February 2012

411 Draft Prep Central

Hey guys,

Let’s call this the hub of all things draft prep related. Here’s where you’ll find all the resources you need as your drafts draw near. I’ll be updating this list regularly as new content becomes available. Stay tuned!

-Zach

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Cory’s Composite Projections

Fantasy 411 Positional Rankings for 2012

Mike and Cory’s Overrated and Underrated Teams for 2012

Our List of 12 for 2012

Mike’s MLB.com Article on Darvish

Mixed LABR Draft Results

AL LABR Draft Results

NL LABR Results + Zach’s NL-only Mock

Updated 2012 Positional Rankings

Hey everyone,

It’s been close to two months since we posted our last set of 2012 positional rankings and a ton has happened since early-January. So here’s our updated version. We’ve tried to balance out track record and upside while also taking into account recent mock draft trends. Enjoy!

-Zach

                                                                                                                                             CATCHER

1. Carlos Santana

2. Mike Napoli

3. Brian McCann

4. Miguel Montero

5. Buster Posey

6. Alex Avila

7. Matt Wieters

8. Joe Mauer

9. Yadier Molina

10. Russell Martin

Honorable Mentions: Wilson Ramos, J.P. Arencibia, Geovany Soto

                                                                                                                                                     FIRST BASE

1. Albert Pujols

2. Miguel Cabrera

3. Adrian Gonzalez

4. Joey Votto

5. Prince Fielder

6. Mark Teixeira

7. Eric Hosmer

8. Paul Konerko

9. Lance Berkman

10. Michael Morse

Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman

                                                                                                                                                 SECOND BASE

1. Robinson Cano

2. Dustin Pedroia

3. Ian Kinsler

4. Dan Uggla

5. Ben Zobrist

6. Chase Utley

7. Rickie Weeks

8. Brandon Phillips

9. Howard Kendrick

10. Jason Kipnis

Honorable Mentions: Dustin Ackley, Ryan Roberts, Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa

                                                                                                                                      SHORTSTOP

1. Troy Tulowitzki

2. Hanley Ramirez

3. Jose Reyes

4. Starlin Castro

5. Elvis Andrus

6. Jimmy Rollins

7. Asdrubal Cabrera

8. Alexei Ramirez

9. J.J. Hardy

10. Derek Jeter

Honorable Mentions: Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar

                                                                                                                                                   THIRD BASE

1. Jose Bautista

2. Evan Longoria

3. Adrian Beltre

4. David Wright

5. Ryan Zimmerman

6. Brett Lawrie

7. Pablo Sandoval

8. Alex Rodriguez

9. Michael Young

10. Kevin Youkilis

Honorable Mentions: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds

                                                                                                                                          OUTFIELD

1. Matt Kemp

2. Ryan Braun

3. Jacoby Ellsbury

4. Justin Upton

5. Carlos Gonzalez

6. Curtis Granderson

7. Andrew McCutchen

8. Mike Stanton

9. Matt Holliday

10. Hunter Pence

11. Jay Bruce

12. Josh Hamilton

13. Desmond Jennings

14. Michael Bourn

15. Nelson Cruz

Honorable Mentions: Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Shane Victorino

                                                                                                                                         STARTING PITCHER

1. Justin Verlander

2. Clayton Kershaw

3. Roy Halladay

4. Cliff Lee

5. Tim Lincecum

6. Felix Hernandez

7. CC Sabathia

8. Jered Weaver

9. Cole Hamels

10. Dan Haren

11. David Price

12. Matt Cain

13. Jon Lester

14. Zack Greinke

15. Yovani Gallardo

Honorable Mentions: Ricky Romero, James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Madison Bumgarner

                                                                                                                                                 RELIEF PITCHER

1. Craig Kimbrel

2. Mariano Rivera

3. Jonathan Papelbon

4. John Axford

5. Drew Storen

6. Heath Bell

7. Jose Valverde

8. Brian Wilson

9. Joel Hanrahan

10. Ryan Madson

Honorable Mentions: J.J. Putz, Andrew Bailey, Jason Motte, Joakim Soria, Jordan Walden

Composite Projections Have Arrived!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 11 different providers. That’s down from the 16 sources we used last year, but still a very large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes all players who were included in at least six (that, is more than half) of the 11 systems.

***EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the corrected version, with shortstops included.

2012 Composite Projections

For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:

* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.

* As with all projections systems, playing time is key… these are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.

* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966). This has proven in past seasons to correlate very well with “actual” RBI’s, but feel free to adjust RBI totals up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than a leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.

* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.

* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for relievers moving into starting rotations (Sale, Chapman, Bard, Feliz, etc.) or who will be the closer for each team (i.e., Guerra vs. Jansen). Adjust as you see fit.

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. The Age column is the player’s age as of July 1, the traditional midpoint of the season.

* The GxP tab includes total games played at each position for MLB and the minors (excluding the Mexican League). Position eligibility on the Batting tab is based on standard roto rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position where the player appeared the most if less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.

Here are some older blog posts that help explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/

I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. I’ll post an updated set of projections in a few weeks after I tweak them for playing time, roles, run/RBI correlation, etc. Enjoy!

Thanks,

Cory

411 Glossary + MLB.com Fantasy Preview + Tout Rosters

Zach here,

A couple of years ago,  Cory, Mike and I put together a glossary of both popular 411 sayings and general fantasy baseball terms. As a new season draws near, I figured I’d re-post the glossary, which should be particularly helpful to those of you who are either new to the show or new to fantasy.

Click Here to download the glossary.

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In other news, the 2012 MLB.com Fantasy Preview applet was launched yesterday. It includes over 800 player blurbs, rankings, projections and dollar values along with printable cheat sheets, so check it out!

Also, the 2012 Tout Wars lineups are set, so visit the Tout site for that info and more.

Cory’s Baseball Prospectus Chat

Hey everyone,

Just a quick note that Cory did an online chat for Baseball Prospectus today, covering all things fantasy and some other topics too! Click Here to read the full Q&A transcript.

-Zach

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