July 2011

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 30-August 1

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Britton @ Colon (Gm 1 of doubleheader)

TBD (BAL) @ Nova (Gm 2 of doubleheader)

Holland @ Mills – I’m still afraid to start Holland in tough matchups.

Haren @ Below

Cobb @ Pineda – Cobb pitching pretty well of late and this is about as good matchup there is.

Paulino @ Masterson – Paulino worth starting in deeper leagues for the strikeouts.

Lester @ Humber – Humber coming off two straight poor outings. I’m sitting him here.

Blackburn @ Moscoso – Start Blackburn if you’re feeling lucky but I don’t think he even deserves a roster spot in a 12-team mixed. I’ll give Moscoso a shot.

Lopez @ Lohse - I’m running out of patience with Lohse though…he’s on thin ice.

Dickey @ Marquis – Dickey holds a 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP since the beginning of June.

McDonald @ Lee – McDonald on a nice roll but Phils on the road is too tough of a matchup.

An. Sanchez @ T. Hudson

Happ @ Gallardo

Bumgarner @ Leake – Even with Beltran now aboard, Giants offense still below average.

Jimenez @ Harang – Harang’s money at home (5-2  2.92 ERA)

Owings @ Billingsley

                                                                                                                                                  SUNDAY

Weaver @ Verlander – This will be fun to watch.

Arrieta @ F. Garcia – Garcia totally unpredictable, but if you own him you gotta start him.

Davies @ Carmona – Carmona a decent option in deeper leagues if you want to take the risk.

Wilson @ Morrow – Morrow very risky after getting roughed up by O’s but I’ll give him another chance.

Miller @ Buehrle – Buehrle’s been so good at home (5-1  2.25 ERA) that you have to play him.

Pavano @ McCarthy – Great opportunity for Pavano to get back on track.

Price @ Vargas

Zito @ Cueto – Zito might not make this start.

Nolasco @ Hanson – I’ve given up trying to figure out Nolasco…just leave him in there and don’t think about it!

Niese @ Zimmermann

Karstens @ Worley – Dangerous matchup for Karstens but he’s been too good to sit. Ride Worley until he turns back into a pumpkin!

Myers @ Narveson – Myers coming off three straight quality starts. Narveson also solid of late.

Nicasio @ Moseley – I just don’t see much upside in Moseley, and he’s not even that good at home (1-6  4.05 ERA)

Saunders @ De La Rosa – Rubby 3 ER or less in each of his last five starts.

Dempster @ Westbrook – Dempster hard to trust but highy K rate is appealing.

                                                                                                                                               MONDAY

Tomlin @ Lackey – Risk outweighs reward for Tomlin here. I’m cautiously optimistic about Lackey.

Sabathia @ Peavy – Peavy not trustworthy vs. Yanks.

Cahill @ Fister – Great matchup for both.

Jurrjens @ Livan – Livan too erratic lately. Pass.

Zambrano @ Maholm

Vazquez @ Pelfrey – Decent matchup for Vazquez.

Arroyo @ Norris – So when will Arroyo’s traditional second half surge begin? We’re still waiting.

Carpenter @ Greinke

Hamels @ Chacin – Playing it safe on Chacin vs. Phils.

Kershaw @ Luebke

Kennedy @ Cain

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 29

Petco Park, not to mention the Padres lineup, could be the perfect cure for Jason Hammel.

CORY’S PICKS

Chatwood @ Porcello – still not trusting either
Guthrie @ Burnett – not trusting either
Francis @ Carrasco – still trusting him
Ogando @ Cecil – Texas not quite so fearsome on the road
Wakefield @ Floyd
Liriano @ Gonzalez
Niemann @ Bedard – don’t like Niemann but it’s the Mariners
Gee @ Wang
Morton @ Halladay
Vogelsong @ Willis
Hensley @ Beachy
Lyles @ Wolf
Garza @ Jackson
Hammel @ Stauffer – good matchup for struggling Hammel
Collmenter @ Lilly – I can take or leave Teddy Ballgame

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 28

CORY’S PICKS

Pineiro @ Penny
Hochevar @ Beckett
W. Davis @ Harden – sneaky gamble on Harden at home vs. so-so Rays
Bergesen @ Villanueva
Baker @ Harrison – Harrison hard to trust; Baker coming off DL at Texas, play it safe
TBD (FLA) @ Lannan
Capuano @ Bailey
Wells @ Marcum
D. Hudson @ Latos
Lincecum @ Kendrick
Correia @ Lowe – Padres are scoring on the road! Avoid!
Wandy @ J. Garcia

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 27

If you are still hesitant to bench your less than elite starters when they face the Rangers on the road, last night’s 20 run outburst might have changed your thinking. Not only does Texas lead the Majors in runs scored at home with 324, but the second place team, the Yankees, trail them by a whopping 34 runs! Barring injury concerns or very poor recent performance,  I’m not usually one to bench a solid starting pitcher. But in this case, I just think you’re better off playing it safe. Guard against those disaster outings and save yourself the headache.

Here’s Pitch or Ditch for tomorrow.

-Zach

__________________________________________________________________

SIANO’S PICKS

Big Erv @ Huff *Erv is on a roll baby.

King Felix @ Hughes *Hughes 6 BB and 13 Hits in last 10.1 IP. If you don’t start him vs Mariners you probably should cut him.

Scherzer @ Danks

Simon @ Romero

Chen @ Lackey *I’ll bite on Lackey.

Duensing @ Lewis

Shields @ Cahill *Could be a great game.

Vazquez @ Livan *Javy bounces back after run in with Padres juggernaut.

Cain @ Hamels

Pelfrey @ Arroyo

Maholm @ Jurrjens

Zambrano @ Greinke *Little too risky for Big Z here.

Norris @ Carpenter *Bud scuffling a little bit but I’d roll him out.

Kennedy @ Luebke *Luebke quietly putting together a nice little run.

Cook @ Kuroda *The best 6-12 SP in MLB makes his last start in Dodger Blue?

                                                                                                                                                ***CORY SAYS “Pitch on Hughes simply because it’s the Mariners. Agree on all the rest.”

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 26

It must have been tough for Desmond Jennings owners in both keeper and non-keeper formats to watch top prospect after top prospect get called up while the Rays simply refused to promote Jennings. As a Jennings owner in a keeper league, I was extremely frustrated. But all can be forgiven now. After going 4-for-6 with three extra-base hits and two steals over the weekend, Jennings is clearly here to stay, and a B.J. Upton trade (which as of now seems imminent) would signal that the Rays are 100 percent committed to the 24-year-old speedster. For keeper leaguers who are still in title contention, Jennings might just be the missing piece that puts their squad over the top. But even for those who are out of hope for 2011, Jennings offers plenty of hope for 2012 and beyond.

Now on to Pitch or Ditch…

-Zach

__________________________________________________________________________

CORY’S PICKS

Weaver @ Tomlin – gotta go with Tomlin vs. erratic Angels
Fister @ Sabathia
Arrieta @ Morrow
Duffy @ Miller – won’t risk Duffy vs. BOS; don’t trust Miller at all
Pavano @ Wilson
Verlander @ Peavy – hard to trust Peavy right now
Price @ McCarthy – McCarthy strong at home
Nolasco @ Zimmermann – hang with ‘em on the Nolasco Kid
Lincecum @ Worley – Worley is on a tear
Niese @ Cueto
Karstens @ Hanson – how long can Karstens keep this up!?
Dempster @ Narveson
Myers @ Westbrook – good game for deep league gamblers
Saunders @ Moseley
Chacin @ Kershaw – bench but don’t cut Chacin

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 23-25

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Harden @ Burnett – Harden an intriguing play in deeper leagues but I won’t chance it.

Penny @ Baker – Penny just too inconsistent. I’ll hold off on Baker in first start back.

Pineiro @ Bergesen – Pineiro pounded last time out…and it was the A’s!

Jackson @ Huff – Favorable matchup for Edwin.

Beavan @ Beckett

Niemann @ Francis – Niemann 1 ER or less in four of his last five outings.

Villanueva @ Harrison – Scary matchups for both.

Wandy @ Wells – Can’t trust Wells at all right now.

Lowe @ Bailey – Braves’ lineup not scary.

Latos @ Kendrick – Latos solid over his last four starts. Beware of the Padres’ lineup!

J. Garcia @ Correia

Capuano @ Hensley

Hammel @ Collmenter – Gotta stick with Collmenter while he’s hot!

Wolf @ Vogelsong

Gorzelanny @ Lilly – Gorzelanny’s a decent gamble in deeper leagues. I don’t trust Lilly.

                                                                                                                                                SUNDAY

Humber @ Masterson

Gonzalez @ Colon – Bartolo’s back on track.

Chatwood @ Guthrie – Guthrie coming off QS but hasn’t posted back-to-back quality starts since late-April.

Pineda @ Wakefield

Cobb @ Paulino – I’d gamble on Paulino here vs. mid-tier Rays lineup.

Porcello @ Liriano

Cecil @ Ogando – Scary matchup for Ogando but the results have been there all season.

Gee @ An. Sanchez

Stauffer @ Halladay

Lohse @ Morton – Lohse has been very shaky of late and Pirates are no longer a joke.

Lyles @ Garza - Not a good matchup for HR-prone Lyles.

Gallardo @ Bumgarner

Jimenez @ TBD (ARI)

Marquis @ Billingsley – Marquis 3 ER or less in four of his last five starts. Pitch if you’re willing to take some risk.

Beachy @ Willis

                                                                                                                                              MONDAY

Haren @ Tomlin – Haren’s traditional second half fade already in the works…try trading him if you can get full value back.

Vargas @ F. Garcia

Davies @ Lester

Blackburn @ Holland – Holland torched last time out but deserves another start.

Below @ Buehrle

Hellickson @ Moscoso – I was feeling good about Moscoso…before last start.

Harang @ Lee – Harang has earned this one.

Dickey @ Leake – Dickey a bit risky so wouldn’t blame you for sitting him here.

McDonald @ T. Hudson – McDonald just too inconsistent.

Happ @ McClellan

Nicasio @ De La Rosa

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 22

CORY’S PICKS

Big Erv @ Simon
Floyd @ Carrasco
Cahill @ Hughes
King Felix @ Lackey – trust Lackey at home vs. the M’s? Hmmm…
Reyes @ Lewis
Scherzer @ Duensing
W. Davis @ Hochevar
Norris @ Zambrano
Luebke @ Hamels
Carpenter @ Maholm – look for a strong finish from Carpenter
Jurrjens @ Arroyo
Pelfrey @ Volstad
Cook @ D. Hudson
Lannan @ Kuroda
Marcum @ Cain – good matchup for slumping Marcum

Updated Pitch or Ditch Category Chart (7/20)

Hey everyone,

It’s been awhile so here’s the updated Fantasy 411 Pitch or Ditch category chart:

PoD chart 7-20-11

A reminder as to how it works:

In an effort to help you make those all important Pitch or Ditch decisions, the 411 tribunal of Mike, Cory and I have divided all the starting pitchers in the Majors into five groups: Aces, Pitch or Ditch Graduates, Pitch or Ditch guys, DTMs and Indifferents.

Here’s a list of the notable changes that we’ve made since the last version of the chart that was posted in late-June:

PROMOTIONS

Morrow PoD to grad

Santana PoD to grad

Fister PoD to grad

Garza PoD to grad

Luebke PoD to grad

Carmona DTM to PoD

DEMOTIONS

Lilly grad to PoD

Peavy grad to PoD

Porcello grad to PoD

Zambrano grad to PoD

McClellan grad to PoD

 

That’s all for now. We’d love to hear your feedback!

-Zach

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 21

Since the start of May, Jon Niese is 8-3 with a 3.29 ERA.

 

CORY’S PICKS

Fister @ Romero

Wilson @ Weaver

Sabathia @ Shields

Verlander @ Pavano

Moseley @ Vazquez

Westbrook @ Niese

Hanson @ Chacin

Greinke @ Kennedy

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 20

 

Brandon McCarthy is 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA in six road starts this season.

CORY’S PICKS

Miller @ Arrieta – eeww

Tomlin @ Blackburn

McCarthy @ Below – not trusting B-Mac on the road

Vargas @ Morrow – tough matchup for Vargas

F. Garcia @ Price

Danks @ Chen

Holland @ Haren – tough matchup for Holland but he’s done well on the road

Cueto @ Karstens – have to ride Karstens while it lasts

Livan @ Myers – only going with Myers based on matchup

Worley @ Dempster

Kershaw @ Lincecum

Harang @ Nolasco

McClellan @ Dickey

T. Hudson @ Nicasio – Hudson risky in Coors, but he’s on a good run

Narveson @ Saunders

 

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