2011 composite projections 1.0

Hey gang, as promised, here’s a first draft of this year’s composite projections (

Composite projections 021911.xls

), a day earlier than last year’s February 20 release date!

 

Before you ask any questions about the projections, PLEASE
read the posts accompanying the projections from last year (http://bit.ly/buiDI1), and the year before (http://bit.ly/9BOXOq), and the year before that
(http://bit.ly/akGm0b), which explain how they
are built, what they include and what they don’t.

This year I was able to compile projections from 15 – that’s
right, fifteen! — different sources, and there’s still one more system I’d
like to incorporate into in a future update. However, this spreadsheet only includes
players who were included in at least eight or more of the 15 different
projection systems, and who are currently on an MLB roster (including spring
NRI’s).

 

Please keep in mind that these are not “my projections”: I
have no vested interest in the numbers provided here for any particular player,
so don’t ask me why this or that guy seems too high or too low; if you don’t
like the projection for, say, Pedro Alvarez (below), don’t tell me about it… go buy a
dog! This is simply the “wisdom of the crowds” projection based on multiple
systems.

 

Alvarez.jpg

Also, as this is a first draft, these future changes are not
yet done:

* Don’t ask for other stats categories beyond what’s in
here… this is all I have to share with ya;

* They are NOT adjusted for playing time on a per-player or
per-team basis… this is the “raw” playing time as projected by the various
systems;

 

* The RBI numbers here are based strictly on the Padden
formula I used (see this post — http://bit.ly/5erm1F
— for an explanation), rather than the projection systems, and don’t include
any adjustment based on expected batting order position;

* Runs and RBI’s have not yet been correlated, as explained
in the same post;

* I haven’t put together a games-by-position file but will
do that soon too.

For more info read the previous posts, and I’ll post future
revisions as these and other adjustments are made. Enjoy!

 

Thanks,

Cory

 

24 Comments

Thanks, Cory!
This is great stuff as always. I’ve used the composite projections for the last few years as the backbone of my rankings and I’m definitely going to do that again this year. This is awesome.
I also want to thank you for the SGP-primers you wrote last year. These primers are great and they helped me a lot implement the SGP-method.
Thanks a lot, Bas

Thanks for the great resource…and for the Last Boy Scout reference. One of my all-time favorite “bad” movies.

Where’d you get that suit grandpa…Gangsters R Us

– Furry Tom

Hey guys got a question for you,

I have the second pick in a six team h2h points league.

Who should i pick if albert gets picked first?

Composite Stats Release Day is one of the greatest days of the fantasy season. And we get documentation to go with it? You can’t beat this! Thanks Cory!

Cory,
Superb, as always. The addition of HBP and SF is awesome for those who want to generate standard scores for OBP. Will your final release include DoB again as well? I find that a handy reference to include in my cheat sheets, which was nice to have already built in last year. Any ETA on the next update? Looks like there was about a 2 week delay between releases last year. Thank you.

– Jake

centralohguy, I’ll include DoB in the next update along with a GxP spreadsheet. Hoping to have that in a week or so; just waiting on one more set of projections from one other provider. After that I’ll start tweaking playing time, batting order spots (R/RBI), roles (CL, etc.)…

Thanks,
Cory

Super Cory, thank you. Would you estimate your manual tweaks involve a couple more weeks’ worth of adjustment after you have all the projections together? I’ve been checking on the provider in question (I think), trying to gauge what time will be left between then and draft times.

xanderayash,

In a roto format, Hanley would be the definite choice but points leagues tend to devalue steals and place more importance on homers and RBIs to go along with AVG. Still, Hanley’s been so consistent throughout his career and plays at the thin SS position. I’d have a tough time going with anyone else.

Zach

Woohoo! Thanks for the big, heapin’ cup-o-happy. I used to attempt to do the same thing, but I never was able to compile more than four or five. Fifteen! Woo baby, don’t say maybe, just gimme some o’ that spreadsheet gravy!

411 studs,

Please comment on each of the five batters listed below…
Since last year, they all have dropped significantly in their draft position due to injury.
They’re listed with their overall rank (so far) on Mock Draft Central (mixed 5×5).
Do these ADP’s seem too high, too low, or about right, depending on the risk and reward?

1B Kendry Morales – 61st overall
OF Jacoby Ellsbury – 66th overall
OF Grady Sizemore – 94th overall
2B Brian Roberts – 127th overall
OF Jason Bay – 138th overall

It would be nice to hear a few different opinions here.

Thanks in advance,
Mike from New Hampshire

Mike from NH, those should all be about right, as ADP from the masses should indicate where they feel upside and downside will be balanced.

centralohguy,
Ah, but don’t the opinions of the 411 crew vary from that of “the masses”? I’m trying to identify these players as undervalued, overvalued, or neither.
-Mike from NH

Any possibility of adding projected holds and blown saves to the pitching spreadsheet?

In the past I’ve tried to do a similar, much less systematic “wisdom of the masses” calculation so I had a sense of who seemed to be overvalued and undervalued relative to my perceptions. That served as a reality check for me, but also let me target players I liked who seemed likely to be under priced at the auction (and vice versa).

What were the 15 projection systems that you used?

Any concerns injury concerns about Tommy Hanson in terms of work load at a young age?
It looks like they built him up fairly slowly in the minors, but young arms with big mileage = risk (see Wainwright and his innings jump!)
BN

Hey All,

I’m in a 12 team, mixed, 5×5 FTF league. I’m still learning and this will be my third season in this league.

I am constantly troubled at what round to draft my first pitcher. Last season I took Greinke in the 3rd round with the 5th pick. Other pitchers to go ahead of him were Lincecum (2nd Round/#1) and King Felix (2nd Round/#11).

Any advice in this area would be much, much appreciated!

Thanks!

Curtis

BTW, should be HTH (Head-to-head) rather than FTF (face-to-face). Had a brain cramp. Sorry!

Curtis

spydoggy, Cory doesn’t reveal which projections he used because some of them are pay services and it wouldn’t be fair to them.

Zach,

I am in a 9×8 Keeper league with the categories as follows:

Runs (R), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Batting Average (AVG), Extra Base Hits (XBH)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

we keep 5 each in this league and mine are

tulo,uggla,dunn,ichiro and cc.

I have the 3rd pick in what is essentially the 6th round i guess you could say. Im pretty sure Youkilis is going first as someone dropped him last year because of the injury and hes a monster. the second guy is taking J. Rollins which leaves me with the best two players on the board being
pitchers. which one of these guys would you take

Josh Johnson or Zack Greinke?

Dmenz

Mike from NH,

These are the results from our expert mock draft still in progress…should give you a pretty good idea:

Morales 67
Ellsbury 40
Sizemore 81
Bay 89
Roberts 140

Most of these are close to the numbers you gave with Ellsbury and Bay being the main exceptions. I actually agree more with the ADPs. I’m not too high on Bay…should have a decent bounce back but I can’t really see him topping 25 HRs playing in Citi Field. I also wouldn’t draft Ellsbury as high as 40. When it comes to injury risks, I’m pretty conservative by nature…4th round just seems too early.

Overall, I’m pretty much on board with those ADPs.
**********************************************
BN,

Not too concerned about Tommy Hanson. He threw close to 200 innings between the Minors and Majors in ’09 so last year wasn’t much of an innings jump. A year ago, maybe I’d be concerned a little, but by now I’m not.
********************************************
Curtis,

The 411 philosophy advises against drafting an SP in the single-digit rounds and generally, I’m in agreement. Maybe I draft one in the 7th or 8th but that’s usually the highest I go. The expert mock that’s posted on the blog was a big exception as I felt Halladay was simply the best option available. Everyone else followed the 411 philosophy to the extreme so I figured I’d take advantage by following a different approach. Sometimes, you just have to be flexible!
**********************************************
Dmenz,

I’d go with JJ. He comes with fewer question marks than Greinke and was ultra-consistent last year.

Zach

Wow. This was a lot of work. Thanks!

Many thanks!

Does the same philosophy/guideline apply for RPs as well?

Curtis,

Nope, Mike and Cory generally recommend to draft a lock down bullpen, sometimes even taking two closers within the first six rounds or so. The theory is that there are a finite supply of closers and very few great ones, so you’d be at a real advantage by owning two top-tier guys. Not only would these players help you in saves but they’d help out greatly in the ratios. Personally, I like to get one solid closer within the first 6-7 rounds and wait a little longer for my second RP…figure somewhere between rounds 10 and 12.

Zach

Thanks again Zach! Extremely useful information.

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