2011 composite projections update

Hi folks,

Here is version 2.0 of this year’s composite projections:

Composite projections 030311.xls

Please read the version 1.0 post, and the older posts linked from that one, for details on what is and is not included in these projections, how they get generated, and so forth. I don’t mind answering questions, but I’d rather not repeat any answers if they’re already included in previous posts. :-)

Here are the changes since the last version:

* Added projections from the 16th and last provider I’ll be integrating this year. The more projections we have, the wider a range of opinions
get incorporated, and the closer we come to consensus.

Montero.jpg

* Filtered to include players appearing in six or more projections, rather than eight last time, to represent more players. Keep in mind though that those with fewer projections are typically minor leaguers, and these represent “what if” projections, since the playing time amounts are often unrealistic. So don’t get too excited just yet about those projections for Jesus Montero (right) or Mike Moustakas, since I doubt they’ll see that much playing time!

 

* Added date of birth on the batting and pitching tabs to help find those all-important Age 27 seasons;

* Added a games by position tab, with MLB and minor league totals from last year, to help determine position eligibility based on different league requirements.

The last steps I need to do in my own prep are to adjust for playing time and roles, that is, starter vs. relief pitcher vs. closer, etc. I encourage everyone to tailor these to fit their own expectations in those regards, but try to not tinker too much with the other numbers except for pro-rating them to match the playing time… otherwise it defeats the purpose of doing these in the first place!

I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. Enjoy!

Thanks,

Cory

 

52 Comments

I participated in a mock draft online just for practice. It was for 12 teams and had the positions for C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, 3 OF, 2 Util, 2 SP, 2 RP, 4 P, 5 BN. I was lucky enough to have the first pick and here is the team I drafted in order of the picks I made, plus the overall draft results (* is me). Let me know what you think and if I had a good strategy.

Glenn–NY

1.1. Albert Pujols (StL – 1B)
2.24. Félix Hernández (Sea – SP)
3.1. Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
4.24. Adrián Béltre (Tex – 3B)
5.1. Brian McCann (Atl – C)
6.24. Heath Bell (SD – RP)
7.1. Chris Young (Ari – OF)
8.24. Chris Carpenter (StL – SP)
9.1. Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
10.24. Chone Figgins (Sea – 2B)
11.1. Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
12.24. José Valverde (Det – RP)
13.1. Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
14.24. Tim Hudson (Atl – SP)
15.1. Carlos Lee (Hou – 1B,OF)
16.24. James Shields (TB – SP)
17.1. Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
18.24. Plácido Polanco (Phi – 2B,3B)
19.1. Johan Santana (NYM – SP)
20.24. Stephen Strasburg (Was – SP)
21.1. Ike Davis (NYM – 1B)
22.24. Scott Podsednik (Tor – OF)
23.1. Josh Willingham (Oak – OF)

Round 1
* (1) Glenn – Albert Pujols (StL – 1B)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Hanley Ramírez (Fla – SS)
(3) Fausto – Miguel Cabrera (Det – 1B)
(4) matt k – Troy Tulowitzki (Col – SS)
(5) Danny – Evan Longoria (TB – 3B)
(6) King George – Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
(7) Rob – Robinson Canó (NYY – 2B)
(8) Team 8 – Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
(9) Jared – Carl Crawford (Bos – OF)
(10) Team 10 – Carlos González (Col – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Adrián González (Bos – 1B)
(12) Nick – Álex Rodríguez (NYY – 3B)
Round 2
(1) Nick – Mark Teixeira (NYY – 1B)
(2) Team 11 – David Wright (NYM – 3B)
(3) Team 10 – Chase Utley (Phi – 2B)
(4) Jared – Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
(5) Team 8 – Roy Halladay (Phi – SP)
(6) Rob – Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B)
(7) King George – Joe Mauer (Min – C)
(8) Danny – Josh Hamilton (Tex – OF)
(9) matt k – Prince Fielder (Mil – 1B)
(10) Fausto – Dustin Pedroia (Bos – 2B)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Matt Holliday (StL – OF) * (12) Glenn – Félix Hernández (Sea – SP)
Round 3
* (1) Glenn – Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Dan Uggla (Atl – 2B)
(3) Fausto – Tim Lincecum (SF – SP)
(4) matt k – José Reyes (NYM – SS)
(5) Danny – Matt Kemp (LAD – OF)
(6) King George – Derek Jeter (NYY – SS)
(7) Rob – Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B)
(8) Team 8 – Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
(9) Jared – Jon Lester (Bos – SP)
(10) Team 10 – Shin-Soo Choo (Cle – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Ian Kinsler (Tex – 2B)
(12) Nick – Cliff Lee (Phi – SP)
Round 4
(1) Nick – José Bautista (Tor – 3B,OF)
(2) Team 11 – Andrew McCutchen (Pit – OF)
(3) Team 10 – Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
(4) Jared – Adam Dunn (CWS – 1B)
(5) Team 8 – Buster Posey (SF – C,1B)
(6) Rob – Josh Johnson (Fla – SP)
(7) King George – Zack Greinke (Mil – SP)
(8) Danny – Víctor Martínez (Det – C,1B)
(9) matt k – Ubaldo Jiménez (Col – SP)
(10) Fausto – Jimmy Rollins (Phi – SS)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Jason Heyward (Atl – OF) * (12) Glenn – Adrián Béltre (Tex – 3B)
Round 5
* (1) Glenn – Brian McCann (Atl – C)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – CC Sabathia (NYY – SP)
(3) Fausto – Brandon Phillips (Cin – 2B)
(4) matt k – Kendry Morales (LAA – 1B)
(5) Danny – Rickie Weeks (Mil – 2B)
(6) King George – Álex Ríos (CWS – OF)
(7) Rob – Ichiro Suzuki (Sea – OF)
(8) Team 8 – Andre Ethier (LAD – OF)
(9) Jared – Jayson Werth (Was – OF)
(10) Team 10 – Billy Butler (KC – 1B)
(11) Team 11 – David Price (TB – SP)
(12) Nick – Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
Round 6
(1) Nick – Justin Verlander (Det – SP)
(2) Team 11 – Hunter Pence (Hou – OF)
(3) Team 10 – Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)
(4) Jared – Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
(5) Team 8 – Alexei Ramírez (CWS – SS)
(6) Rob – Cole Hamels (Phi – SP)
(7) King George – Roy Oswalt (Phi – SP)
(8) Danny – Brian Wilson (SF – RP)
(9) matt k – Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
(10) Fausto – Mariano Rivera (NYY – RP)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Mat Latos (SD – SP) * (12) Glenn – Heath Bell (SD – RP)
Round 7
* (1) Glenn – Chris Young (Ari – OF)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Matt Cain (SF – SP)
(3) Fausto – Tommy Hanson (Atl – SP)
(4) matt k – Michael Young (Tex – 3B)
(5) Danny – Neftali Feliz (Tex – RP)
(6) King George – Francisco Cordero (Cin – RP)
(7) Rob – Carlos Santana (Cle – C)
(8) Team 8 – Aramis Ramírez (ChC – 3B)
(9) Jared – Joakim Soria (KC – RP)
(10) Team 10 – Drew Stubbs (Cin – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Shane Victorino (Phi – OF)
(12) Nick – Francisco Liriano (Min – SP)
Round 8
(1) Nick – Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP)
(2) Team 11 – B.J. Upton (TB – OF)
(3) Team 10 – Jered Weaver (LAA – SP)
(4) Jared – Pedro Alvarez (Pit – 3B)
(5) Team 8 – Mike Stanton (Fla – OF)
(6) Rob – Mark Reynolds (Bal – 3B)
(7) King George – Casey McGehee (Mil – 3B)
(8) Danny – Jonathan Papelbon (Bos – RP)
(9) matt k – Dan Haren (LAA – SP)
(10) Fausto – Martín Prado (Atl – 2B,3B)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Delmon Young (Min – OF)
* (12) Glenn – Chris Carpenter (StL – SP)
Round 9
* (1) Glenn – Stephen Drew (Ari – SS)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Clay Buchholz (Bos – SP)
(3) Fausto – Corey Hart (Mil – OF)
(4) matt k – Francisco Rodríguez (NYM – RP)
(5) Danny – Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
(6) King George – Brett Gardner (NYY – OF)
(7) Rob – Max Scherzer (Det – SP)
(8) Team 8 – Paul Konerko (CWS – 1B)
(9) Jared – Kelly Johnson (Ari – 2B)
(10) Team 10 – Colby Rasmus (StL – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Nick Markakis (Bal – OF)
(12) Nick – Pablo Sandoval (SF – 1B,3B)
Round 10
(1) Nick – Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
(2) Team 11 – Rafael Furcal (LAD – SS)
(3) Team 10 – Ben Zobrist (TB – 1B,2B,OF)
(4) Jared – Curtis Granderson (NYY – OF)
(5) Team 8 – Brian Roberts (Bal – 2B)
(6) Rob – J.J. Putz (Ari – RP)
(7) King George – Denard Span (Min – OF)
(8) Danny – Geovany Soto (ChC – C)
(9) matt k – Andrew Bailey (Oak – RP)
(10) Fausto – Shaun Marcum (Mil – SP)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Ian Desmond (Was – SS)
* (12) Glenn – Chone Figgins (Sea – 2B)
Round 11
* (1) Glenn – Carlos Quentin (CWS – OF)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Brandon Morrow (Tor – SP)
(3) Fausto – Chad Billingsley (LAD – SP)
(4) matt k – Huston Street (Col – RP)
(5) Danny – Vladimir Guerrero (Bal – OF)
(6) King George – Neil Walker (Pit – 2B,3B)
(7) Rob – Grady Sizemore (Cle – OF)
(8) Team 8 – Torii Hunter (LAA – OF)
(9) Jared – Jonathan Broxton (LAD – RP)
(10) Team 10 – Jason Bay (NYM – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Brett Anderson (Oak – SP)
(12) Nick – Michael Bourn (Hou – OF)
Round 12
(1) Nick – Ángel Pagán (NYM – OF)
(2) Team 11 – Rafael Soriano (NYY – RP)
(3) Team 10 – Trevor Cahill (Oak – SP)
(4) Jared – Wandy Rodríguez (Hou – SP)
(5) Team 8 – Ted Lilly (LAD – SP)
(6) Rob – Carlos Peña (ChC – 1B)
(7) King George – Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)
(8) Danny – Jonathan Sánchez (SF – SP)
(9) matt k – Gordon Beckham (CWS – 2B)
(10) Fausto – Howie Kendrick (LAA – 1B,2B)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Carlos Beltrán (NYM – OF)
* (12) Glenn – José Valverde (Det – RP)
Round 13
* (1) Glenn – Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Aubrey Huff (SF – 1B,OF)
(3) Fausto – Bobby Abreu (LAA – OF)
(4) matt k – Adam Lind (Tor – 1B,OF)
(5) Danny – Josh Beckett (Bos – SP)
(6) King George – Jose Tabata (Pit – OF)
(7) Rob – Vernon Wells (LAA – OF)
(8) Team 8 – Brad Lidge (Phi – RP)
(9) Jared – Mike Napoli (Tex – C,1B)
(10) Team 10 – Ian Stewart (Col – 3B)
(11) Team 11 – Miguel Montero (Ari – C)
(12) Nick – Chris Pérez (Cle – RP)
Round 14
(1) Nick – John Axford (Mil – RP)
(2) Team 11 – Ryan Franklin (StL – RP)
(3) Team 10 – Starlin Castro (ChC – SS)
(4) Jared – Drew Storen (Was – RP)
(5) Team 8 – David Aardsma (Sea – RP)
(6) Rob – Ricky Romero (Tor – SP)
(7) King George – Austin Jackson (Det – OF)
(8) Danny – Phil Hughes (NYY – SP)
(9) matt k – John Danks (CWS – SP)
(10) Fausto – Nick Swisher (NYY – OF)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Gio González (Oak – SP)
* (12) Glenn – Tim Hudson (Atl – SP)
Round 15
* (1) Glenn – Carlos Lee (Hou – 1B,OF)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Joe Nathan (Min – RP)
(3) Fausto – Madison Bumgarner (SF – SP)
(4) matt k – Matt Garza (ChC – SP)
(5) Danny – Ryan Dempster (ChC – SP)
(6) King George – Bronson Arroyo (Cin – SP)
(7) Rob – Ricky Nolasco (Fla – SP)
(8) Team 8 – Javier Vázquez (Fla – SP,RP)
(9) Jared – Hiroki Kuroda (LAD – SP)
(10) Team 10 – Jeremy Hellickson (TB – SP,RP)
(11) Team 11 – Brian Matusz (Bal – SP)
(12) Nick – Craig Kimbrel (Atl – RP)
Round 16
(1) Nick – Jaime García (StL – SP)
(2) Team 11 – Colby Lewis (Tex – SP)
(3) Team 10 – Fernando Rodney (LAA – RP)
(4) Jared – Mike Aviles (KC – 2B,SS)
(5) Team 8 – Ervin Santana (LAA – SP)
(6) Rob – Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle – SS)
(7) King George – Michael Cuddyer (Min – 1B,3B,OF)
(8) Danny – Aroldis Chapman (Cin – RP)
(9) matt k – Kurt Suzuki (Oak – C)
(10) Fausto – Jonny Venters (Atl – RP)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Brandon Lyon (Hou – RP)
* (12) Glenn – James Shields (TB – SP)
Round 17
* (1) Glenn – Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Jorge Posada (NYY – C)
(3) Fausto – C.J. Wilson (Tex – SP)
(4) matt k – Adam Jones (Bal – OF)
(5) Danny – David Ortiz (Bos – Util)
(6) King George – Omar Infante (Fla – 2B,3B,SS,OF)
(7) Rob – Brett Myers (Hou – SP)
(8) Team 8 – Joel Hanrahan (Pit – RP)
(9) Jared – Leo Núñez (Fla – RP)
(10) Team 10 – Daniel Bard (Bos – RP)
(11) Team 11 – Gavin Floyd (CWS – SP)
(12) Nick – Ryan Raburn (Det – 2B,OF)
Round 18
(1) Nick – Álex González (Atl – SS)
(2) Team 11 – Jhoulys Chacin (Col – SP,RP)
(3) Team 10 – Edinson Vólquez (Cin – SP)
(4) Jared – Luke Gregerson (SD – RP)
(5) Team 8 – Hong-Chih Kuo (LAD – RP)
(6) Rob – Evan Meek (Pit – RP)
(7) King George – Matt Capps (Min – RP)
(8) Danny – John Lackey (Bos – SP)
(9) matt k – Jordan Zimmermann (Was – SP)
(10) Fausto – Ryan Doumit (Pit – C,OF)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Scott Rolen (Cin – 3B)
* (12) Glenn – Plácido Polanco (Phi – 2B,3B)
Round 19
* (1) Glenn – Johan Santana (NYM – SP)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Aaron Hill (Tor – 2B)
(3) Fausto – Juan Pierre (CWS – OF)
(4) matt k – Travis Snider (Tor – OF)
(5) Danny – Carlos Zambrano (ChC – SP,RP)
(6) King George – Miguel Tejada (SF – 3B,SS)
(7) Rob – Rajai Davis (Tor – OF)
(8) Team 8 – Domonic Brown (Phi – OF)
(9) Jared – Alfonso Soriano (ChC – OF)
(10) Team 10 – Jesus Montero (NYY – C)
(11) Team 11 – Andrés Torres (SF – OF)
(12) Nick – Jake Peavy (CWS – SP)
Round 20
(1) Nick – Danny Valencia (Min – 3B)
(2) Team 11 – Logan Morrison (Fla – OF)
(3) Team 10 – Jason Kubel (Min – OF)
(4) Jared – Desmond Jennings (TB – OF)
(5) Team 8 – Derrek Lee (Bal – 1B)
(6) Rob – Adam LaRoche (Was – 1B)
(7) King George – Carl Pavano (Min – SP)
(8) Danny – Luke Scott (Bal – 1B,OF)
(9) matt k – Coco Crisp (Oak – OF)
(10) Fausto – Sean Rodriguez (TB – 2B,OF)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – Yunel Escobar (Tor – SS)
* (12) Glenn – Stephen Strasburg (Was – SP)
Round 21
* (1) Glenn – Ike Davis (NYM – 1B)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – James Loney (LAD – 1B)
(3) Fausto – Ian Kennedy (Ari – SP)
(4) matt k – Gaby Sánchez (Fla – 1B)
(5) Danny – Juan Uribe (LAD – 2B,3B,SS)
(6) King George – Jon Garland (LAD – SP)
(7) Rob – Dexter Fowler (Col – OF)
(8) Team 8 – David DeJesús (Oak – OF)
(9) Jared – Tyler Clippard (Was – RP)
(10) Team 10 – Raúl Ibañez (Phi – OF)
(11) Team 11 – Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
(12) Nick – Jair Jurrjens (Atl – SP)
Round 22
(1) Nick – Edwin Jackson (CWS – SP)
(2) Team 11 – Scott Baker (Min – SP)
(3) Team 10 – Jason Frasor (Tor – RP)
(4) Jared – Kevin Gregg (Bal – RP)
(5) Team 8 – Chris Sale (CWS – RP)
(6) Rob – Tim Stauffer (SD – SP,RP)
(7) King George – Tsuyoshi Nishioka (Min – 2B,SS)
(8) Danny – Bryce Harper (Was – C,OF)
(9) matt k – Reid Brignac (TB – 2B,SS)
(10) Fausto – Peter Bourjos (LAA – OF)
(11) CHASE what matters Utley – David Murphy (Tex – OF)
* (12) Glenn – Scott Podsednik (Tor – OF)
Round 23
* (1) Glenn – Josh Willingham (Oak – OF)
(2) CHASE what matters Utley – Nyjer Morgan (Was – OF)
(3) Fausto – David Freese (StL – 3B)
(4) matt k – Koji Uehara (Bal – RP)
(5) Danny – Clayton Richard (SD – SP)
(6) King George – Magglio Ordóñez (Det – OF)
(7) Rob – Brett Cecil (Tor – SP)
(8) Team 8 – Alcides Escobar (KC – SS)
(9) Jared – Lance Berkman (StL – 1B)
(10) Team 10 – Mitch Moreland (Tex – 1B)
(11) Team 11 – Matt LaPorta (Cle – 1B,OF)
(12) Nick – Brian Duensing (Min – SP,RP)

Glenn, you kinda lost me when you cut’n’pasted the ENTIRE draft here, and especially after I saw SP at 2.12 and then Beltre and 4.12. You have WAY overdrafted SP, unless this is an H2H league.

Kinda hard to scroll the other 276 picks to get a feel for the rest of the draft, but that’s one thing that jumped out at me.
–Cory

Glenn,

I agree with Cory on drafting Felix too early and the Beltre pick is a definite reach. I love the Valverde pick and you did a solid job with mid to late-round starters (D. Hudson, Shields, De La Rosa). I think power could be an issue as Pujols is really your only 30-plus HR lock. I also don’t like the idea of drafting two pitchers (Johan and Strasburg) who won’t be back until July at the earliest. Even if you have 2 open DL spots, it limits your roster flexibility.

Zach

Guys,

Last week Zach indicated that Cory and Mike are proponents of not drafting a SP until nearly the double digit rounds but the response to Glenn (above) indicates that maybe this philiosophy changes in a H2H league. Could you clarify a bit please?

Also, what are y’all thinking about Ted Lilly. The most recent projections have him approaching 200 IP, a 3.26 ERA, 150+ K, and a WHIP below 1.15. I know these are just projections but these are pretty impressive numbers. Where do you see Lilly as fitting in on a fantasy staff?

Cory –

Love the updates. By any chance do you have Complete Games projected for SP?

– BDH in DC

Thanks guys for the input.
Cory: Yeah, I know it was a lot, but I thought including everything might provide a better context to understand my picks. It is a H2H league, so there are at least 5-6 slots for SPs in the starting roster. Beltre was more of a choice made out of last resort because a lot of the better 3Bs went by really fast. If drafting a SP in the 2nd round is too early, then when would be the right time?

Zach: I honestly didn’t know Santana and Strasburg wouldn’t be ready until July. Good to know. And yeah, I probably should have focused more on HRs especially in the earlier rounds. I tried to just get good players in each position with balanced stats, but it may be better to have specialists like HR-hitters and base stealers, etc. What would be a good number to shoot for that specialize in each stat category?

Glenn–NY

OK so I get to keep 4 and I lose the rd pick their attached to in the draft…PLZ HELP!… ()draft round I lose for player. It’s a 12 team league 6×6 with OPS and K/9.

Hanley (1)
J Upton (2)
Adrian Gonzalez (3)
Jose Reyes (4)
Batista (21)
Carlos Santana (22)

Aubrey-Oakland

Thanks Cory!

Hey Fellas ,
Time has come to organise my keepers for this season and I have two teams to look at:
Team 1. 12 team mixed keeper 5×5 (draft pick used to keep for 2011).Keep 6 total, have to drop previous years picks 1-3.
*thinking to keep*Pedro Alvarez (pk26), Andrew McCutchen (pk7), Mike Stanton (pk25), Delmon Young (pk24), David Price (pk18). Need 1 more, maybe Strasburg (pk12) or Brian McCann (pk4)
Others-Mike Aviles (pk23), Michael Cuddyer (pk 17), Kelly Johnson (pk23), Shane Victorino (pk8), Cliff Pennington(pk23), Randy Wolf (pk20)
—————————————————————————
Team 2, 10 team mixed keeper 7×7 (draft pick used to keep for 2011). 4 keepers only but can only keep 1 of your top 2 picks. My 1=Jose Reyes (burnt me last yr), 2=Pedroia, either one cost #1 round pick. Tempted to let both go for one of the following:
**Jason Heyward (pk5),** Andrew McCutchen (pk 25), **Casey McGhee (pk24),** Mike Stanton(pk26), ??Chris Young (pk20), ??Delmon Young(pk23), Heath Bell (pk7), Justin Verlander (pk10), Neftali Feliz (pk13).
My preferred are with a ** and my 2 reserve options are ??

Thanks for all your help last season, look forward to another BIG one this year!
Cheers, G

Why cant i leave any messages?

Hey guys good job with the projections, must admit though am VERY suprised with the projection you given for Drew Stubbs: only 19HR, 29SB and 252 av . Now he had more homers and steals than that last year, so how do these numbers suggest he’s gonna break out and be the next (mini) Car-Go? Im confused, even if you multiply it up so he plays 162 games, he still only ends up with numbers similar to last year.
Was also wondering the reason for the converative GP for each player, I’ve tried reading through the previous explanations and still can’t really figure that bit out :)
Big Barry
East End, England

G,

It takes a little while for messages to show up, but they eventually do. ;) I think it has something to do with browser cache but I’m not sure.

I’m guessing Tsuyoshi Nishioka didn’t make the 6 projection cutoff, but I think it would be worth making an exception to include him.

He’s the only player that doesn’t make the cut that I think has a really good shot at having mixed-league value.

Big Barry,
Remember that these aren’t the 411’s projections but averaged projections from multiple sources. If you don’t believe me, look at Edwin Encarnacion and notice he isn’t projected to have 35 homers ;)

Zach,

12 team keeper roto league

5 keepers
Tulo,Uggla,Dunn,Ichiro and CC

9×8 with the categories as follows.
Runs (R), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Walks (BB), Strikeouts (K), Batting Average (AVG), Extra Base Hits (XBH)
Pitchers Stat Categories: Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Hits (H), Home Runs (HR), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

would you go offense with your first pick and take one of these guys: Rollins, Weeks, Morales, Pence or Bruce or would you take a pitcher and go with JJohnson,or Ubaldo or Verlander? Also I have a trade proposal from another team offering Votto and Reyes for Dunn and Tulo. Would you do this deal?

Dmenz

Hey guys, love your work! I have 2 questions:
1) Cory, what do you use for replacement level when generating SGP for DH’s.
2) I’m in a keeper league (standard 5X5 roto) and was wondering if you could recommend an OF for me. With 50 keepers off the board, I’m looking at drafting one of the following OF’s at the end of the 1st round (assuming they’re available): Ethier, Pence, Bruce, Markakis, Stubbs, Ellsbury, Stanton, or BJ Upton. Which 2 or 3 do you like the most for 2011?

Thanks,
Charles

411 people,
Doesn’t Pedro Alvarez this year = Chris Davis circa 2009 = not worth the risk? The draft position, low avg but power potential, rookie-ness are all comparable. Aren’t these comparable players? How can we draft this guy knowing what happened with Davis?
I remember calling the 411 satellite radio show in ’09 which led into a discussion with special guest Joe Sheehan, and Sheehan predicted Chris Davis’ demise. Makes me wonder what Sheehan thinks of Alvarez too.
Thanks for your opinions,
-Mike from NH

Zach,Cory or Mike

Please disregard my last question as i have already drafted and now just need to know how you think i did overall.

C- Martin
1B-Dunn
2B-Uggla
3B-Alvarez
SS-Tulo
IF-Kendrick
OF-Pence
OF-Ichiro
OF-Rasmus
UT-Bj Upton

SP-CC
SP-Marcum
SP-J Sanchez
RP-Broxton
RP-thornton
P-Nolasco
P-F.Fransisco

B-Raburn
B-Brignac
B-Ka’Aihue
B-J.Benoit
B-Lackey

Thanks,

Dmenz

Guys

love the work and would appreciate more podcasts pre season – focussing on key comparisons, risks etc

As this year we are drafting before you preview show I have a quick question for you. roto 5*5 with every position except extra CI, MI and 4OF not 3.

I have kept Zimmerman, King Felix, Jose Bautista and brandon Phillips and have the first draft pick. The highest rated players not kept are Nelson Cruz and Shin soo choo. They appear closely matched but I am erring on the side of Choo going for steals and average over power. What do you think? (I thought of going 1b but only Morneau, Dunn and Konerko are left and think they would all be a reach)

thanks

Tim

Curtis,

Yeah, in a H2H points league, pitching tends to be a bit more important than usual as the scoring tends to favor pitching. Although I’d still look for bargain pitchers, you might want to take a pitcher or two within the first 6 or so rounds in that format.

As for Ted Lilly, I’m a big fan of the guy. Those projections are probably overly optimistic but he’s always posted a strong K/BB ratio and has pitched to a sub-1.25 WHIP for four straight years now…a solid #3 SP in standard mixed leagues.
*************************************************
Glenn,

Depends on the league format but in a standard 12 teamer I try to aim for around 250 HRs and 140 SBs. That should put you in good shape.
*********************************************
Aubrey,

My picks would be Hanley, Bautista, Reyes, Santana. Upton for a 2 is a bit pricey for my taste.
*******************************************
G,

1. I’d go with Kelly Johnson…above average power at a thin position. I don’t like Strasburg at that price considering his health status and I think you could get McCann back in the draft if you wanted.

2. Yeah, I’d let both Reyes and Pedroia go. McCutchen is the obvious choice among that group.
*********************************************
Dmenz,

Although I’d usually choose the hitter, in this case I have to go with Johnson. He’s just the most valuable player of that group and you already have a very solid core of hitters.

As for the trade offer, it’s a very tempting one but I think I’d pass. Reyes’ health status going forward is my main concern, and though Votto is a definite upgrade over Dunn, I’d MUCH rather have Tulo than Reyes. Also, you’re actually losing power by going from Dunn to Votto so the only negative is the drop in batting average. I’ll take the hit if it means holding onto Tulo.

Zach

Charles,

I like all of those guys with the exception of Markakis but if I had to pick three it would be Pence (ultra-consistent), Bruce (power upside and a couple seasons under his belt) and Ellsbury (injury risk but proven fantasy stud). Stubbs and Stanton are also great options so tough to pick.
**********************************************
Dmenz,

I like the power and though AVG could be a problem, at least you balanced Dunn, Alvarez and Upton with Tulo and Ichiro. Weakest link is saves as Thornton and Francisco aren’t guaranteed jobs and Broxton could be on thin ice to start the season. But overall, solid team.
*********************************************
Mike,

Interesting point. I’ve set it aside to be discussed on a future podcast and you make a convincing argument! For now, one thing I can say is that Alvarez’s Minor League track record with respect to K/BB rate is a little more impressive than Davis’ which leads me to think that Pedro has a legit chance to improve in that area with more big league experience.
**********************************************
Tim,

Choo and Cruz are very close…on Mock Draft Central, Choo is on average the #7 OF while Cruz is ranked #9. I’d also lean towards Choo. Cruz clearly has more power upside but he’s proven to be a bit injury-prone and is an extremely streaky hitter. I’d rather go with the more consistent Choo and his higher AVG.

Zach

Mike from NH,

In the meantime, here’s Siano’s reply to a recent tweet:

Which guy gives u less agita? Both risky, no telling who has higher reward. RT @luisgeara: Sandoval or Alvarez in a 16 team 12×12 league?

I need an opinion on who to be my 7th keeper my choices are Soto in the 11th, Clay Buchholz in the 13th, or Nathan in the 9th.

Already I am planning on keeping Votto (2nd), Stubbs (21st), Ellsbury (12th), Kershaw (15th), Brett Myers (19th), and Gaby Sanchez (20th).

I am leaning towards Soto or Nathan since I already have Kershaw and Myers being kept.

Zach,

Thanks fof the response though it is a H2H 5×5 league and not a points league. I’ll assume I should treat it the same as any 5×5 roto league.

Curtis

Thanks Zach, you’re always a huge help, I really appreciate it.

Dmenz

Hi Guys, absolutely loved the Over/Underrated show! Of course, now you have me salivating for more! I don’t remember anyone really discussing guys like Logan Morrison, Ryan Raburn, or Gordan Beckham. Morrison may be blocked from playing time this year, Raburn could be a real start, in my opinion, and I still have faith that Beckham will not be the next Alex Gordon-alike. I was planning on targeting all three of these guys in my ten team mixed H2H league in which I kept Hanley, King Felix, Bautista, J. Upton, and M. Holliday. Do these guys constitute pickups within the first five rounds after my keepers?

Hey guys! Man it’s great to be back when I start to see baseball highlights all over tv again. I’m pumped this year, and I just found out I have the 5th pick in my 12 team H2H non keeper. I was wondering if you think CarGon is too early to swipe at the 5th pick. I know he wont be there on the return trip to me and I’d really like to have him. My other option is to take Tulo to sure-up a thin position. I’m in a tough spot here, I feel like after Pujols, Hanley, Miggy that everyone is a reach for me and doesnt deserve the 5th pick.

Thanks guys, it’s nice to have you back in full swing!

Just to clarify Zach,

You said I should keep Hanley, Reyes, Bautista, Santana, but in my previous message I put that i had Adrian Gonzalez (3rd rd) to keep as well. So since Upton is out which four should I keep? I’m guessing it’s between Reyes (4th) and Santana (21st). Given I’ve got Hanley at SS already and catcher is weak I’m thinking Santana.

Zach,

Do you think Martin is going to have a comeback type of a year now that hes with the Yankees and appears to be somewhat healthy? Do you think any of these guys are better options are catcher? Jaso, Buck, Y.Molina, Ruiz, Pierzynski?

Those guys are all on the waiver wire and even though I know the season hasn’t even started yet I’m always keeping tabs on the wire.

Dmenz

Zach,

Do you think Martin is going to have a comeback type of a year now that hes with the Yankees and appears to be somewhat healthy? Do you think any of these guys are better options at catcher? Jaso, Buck, Y.Molina, Ruiz, Pierzynski?

Those guys are all on the waiver wire and even though I know the season hasn’t even started yet I’m always keeping tabs on the wire.

Dmenz

sorry for the dual post

Hello Zach,
I post a question on MArch 1st. I was seeking for the best keepers in my roster. (3 Keepers, Min 1 pitcher 1 batter)
We use mock draft central to get the ADP for the players, in order to place them on a round pos, and soem other rules apply too.
The keepers you suggested were: Cruz, McCutchen, Price.
It happens that after aplying the rules of our league and ADP of MDC, this 3 player are 5 rounders, so because of that, i will get them in round 3, 4 and 5, instead of 5, 4, 10 (respectively) as it were in last post.
Would you still select this 3 players?
My other options are: Ubaldo Rd 4, Marcum Rd 12, Rivera Rd 6, D Hudson Rd 13, K Johnson Rd 12, V-Mart Rd 3.
Now i’m not so sure about Cruz on Rd 3, and Price at Rd 5 as this are their actual values. I’m not getting a bargain on neither of them.
Thanks a lot for your advice!!!

411 Masterminds,
Cheers for the feed back earlier. I have a thought for u to talk me out of please.. I am keeping Kelly Johnson, McCutchen, Stanton, Alvarez and Price, all at low pick value. I know catcher is a shallow position so thinking to use my last keeper pick on McCann for pick 4. Looking at ur mock draft Mauer ( who I want, went in our 1st round last yr) went at pick 23. My league is only a 12 team league and Siano picked McCann in the second round. I have pick 11 in 1st round and pick 2 in 2nd round so hope to grab Joe there. I was going to hold McCann incase I missed Joe and if I did catch Joe, Use McCann as a bargaining chip to fill any holes I may have from the draft. head to head point league, 26 man rosters…
Cheers,
G

I love this post, but curious if I’ve missed something or not….isn’t Billy Wagner retired?

I apologize if this has been posted elsewhere, but I couldn’t find a list of the projections that went into your composite. Is that something you would be able to share?

Hey can’t wait for the baseball season to start! Keeper question. Can keep any three at last year’s draft position –

Miguel Cabrera (14th Overall)
Joey Votto (30)
Shin-Soo Choo (51)
Clayton Kershaw (86)
Neftali Feliz (115)
Jered Weaver (110)
Clay Bucholtz (Und)
Dan Hudson (Und)
Colby Rasmus (Und)
Stephen Drew (Und)
Chris Perez (Und)

Thanks so much for the help!

Hey guys!

Thanks for the feedback above. I believe N Feliz will end up in the rotation to start the year. Around what round (standard 12 team 5X5 roto) wound you put him in if this were the case? Or, rather than a round per se, what tier of starters would you group him with?

Thanks

Ron,

I’d go with Soto. Nathan for a 9 is solid value but considering his health situation, there’s a good chance you can get him back for around that price on draft day. Personally, I’m very high on Nathan but most owners will be reluctant to use a pre-round 9 pick to take him.
************************************************
Malik,

The way I look at it is to ask myself “Are these guys top-100 players?” (50 keepers + 50 players taken in first five rounds.) Beckham is close and when we add in the keeper factor and the 2B factor, I’d say yes, he’s worth targeting that early. As for the other two, forget it. I like Morrison (own him in my NL-only league) but he’s nowhere near a top-100 keeper. He’ll hit for a solid AVG but his power is still a work in progress. I’d be shocked if he surpasses 15 home runs this year. And it’s not like he plays in a favorable park. Raburn would also be a no. A red hot finish to last season padded his stats and he strikes out too much to post a high AVG. I see his upside as .275-25-85…and that’s being generous. Is an outfielder who puts up these numbers a top-100 pick? Nope.
************************************************
Ed,

I’m a big position scarcity guy so I’d definitely pick Tulo there. He’s well worth a pick at #5.
**********************************************
Aubrey,

My bad. Yup, Santana’s the clear choice there.
*********************************************
Dmenz,

I’m cautiously optimistic about Martin. Hopefully, the change of scenery does help. We’ve seen what he’s capable of so based on his upside alone I’d much rather have him than any of those waiver wire guys.
*********************************************
mfridzon,

Change it to McCutchen, Marcum, D. Hudson.

Zach

G,

Keeping McCann for a 4th rounder is fine but I’m not so sure I’d be targeting Mauer as well, particularly if there are more attractive options available at other positions. You’re already addressing position scarcity by keeping McCann, so I think going after Mauer might be going a little overboard. Who’s to say that you’ll be able to get fair value in a McCann trade. Maybe the other owners in your league value position scarcity less than you do. Keep McCann and keep your options open on draft day.
*************************************************
Ross,

Yes, Wagner is retired but was for some reason on this list anyway!
***********************************************
Hank,

Out of courtesy to the various sources, I don’t think Cory has ever shared that information.
*****************************************
dallin,

A lot of great choices here but I’d lean towards M-Cab, Votto and D. Hudson with Rasmus a close fourth and Choo also very tempting.
***********************************************
csmorash,

I actually think Feliz will stay in the closer role but if he does become a starter I’d slot him into the Wandy Rodriguez/Ryan Dempster/John Danks level…in other words, solid #3 SP in mixed leagues. Personally, however, I’d stay away unless it’s a keeper league. It’ll likely take him some time to adjust and his draft day price will simply be too high thanks to all the hoopla surrounding this story. Burning an early-round pick on him could prove to be a mistake. There’s just too much risk involved.

Zach

Zach,

I have been reading some stuff online about Rasmus and his poor relationship with LaRusa. What is your take on the situation and do you think he will meet, exceed or fall short of MLB’s Projections of

AVG.- .276 R- 88 HR- 26 RBI- 84 SB- 17

Whats up guys,
Just last night I had my NFBC satellite draft (15 teams). I won’t crowd your post with the results, but I’ll leave the link to the draft board below. I’m looking for some feedback as to how I did. I feel like I got some really good value in the draft. I’m never one to pay for pitching or saves as I chase them every year so you’ll see that I didn’t put much of an investment into them, unless of course they came at good value.

I had the 7th pick in the draft and my strategy was to take players with power, speed and up side on the front end and then just go value after that.

My draft was done after the Zack Greinke and Chase Utley news broke so as you can imagine they fell in the draft. Oddly enough they both ended up on my team. Check out where I drafted them and let me know if I did Team Fantasy 411 good. My team name is O’s before Bro’s.

Also, Stephen Strasburg did not get drafted. Should he have?

http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/draft/snake_board.asp

P.S.
Brian Matusz this year is last years David Price. Look at their stats from there rookie season and see how similar they are. It’s automatic. Get him this year!

Thanks,
Charles (George Mason University)

Hey Zach, have Freddy Freeman in my minor league system and see he is raking this spring. How do I approach drafting at 1B/CI this year. Do you think he’ll put up good enough power numbers to warrant a CI spot, if so presumably I can disregard filling that spot in the draft and just draft a fill-in right at the end. Or would it be safer to draft a decent CI, and if Freddy starts to rake at the big league level then to make a trade. Thanks.

Hi guys,

I’m in a 10 team keeper league with the deadline this Monday to submit my keepers. I’m down to Utley or Cliff Lee for my final spot. Who would you take with the recent news on Chase? It just seems with each new report, the prognosis sounds grimmer and surgery becomes more likely meaning 2 months on the DL.

Thanks Zach, Siano and Cory for your opinions on Alvarez vs Chris Davis. My eyes were opened a little as to the difference between the two players, and now I don’t see Alvarez as a supremely overrated fantasy player anymore, but relatively fair value at that draft position. If I’m in desperate need of a 3B by then in my draft, and I really hope I’m not, then I won’t be devastated banking in Alvarez.
-Mike in NH

dmenz,

I wouldn’t be too concerned about Rasmus’ rocky relationship with LaRussa. If he produces, he’ll play. I think those projections are dead on. He’s a solid third outfielder in standard 12 teamers with some upside.
**************************************************
amigos,

At this time, I’d feel a little more comfortable with Freeman at utility than at CI. Some very solid first basemen (Adam LaRoche types) can be had in the latter rounds so I’d actually draft one of those guys to hold the fort down for Freeman and then if Freeman blossoms you’ll just have added depth from which to make a trade.
*********************************************
sobesurfer,

Yeah, I have to agree with you on that one. I’m scared to death of Utley right now and Lee is a legit ace.

Zach

Your composite stats spreadsheet link is broken. Additionally the html is showing at the top of the page. It doesn’t look right.

Hey guys, thanks for the projections but I have one quick question… I can’t seem to access them or get to version 1 or any other projection, any possible assistance on this issue? Thanks!

Hi Guys,
Just tried to download your compo s/sheet and it cannoy find the document?!? I know I accessed this since it has been posted but any ideas why i can do so now. It invaluable to my preps for the league over here in the uk.
Any guidance would be great.

Many thanks

Steve

Steve,

See the note on top of the latest blog post. We’ve been having a ton of technical problems while upgrading our blog software. Terrible timing I know. Hopefully you saved it when you were able to access it. These issues should be sorted out soon but maybe not in time for your draft.

Zach

When is Fantasy 411 coming back to MLB Network

Rob,

Regular season shows are slated to begin April 9th.

Zach

I’d like Cory and Mike to comment on Erick Aybar versus Elvis Andrus. I can’t for the life of me figure out why Andrus is so much more valuable than Aybar. Aybar is projected to lead off for the Angels and now has Pujols and Morales to drive him in.

The composites have Andrus who stole 30 bags last year and has been increasing his totals progressively, regressing to 17 stolen bases, yet aging guys like Victorino, are expected to increase by 12?

It seems like with Aybar you’ll have a solid late round option who will score plenty of runs with the guys behind him driving him in, potentially steal 35 bags, with a .275 average and potential 10 to 12 homers. Maybe I’m crazy, I’d love the guy on the show to tell me I’m not.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 258 other followers

%d bloggers like this: