this or that guy seems too high or too low; if you don’t
like the projection for, say, Pedro Alvarez (below), don’t tell me about it… go buy a
dog! This is simply the “wisdom of the crowds” projection based on multiple
Also, as this is a first draft, these future changes are not
* Don’t ask for other stats categories beyond what’s in
here… this is all I have to share with ya;
* They are NOT adjusted for playing time on a per-player or
per-team basis… this is the “raw” playing time as projected by the various
* The RBI numbers here are based strictly on the Padden
formula I used (see this post — http://bit.ly/5erm1F
– for an explanation), rather than the projection systems, and don’t include
any adjustment based on expected batting order position;
* Runs and RBI’s have not yet been correlated, as explained
in the same post;
* I haven’t put together a games-by-position file but will
do that soon too.
For more info read the previous posts, and I’ll post future
revisions as these and other adjustments are made. Enjoy!