411 Expert Slow Mock

Hey everyone,

It’s official, the mock draft season is in full gear. Yesterday, we started up a 13-team, 30-round expert mock with many familiar names participating. I’ll be updating the results here on a regular basis so stay tuned. Here are the picks so far. Feel free to chime in with any questions or comments you might have, general or mock draft related.

On a side note, I’m sure a lot of you are wondering when Yu Darvish will come off the board. It won’t be anytime soon, but in the meantime check out Siano’s MLB.com article on Darvish. It’s a must-read!

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                    

MOCK DRAFT RESULTS

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 1

Jeff Erickson – Matt Kemp

Zach Steinhorn – Albert Pujols

Lawr Michaels – Miguel Cabrera

Cory Schwartz – Troy Tulowitzki

Ray Flowers – Robinson Cano

Steve Gardner – Jose Bautista

Todd Zola – Joey Votto

Joe Sheehan – Justin Upton

Will Carroll – Jacoby Ellsbury

Derek VanRiper – Carlos Gonzalez

Paul Sporer – Evan Longoria

Jason Collette – Prince Fielder

Eno Sarris – Hanley Ramirez

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  

ROUND 2

Eno Sarris – Dustin Pedroia

Jason Collette – Ian Kinsler

Paul Sporer – Jose Reyes

Derek VanRiper – Adrian Gonzalez

Will Carroll – Curtis Granderson

Joe Sheehan – Clayton Kershaw

Todd Zola – Andrew McCutchen

Steve Gardner – Justin Verlander

Ray Flowers – Mark Teixeira

Cory Schwartz – Josh Hamilton

Lawr Michaels – Ryan Zimmerman

Zach Steinhorn – Mike Stanton

Jeff Erickson – Roy Halladay

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 3

Jeff Erickson – David Wright

Zach Steinhorn – Matt Holliday

Lawr Michaels – Felix Hernandez

Cory Schwartz – Carlos Santana

Ray Flowers – Cliff Lee

Steve Gardner – Adrian Beltre

Todd Zola – Mike Napoli

Joe Sheehan – Ryan Braun

Will Carroll – Cole Hamels

Derek VanRiper – Elvis Andrus

Paul Sporer – Jay Bruce

Jason Collette – CC Sabathia

Eno Sarris – Brett Lawrie

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 4

Eno Sarris – Hunter Pence

Jason Collette – Pablo Sandoval

Paul Sporer – Brian McCann

Derek VanRiper – Alex Gordon

Will Carroll – David Price

Joe Sheehan – Carl Crawford

Todd Zola – Jered Weaver

Steve Gardner – Starlin Castro

Ray Flowers – Kevin Youkilis

Cory Schwartz – Desmond Jennings

Lawr Michaels – Tim Lincecum

Zach Steinhorn – Michael Bourn

Jeff Erickson – Shin-Soo Choo

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 5

JE – B.J. Upton

ZS – Alex Rodriguez

LM – Ben Zobrist

CS – Eric Hosmer

RF – Nelson Cruz

SG – Buster Posey

TZ – Brandon Phillips

JS – Craig Kimbrel

WC – Stephen Strasburg

DVR – Rickie Weeks

PS – Jason Heyward

JC – James Shields

ES – Jon Lester

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 6

ES – Dan Haren

JC – Matt Wieters

PS – Dan Uggla

DVR – Zack Greinke

WC – Drew Storen

JS – Joe Mauer

TZ – Jimmy Rollins

SG – Paul Konerko

RF – Shane Victorino

CS – Drew Stubbs

LM – Matt Cain

ZS – Asdrubal Cabrera

JE – Miguel Montero

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 7

JE – Alex Avila

ZS – Mariano Rivera

LM – Erick Aybar

CS – Jonathan Papelbon

RF – Adam Jones

SG – Brett Gardner

TZ – Yovani Gallardo

JS – Chase Utley

WC – Ichiro Suzuki

DVR – Aramis Ramirez

PS – Lance Berkman

JC – Corey Hart

ES – Mike Morse

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 8

ES – Joel Hanrahan

JC – Cameron Maybin

PS – John Axford

DVR – Brian Wilson

WC – Ryan Howard

JS – Matt Moore

TZ – Michael Young

SG – C.J. Wilson

RF – Howie Kendrick

CS – Madison Bumgarner

LM – Andre Ethier

ZS – David Ortiz

JE – Michael Cuddyer

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 9

JE – Dee Gordon

ZS – Ian Kennedy

LM – Nick Swisher

CS – Jayson Werth

RF – Mark Reynolds

SG – Billy Butler

TZ – Chris Young

JS – J.J. Hardy

WC – Ryan Roberts

DVR – Ike Davis

PS – Peter Bourjos

JC – Derek Jeter

ES – Adam Wainwright

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 10

ES – Logan Morrison

JC – Martin Prado

PS – Matt Garza

DVR – Brandon Beachy

WC – Dustin Ackley

JS – Mike Moustakas

TZ – Ryan Madson

SG – Andrew Bailey

RF – Alexei Ramirez

CS – Jason Kipnis

LM – Jordan Walden

ZS – Jemile Weeks

JE – Kenley Jansen

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 11

JE – Brandon League

ZS – Jose Valverde

LM – Nick Markakis

CS – Jason Motte

RF – Ricky Romero

SG – Danny Espinosa

TZ – Chris Carpenter

JS – Jesus Montero

WC – Yadier Molina

DVR – Neil Walker

PS – Dan Hudson

JC – Michael Pineda

ES – Freddie Freeman

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 12

ES – Lucas Duda

JC – Sergio Santos

PS – Huston Street

DVR – Brandon Belt

WC – Yu Darvish

JS – Joakim Soria

TZ – Rafael Betancourt

SG – Mat Latos

RF – Josh Beckett

CS – Edwin Encarnacion

LM – Carlos Marmol

ZS – Gio Gonzalez

JE – Paul Goldschmidt

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 13

JE – Kelly Johnson

ZS – Austin Jackson

LM – Coco Crisp

CS – Jordan Zimmermann

RF – Wandy Rodriguez

SG – Carlos Beltran

TZ – Cory Luebke

JS – Brandon Morrow

WC – Emilio Bonifacio

DVR – Josh Johnson

PS – Jeremy Hellickson

JC – Matt Joyce

ES – Tommy Hanson

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 14

ES – Josh Willingham

JC – J.J. Putz

PS – Carlos Pena

DVR – Ubaldo Jimenez

WC – Heath Bell

JS – Justin Morneau

TZ – Adam Lind

SG – Angel Pagan

RF – Alex Rios

CS – Anibal Sanchez

LM – Mike Trout

ZS – Ervin Santana

JE – Joe Nathan

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 15

JE – Max Scherzer

ZS – Jhonny Peralta

LM – J.P. Arencibia

CS – David Freese

RF – Chris Perez

SG – Johnny Cueto

TZ – Torii Hunter

JS – Derek Holland

WC – Bryce Harper

DVR – Colby Rasmus

PS – Gaby Sanchez

JC – Daniel Murphy

ES – Wilson Ramos

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 16

ES – Frank Francisco

JC – Jeff Francoeur

PS – Jaime Garcia

DVR – Grant Balfour

WC – Geovany Soto

JS – Dexter Fowler

TZ – Carlos Lee

SG – Stephen Drew

RF – Melky Cabrera

CS – Brennan Boesch

LM – Jonathan LuCroy

ZS – Shaun Marcum

JE – Vernon Wells

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 17

JE – Trevor Cahill

ZS – Russell Martin

LM – Justin Masterson

CS – Brandon McCarthy

RF – Ryan Doumit

SG – Kyle Farnsworth

TZ – Marco Scutaro

JS – Neftali Feliz

WC – Clay Buchholz

DVR – John Danks

PS – Chris Heisey

JC – Mark Trumbo

ES – Zack Cozart

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 18

ES – Ben Revere

JC – Sean Rodriguez

PS – Alcides Escobar

DVR – Adam Dunn

WC – Scott Rolen

JS – Yunel Escobar

TZ – Ted Lilly

SG – Jason Kubel

RF – Kurt Suzuki

CS – Ramon Hernandez

LM – Jhoulys Chacin

ZS – Kendrys Morales

JE – Jed Lowrie

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 19

JE – Michael Brantley

ZS – Matt Capps

LM – Gordon Beckham

CS – Matt Thornton

RF – Carlos Quentin

SG – Hiroki Kuroda

TZ – Yoenis Cespedes

JS – Lorenzo Cain

WC – Yonder Alonso

DVR – Jarrod Saltalamacchia

PS – Chris Iannetta

JC – Colby Lewis

ES – Addison Reed

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 20

ES – Tim Hudson

JC – Devin mesoraco

PS – Edwin Jackson

DVR – Vance Worley

WC – Dayan Viciedo

JS – Ian Desmond

TZ – Ryan Raburn

SG – David Robertson

RF – Scott Baker

CS – John Mayberry

LM – Alexi Ogando

ZS – Bud Norris

JE – Aaron Hill

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 21

JE – Doug Fister

ZS – Mike Minor

LM – Jair Jurrjens

CS – Ricky Nolasco

RF – Alejandro DeAza

SG – Miguel Olivo

TZ – Tim Stauffer

JS – Julio Teheran

WC – Ivan Nova

DVR – Salvador Perez

PS – Roy Oswalt

JC – Jim Johnson

ES – Chris Sale

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 22

ES – Mitch Moreland

JC – Gavin Floyd

PS – Lonnie Chisenhall

DVR – Nolan Reimold

WC – Grady Sizemore

JS – Jonny Venters

TZ – John Buck

SG – Javy Guerra

RF – Ryan Dempster

CS – Luke Hochevar

LM – Aubrey Huff

ZS – Delmon Young

JE – R.A. Dickey

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 23

JE – Mark Buehrle

ZS – Carlos Ruiz

LM – Mike Carp

CS – Jose Altuve

RF – Jonathan Sanchez

SG – Ty Wigginton

TZ – David Carpenter

JS – Tyler Pastornicky

WC – Johan Santana

DVR – Chad Billingsley

PS – Jake Peavy

JC – Matt Harrison

ES – Chase Headley

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   ROUND 24

ES – Ryan Hanigan

JC – Nick Hundley

PS – Denard Span

DVR – Justin Smoak

WC – Rafael Furcal

JS – Chipper Jones

TZ – Daniel Bard

SG – Allen Craig

RF – Pedro Alvarez

CS – Aroldis Chapman

LM – Cliff Pennington

ZS – Jose Tabata

JE – Edinson Volquez

17 Comments

Seems early for the Carlos Santana pick.

Hi 411, interesting to see Cory take C Santana before McCann even though both were available. See B-Mac’s top of your catcher rankings, so any reason for the change here? D Wright and King Felix should look good value in the 3rd too.

Wondering about the draft day cost of Jay Bruce, is he worth more than $25? I’ve got an option of keeping him, 1 yr for $25 or 2 yrs for $28, would you do either? I was kinda expecting him to breakout this year but reading some articles on his last years underlying stats im not so sure, sounds like this could be as good as he gets.

Thanks.

Dan

@Dan, I took Santana over McCann because I think he has 30-35 HR upside this year, which McCann does not, and that his low AVG last year was a BABIP fluke and will rise back into the .270’s this year. Plus he’ll steal a few bags. McCann has a proven track record to warrant the #1 ranking, but I like Santana’s upside this year so I made the more aggressive pick.

I see where you have Kemp (1) and Fielder (12). I have an interesting trade evaluation.

It’s Kemp for Fielder straight up. I am in a keeper league 6×6+1. (offensively it is HR, R, RBI, SB, R, OBP). We have a $400 salary cap with 1, 2 and 3 year contracts. We field 8 positions, 1 DH, 3 UT (pitcher or hitter), 3 RP and 4 SP. We have 34 roster spots (Players must have MLB experience to be on the roster – Harper is grandfathered in) with 6 taxi squad players. The player pool is closed after our live auction draft day. with each team only able to select 1 additional player throughout the season.

In 2012 Kemp will be in the 2nd year of a 3 year deal and will be $27 then $30. Fielder is a free agent at $21 and will be signed for 3 years at $26, $30 and $33.

I am the team with Kemp. Here are my other players I’m keeping: Wieters, Gaby Sanchez, Kinsler, Jose Bautista, Hardy, Adam Jones, J. Upton, Bruce, Choo, Miguel Montero, Stanton, Bryce Harper, Mesoraco and Bourjos. I rarely keep any pitchers as I prefer to buy them on draft day.

Here is my thought process. I’m not comfortable going through the season with Sanchez as my primary 1B. Miggy, Pujols and Tex will be available on draft day but will all cost in excess of $40 and some possibly $50. I have a great depth in the OF. I know Kemp is the class of the lot. By trading my depth for 1B I save myself $40 on draft day that I can then spend on any position and pitching. The team I am in talks with is equally as strong if not stronger offensively. He has Votto and Fielder at 1B. The other thing is he’ll be going after pitching the same as I will. I view this as locking a position and preserving money. Let me know your thoughts please.

@pmr,

All things equal, Kemp’s the guy to keep, but your reasoning is sound. I too am very down on Sanchez and 20 homers from a first baseman is simply unacceptable. The main downside of making this trade though is that it really hurts your speed and, as of now, you’re a lot deeper in power than you are in speed. That said, the considerable $ savings and resulting flexibility makes the deal worth it.

Zach

Quick contrast/comparison on LoMo and Gardner… I know we’ll see both of these names pop in a few rounds further into the draft, but can you guys give me an idea of who you with has the higher ceiling and your thoughts on this season?

I’m singling down my final keeper spot and have Brett in the 14th and LoMo in the 15th. Thoughts?

Eric,

I’ll update this soon but Gardner was taken in the 7th round and LoMo was selected with the first pick of the 10th round. 7th round is a bit too early for Gardner in my opinion, but I agree that he should definitely be taken before Morrison. Brett dominates in a category while LoMo doesn’t. That’s what makes the difference. Gardner for a 14 is outstanding value. Morrison might have the slightly higher all-around ceiling but the fact that Gardner can carry you in steals gives him the edge.

Zach

Hi Zach,

Keeper question for you (12 team vanilla, we keep 5). I have Longoria, Stanton and Texeira, so am sorted for power. I have Andrus, who I’m keeping because of positional scarcity and SBs. My last choice is between 2 OFs – Hamilton (power but a health risk) and Bourne (SBs) – the issue is how often Bourne will get the green light in ATL. I managed to get the data on team SB attempts in 2011, and ATL ranked 27th. Do you think they’ll give him the green light, or will his SB opportunities shrink compared to HOU? Appreciate your thoughts.

Cheers,

Daff

Daff,

Well, if last season was any indication, I’m not concerned at all about Bourn’s SB attempts. He swiped 39 bags in 105 games with Houston before racking up 22 steals in 53 games with the Braves. In fact, proportionally he stole more with Atlanta. In a scratch draft, Hamilton will be taken a couple of rounds before Bourn, but given your situation I’m not opposed to keeping Bourn. I’m not a Hamilton fan due to the injury-risk, so I’d rather he be someone else’s headache. But that’s just me. Bourn gives you the more balanced keeper group.

Zach

Has the 2012 list of 12 come out yet?

Luke,

We’re aiming to have it up on the blog sometime today.

Zach

Thanks Cory, will have Santana down as a sleeper.
Any chance you can give me your thoughts on Jay Bruce too (question above)? Know you’re a big fan of his so interested to know your thoughts particularly! Do like his upside at a fairly weak position this year but wanna make sure I’m not overpaying for him.

Feel free to answer too Zach, any opinion is welcome :)

Dan,

I like Bruce and do believe he’ll get better (how much better I don’t know) but the strikeouts and inconsistent AVG still worry me. On Mock Draft Central, he’s the #13 OF on the expert ADP rankings (#38 overall) and I just don’t see a ton of upside in taking him at that spot. I’d sooner go with a guy like Hunter Pence who is more proven. Pence is ranked #52 on the MDC expert list and was taken a few picks after Bruce in the above mock draft. $25 is about as high as I’d go for Bruce, so I’d opt against keeping him. If you can get him back for $25, that’s fine. But if someone else is willing to pay more (and someone probably will), that’s fine too.

Zach

Hey Big Z, good work on the blog as always.
Any chance of including players auction values for standard leagues sometime? Would be very useful for my auction keeper league, where im often in talks with teams about possible trades, and knowing how much players with roughly cost next year would be a great help.

Hey BB!

It’s very hard to do auction values, particularly for keeper leagues, as they are heavily dependent on your individual league format. The MLB.com Fantasy Preview will be up on the site sometime in the next week or so, and we put auction values on there. But be warned that they tend to be too low for my liking. And that’s not even taking into account the keeper factor. Feel free to ask me about certain players though. Personally, I have yet to find a set of dollar values, whether they be ESPN, CBS, etc. that satisfy me!

Zach

@pmrlcomm – Also note the importance of OBP in this league. Prince has been over .400 in each of the past three seasons and has a career .390 OBP, while Kemp’s .399 last year was a career-best but he has a career .350 mark. That edge gives Prince a little more value and helps outweigh the loss of the SB’s.

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