April 2011

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, April 30-May 2

Chris Narveson

SATURDAY  (SIANO’S PICKS)

Pineiro @ Shields

Lewis @ Anderson

Drabek @ Burnett

Porcello @ White

Tillman @ Humber

Duensing @ O’Sullivan

Fister @ Lackey

Niese @ Halladay

Westbrook @ Beachy

J. Sanchez @ Lannan

Wolf @ Wandy

Johnson @ Volquez

Garza @ Kennedy

Maholm @ Hammel

Stauffer @ Kuroda

SUNDAY  (ZACH’S PICKS)

Coke @ Masterson - Masterson 5-for-5 in quality starts this year.

Litsch @ Nova – Nova coming off nice outing but I don’t trust him yet.

King Felix @ Buchholz – Look for Clay to right the ship here.

Weaver @ TBD

Britton @ Floyd

Pavano @ Hochevar – I’ll give Pavano a try here. Hochevar sports impressive 23-to-8 K/BB ratio but overall results still inconsistent.

Harrison @ Gonzalez – Great opportunity for Harrison to rebound coming off dreadful outing.

Cain @ Zimmermann – Taking a break from Zimmermann.

J. Garcia @ Lowe – Lowe a question mark here after DUI arrest.

Narveson @ Norris – Could Narveson, to borrow a phrase from Siano, be turning back into a pumpkin? Norris pitching pretty well of late.

Morton @ Jimenez

Coleman @ D.Hudson – Not the least bit worried about Hudson.

Nolasco @ Arroyo

Moseley @Garland

Young @ Lee – Young more of an NL-Only option for this one.

MONDAY (ZACH’S PICKS)

Holland @ McCarthy – McCarthy a little risky but I’ll take the chance he rebounds.

Colon @ Verlander

Chatwood @ Beckett

Guthrie @ Buehrle – Tough matchup for Guthrie but he’s been very good thus far.

Bumgarner @ Gorzelanny

Happ @ Leake - Leake solid in four of five starts this season. Astros lineup nothing special.

Estrada @ Jurrjens

Volstad @ Lohse

McDonald @ Harang

Russell @ Kershaw

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, April 29

Big Erv!

ZACH’S PICKS

Scherzer @ Gomez

Romero @ F. Garcia – Tough test for Freddy but he’s been outstanding.

Big Erv @ Price -Big Erv scuffling of late and TB bats red hot…I’m sitting this one out.

Vargas @ Dice-K – Watch Dice-K give up 8 ER here!

Arrieta @ Danks - Pitch Arrieta only if you’re brave.

Baker @ Chen – Baker benefits (you would think) from rotation shuffling…now gets KC instead of TB.

Wilson@ Cahill

Pelfrey @ Blanton

Lincecum @ Marquis

Vazquez @ Wood – Vazquez DTM and I don’t trust Wood.

Carpenter @ T. Hudson

Marcum @ Myers

Correia @ Chacin – Time to jump ship on Correia before the ship completely sinks!

Zambrano @ Galarraga – Dangerous matchup for Big Z so beware.

Richard @ Lilly – Padres’ lineup could be perfect cure for inconsistent Lilly.

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, April 28

Ryan Dempster has yet to record a quality start in five tries this year.

CORY’S PICKS

Pineda @ Penny - have to use Penny after his dominant outing last time

Hellickson @ Blackburn (Gm 1 of doubleheader)

Niemann @ Swarzak (Gm 2 of doubleheader)

Morrow @ Ogando

Lester @ Bergesen

Jackson @ Sabathia

Davies @ Carmona – tough call on Carmona, the Dice-K of Cleveland

Vogelsong @ Karstens

Capuano @ Livan – Capuano is enticing but let’s see one more

McClellan @ Figueroa

Dempster @ Enright – not quitting on Dempster

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, April 27

Despite a terrible 7.08 ERA, Jeff Niemann might be worth consideration.

SIANO’S PICKS

Beckett @ Guthrie

Buehrle @ Colon

Francis @ Tomlin *Francis coming off a beating by Texas and could get another one here.

Ross @ Haren

Bedard @ Verlander

Reyes @ Holland

Niemann @ Blackburn *Niemann’s only good start this year was vs Twins so he is a blue plate special if you’re looking for one.

Billingsley @ An. Sanchez *You flirt with a no-no you go again. Anibal is on a roll.

LeCure @ Gallardo *Gallardo scuffling a little bit and Reds can hurt you but you drafted him fairly high so hang in there.

Chacin @ Coleman

Hanson @ Latos *Super Terrific.

Hamels @ Saunders

Dickey @ Gorzelanny *I’m holding off on R.A for now. A good start here he probably gets back on radar.

Bumgarner @ McDonald

Lohse @ Happ

***Cory says “Agreed on all, though Guthrie is a little bit aggressive.”

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, April 26

CORY’S PICKS

Buchholz @ Britton – Yes, ditch Buchholz
Floyd @ Nova – Floyd risky vs. Yankees but solid enough to get a shot
Hochevar @ Masterson
King Felix @ Coke – Have a Coke and a smile; he will bounce back vs. M’s
Litsch @ Harrison
Davis @ Liriano
McCarthy @ Chatwood – not buying on Chatwood yet
Young @ Zimmermann
Cain @ Morton
Kershaw @ Volstad
De La Rosa @ Russell
J. Garcia @ Norris
Leake @ Estrada – Not convinced yet on Leake vs. slugging Brewers
Oswalt @ D. Hudson – Hudson’s K rates and other stats say don’t give up
Jurrjens @ Harang – Harang Hot at Home

***SIANO SAYS “I would think most who already own Buchholz and Britton plan to pitch. Risky but not unreasonable. I said ditch on Norris due to his inconsistency and the fact that Cards are best hitting and scoring team in MLB. Leake and Nova are non-mixed plays but highly volatile in mixed right now.”

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, April 23-25

SATURDAY (SIANO’S PICKS)

Price @ Morrow *I’d leave Morrow on DL and see what happens

Carrasco @ Liriano

Jackson @ Penny

F. Garcia @ Tillman

Davies @ Ogando

Matsuzaka @ Big Erv *Dice-K on the road to redemption or done by the 4th?

Cahill @ Vargas *Vargas’ ERA is deceiving off one terrible start and he can get some Ks, blue plate special.

Lilly @ Dempster

Enright @ Gee

T. Hudson @ Lincecum

Wood @ Carpenter

Marquis @ Correia *Very hard to say ditch until he gives more reasons why. Has a sub 1.00 WHIP.

Rogers @ Vazquez

Myers @ Marcum

Blanton @ Stauffer *If you are ever going to pitch Blanton it’s here. I have no idea which Stauffer is showing up.

SUNDAY (ZACH’S PICKS)

Danks @ Scherzer

Shields @ Romero – Good test for Shields. Can he keep this up?

Nova @ Arrieta – Arrieta worth watching but no way do I pitch him here.

Gomez @ Pavano - Pavano tough to figure out this year. Two 7 ER starts but a combined 1 ER over other two starts.

Chen @ Wilson – Time for Chen’s ERA to normalize.

Lackey @ Palmer – Lackey hoping for triumphant return to SoCal.

Anderson @ Fister

Galarraga @ Niese

Jimenez @ Johnson – Outstanding pitching duel here!

Lannan @ Maholm – Might want to consider rolling the dice on Lannan if you’re feeling lucky…I’m not.

Wandy @ Wolf - Zero ER allowed by Wolf over his last two starts.

Kuroda @ Zambrano – Have to go with Big Z coming off gem.

Beachy @ J. Sanchez

Halladay @ TBD

LeCure @ TBD

MONDAY (ZACH’S PICKS)

Humber @ Burnett – I still refuse to own Burnett but he’s been decent.

Drabek @ Lewis - I’ll say yes on both though I wouldn’t blame you for sitting both.

Gonzalez @ Weaver

Garland @ Nolasco

De La Rosa @ Garza – Nice to see Garza finally doing more than just striking guys out.

Arroyo @ Estrada

Lee @ Kennedy - Dangerous matchup for Kennedy but he’s been solid in three of four starts.

Lowe @ Moseley – Appealing matchup for both.

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, April 22

CORY’S PICKS

Buehrle @ Verlander

Sabathia @ Bergesen

Hellickson @ Reyes

Francis @ Holland – Francis off to a good start, but not gambling in TEX

Carmona @ Duensing – Carmona worth a gamble at MIN if you feel bold

Lester @ Haren

Ross @ Pineda – Ross one to watch

Billingsley @ Coleman

Livan @ Karstens – Livan off to a good start but do you trust him?

Saunders @ Pelfrey

Chacin @ An. Sanchez

Figueroa @ Gallardo

Volquez @ McClellan – Can you ditch Volquez in the 1st and pitch after that?

Hamels @ Richard – Richard solid at home, but the Phils are tough

Hanson @ Bumgarner

SIANO’S PICKS

 Buehrle @ Verlander

Sabathia @ Bergesen *Will CC ever win again?

Hellickson @ Reyes *Hellickson has not been very good this year. This could be bad. I’m not risking it.

Francis @ Holland *Francis not worth the potential blowup start

Carmona @ Duensing *Take out Fausto’s terrible first start and you have 3 ER in 21.2 IP

Lester @ Haren *Tremendous

Ross @ Pineda

Billingsley @ Coleman

Livan @ Karstens

Saunders @ Pelfrey

Chacin @ An. Sanchez

Figueroa @ Gallardo *YoGo looking to bounce back

Volquez @ McClellan

Hamels @ Richard

Hanson @ Bumgarner


Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, April 21

Was Scott Baker's last start a fluke or a sign of good things to come?

CORY’S PICKS

Floyd @ Niemann – Niemann too fly-ball prone vs. HR-happy ChiSox

Baker @ Guthrie – gambling on Guthrie at home vs. weak-hitting Twins

Tomlin @ O’Sullivan – big gamble that Tomlin stays hot

Beckett @ Chatwood – do you trust Beckett?

McCarthy @ King Felix

D. Hudson @ Leake

Gorzelanny @ Lohse

Jurrjens @ Kershaw

Happ @ Capuano – Capuano intriguing vs. the Astros’ weak offense

McDonald @ Volstad – still like McDonald, but not right now

Oswalt @ Latos

______________________________________________________

ZACH’S PICKS

Floyd @ Niemann – Niemann too erratic to trust right now.

Baker @ Guthrie - Both of these guys toss-ups but I’m encouraged by Baker’s last start and Guthrie still has my support…for now.

Tomlin @ O’Sullivan – Need to see more from O’Sullivan

Beckett @ Chatwood

McCarthy @ King Felix – M’s lineup put up 13 runs last night! They’re still awful.

D.Hudson@ Leake – Hudson better be careful. Leake will look to “steal” a win from him.

Gorzelanny @ Lohse – Ride Lohse while he’s hot.

Jurrjens @ Kershaw

Happ @ Capuano – Happ still has more walks than strikeouts.

McDonald @ Volstad – McDonald very disappointing so far.

Oswalt @ Latos

Fantasy 411 Glossary

Hey guys,

With the season now in full swing, we thought it would be a cool idea to put together a Fantasy 411 glossary consisting of basic fantasy terms (for the newbies) and phrases specific to the 411 show. Most of these sayings go back to the old radio days so we hope that this glossary will be both useful for the beginners and entertaining for the longtime listeners.

I’ll also be putting up a link to this post on the right side panel under “Fantasy Resources.”

-Zach

Roto league – Rotisserie league – refers to league where the standings are determined by where teams place in all the various categories in relation to the other teams in the league.

H2H – Head-to-head league

Vanilla league – Usually refers to a 12 team roto league with standard scoring categories. Batting average, home runs, RBIs, runs, stolen bases for hitters and wins, saves, strikeouts, ERA and WHIP (Walks + Hits per innings pitched) for pitchers.

5×5 – See above. Five hitting and five pitching categories.

Redraft league – Refers to a non-keeper league.

Snake Draft – The most common form of drafting in which teams select players in a certain order and the team with the last pick in the first round receives the first pick in the second round and so forth. The selection process continues to “snake” from one side to the other until the draft is completed.

Auction Draft – An alternate form of drafting where owners are given a fixed budget (usually $260) to bid on players with the player going to the highest bidder. The advantage of the auction draft is that an owner could draft any player they want so long as they have the money to get him.

FAAB (Free Agent Auction Bidding) – An alternate method to waiver priority usually implemented in auction draft leagues. Each team receives a certain number of FAAB dollars to start the season to use towards bidding on waived players and, in some leagues, all free agents. The team with the winning bid receives the player and the bid amount is deducted from their budget.

Vickery Bidding – A type of FAAB bidding where the highest bidder does not have to pay his full bid. Rather, he would pay $1 more than the second-highest bid. So if the winning bid is $20 and the second highest bid is $15, the owner with the $20 bid would only be charged $16.

Keeper leagues – Leagues where owners are allowed to keep a predetermined number of players for the following season. In auction keeper leagues, players are kept for their originally drafted price but in some cases salary escalators are involved, so, for instance, a player who is drafted for $5 in 2010 can be kept for $5 in 2011 but his price would rise by $5 for each following season…$10 for 2012, $15 for 2013, etc.

Dynasty leagues – Refers to long-term keeper leagues that will NEVER redraft.

Pitch or Ditch – Strategy of routinely picking up starting pitchers off the waiver wire to start in favorable matchups and either dropping them after the one start or holding onto them for awhile longer.

Club DTM – DTM stands for “dead to me”, so Club DTM refers to a group of starting pitchers who, at least for the short-term, Mike and Cory will not recommend for pitch or ditch. It’ll take a few consecutive solid starts for these guys to redeem themselves and earn back pitch or ditch consideration.

YPNM – “Your problem not mine”

Monday Thursday guys – Since many clubs are off on Mondays and/or Thursdays and in many fantasy leagues there is no limit for games played by hitters, fantasy teams can benefit from, throughout the season, picking up hitters who do have games on those days to fill in at some of the roster slots, therefore maximizing the team’s production in the counting stats.

Waiver Priority – When a player is dropped, he goes on waivers for a certain number of days. During this time, teams can submit a waiver claim for the player. When the waiver period ends, the player would go to the team with the highest waiver priority of the teams that submitted a claim. This team would then move to the back of the waiver priority line and the waiver order would adjust accordingly. The waiver order to start the season is usually the inverse draft order.

“Flags Fly Forever” – Term used by Cory and Mike to promote the idea that keeper league owners should always play to win now and worry about next year later unless they are completely out of contention.

“The road to fifth place is lined with closers of the future” – A favorite line of Cory’s used to remind owners that stacking up on too many guys who could potentially give them saves will not get them anywhere. Rather, they should focus only on the players who ARE getting the saves.

“Strength loves certainty, weakness loves risk” – Popular 411 saying usually used when answering trade questions. Owners in first place should be less inclined to make trades and stick with what is working while owners who are struggling need to be more aggressive with trades and pickups. Cory adopted the phrase from John Benson, one of the best-known early roto analysts.

“You’ll cut him and then I’ll pick him up” – Phrase used often by Mike to advise people not to trade for waiver-wire level players. Chances are the owner proposing the trade will end up cutting the player once he realizes that there are no takers, so why give up anything if you don’t have to?

“Hitters hit” – A popular 411 saying underlining the 411 philosophy of valuing hitting over pitching as, from year to year, the statistical production of hitters tends to be more consistent and predictable than that of pitchers.

The Wheel – Refers to either the first or last draft position where a team would get to make back-to-back picks throughout the draft.

“Chasing Saves” – The practice of picking up any available mid to low-level relief pitcher who is getting saves regardless of the damage they might do to your ERA and WHIP.

“Mashers” – Big time power hitters.

“Burners” – High stolen base contributors.

“Five category players” – Players who contribute in all five hitting categories, particularly possessing the ability to both hit for power and steal bases.

OPS – The sum of on-base percentage and slugging percentage. For leagues that use extra categories beyond the standard 5×5, OPS is a popular choice.

BABIP – “Batting average on balls in play” is a useful stat to determine the extent to which a player’s batting average has been influenced by luck. This stat can also be used for pitchers as an unusually high BABIP allowed suggests that the pitcher’s ERA and WHIP are bound to go down with better luck.

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, April 20

Look who's back in a starting rotation!

SIANO’S PICKS

Buchholz @ Gonzalez *Clay finally gets a team not built to score.

Porcello @ Bedard *Nothing like a Oak / Sea stretch

Humber @ Davis *I’m a Wade Davis fan. Don’t love the 8/6 K/BB but will count on improvement. Humber still just a AL only play. Too unknown.

Blackburn @ Britton * I said pitch on Blackburn in TB and he got roughed up. He’s DTM. Said pitch on Britton @ Clv and he got roughed up. I’ll go back to well on Britton since Tribe lineup is much better than Twins.

Colon @ Cecil *This could be great or ugly. Going to pass but expecting to be entertained.

Weaver @ Harrison *Matt Harrison is 3-0 and has been pretty darn good.

Masterson @ Hochevar

Narveson @ Lee *Narveson stellar at home and mediocre in first road start @ WSH. If you have him already and want to roll dice it’s one thing but I wouldn’t pick him up for this start.

Harang @ Garza *Harangatang is 3-0 and has been pretty darn good. Cubs middle of pack in runs and HR. Why not.

Cain @ De La Rosa

Kennedy @ Arroyo *One really bad start has his ERA skewed. Guess you can say same for Arroyo but I trust Kennedy more.

Norris @ Dickey *Both guys too inconsistent but love Norris upside. Norris worth the risk if you’re in the mood because of the Ks.

Morton @ Nolasco *Charlie Morton has a 6/12 K/BB ratio but is 2-0 w/ a 1.64. Explain that one.

TBD @ J. Garcia

Lowe @ Garland

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