February 2012
411 Draft Prep Central
Hey guys,
Let’s call this the hub of all things draft prep related. Here’s where you’ll find all the resources you need as your drafts draw near. I’ll be updating this list regularly as new content becomes available. Stay tuned!
-Zach
________________________________________________________________________
Fantasy 411 Positional Rankings for 2012
Mike and Cory’s Overrated and Underrated Teams for 2012
Updated 2012 Positional Rankings
Hey everyone,
It’s been close to two months since we posted our last set of 2012 positional rankings and a ton has happened since early-January. So here’s our updated version. We’ve tried to balance out track record and upside while also taking into account recent mock draft trends. Enjoy!
-Zach
CATCHER
1. Carlos Santana
2. Mike Napoli
3. Brian McCann
4. Miguel Montero
5. Buster Posey
6. Alex Avila
7. Matt Wieters
8. Joe Mauer
9. Yadier Molina
10. Russell Martin
Honorable Mentions: Wilson Ramos, J.P. Arencibia, Geovany Soto
FIRST BASE
1. Albert Pujols
2. Miguel Cabrera
3. Adrian Gonzalez
4. Joey Votto
5. Prince Fielder
6. Mark Teixeira
7. Eric Hosmer
8. Paul Konerko
9. Lance Berkman
10. Michael Morse
Honorable Mention: Freddie Freeman
SECOND BASE
1. Robinson Cano
2. Dustin Pedroia
3. Ian Kinsler
4. Dan Uggla
5. Ben Zobrist
6. Chase Utley
7. Rickie Weeks
8. Brandon Phillips
9. Howard Kendrick
10. Jason Kipnis
Honorable Mentions: Dustin Ackley, Ryan Roberts, Neil Walker, Danny Espinosa
SHORTSTOP
1. Troy Tulowitzki
2. Hanley Ramirez
3. Jose Reyes
4. Starlin Castro
5. Elvis Andrus
6. Jimmy Rollins
7. Asdrubal Cabrera
8. Alexei Ramirez
9. J.J. Hardy
10. Derek Jeter
Honorable Mentions: Jhonny Peralta, Erick Aybar
THIRD BASE
1. Jose Bautista
2. Evan Longoria
3. Adrian Beltre
4. David Wright
5. Ryan Zimmerman
6. Brett Lawrie
7. Pablo Sandoval
8. Alex Rodriguez
9. Michael Young
10. Kevin Youkilis
Honorable Mentions: Aramis Ramirez, Mark Reynolds
OUTFIELD
1. Matt Kemp
2. Ryan Braun
3. Jacoby Ellsbury
4. Justin Upton
5. Carlos Gonzalez
6. Curtis Granderson
7. Andrew McCutchen
8. Mike Stanton
9. Matt Holliday
10. Hunter Pence
11. Jay Bruce
12. Josh Hamilton
13. Desmond Jennings
14. Michael Bourn
15. Nelson Cruz
Honorable Mentions: Alex Gordon, Shin-Soo Choo, Shane Victorino
STARTING PITCHER
1. Justin Verlander
2. Clayton Kershaw
3. Roy Halladay
4. Cliff Lee
5. Tim Lincecum
6. Felix Hernandez
7. CC Sabathia
8. Jered Weaver
9. Cole Hamels
10. Dan Haren
11. David Price
12. Matt Cain
13. Jon Lester
14. Zack Greinke
15. Yovani Gallardo
Honorable Mentions: Ricky Romero, James Shields, Ian Kennedy, Madison Bumgarner
RELIEF PITCHER
1. Craig Kimbrel
2. Mariano Rivera
3. Jonathan Papelbon
4. John Axford
5. Drew Storen
6. Heath Bell
7. Jose Valverde
8. Brian Wilson
9. Joel Hanrahan
10. Ryan Madson
Honorable Mentions: J.J. Putz, Andrew Bailey, Jason Motte, Joakim Soria, Jordan Walden
Composite Projections Have Arrived!
Hi folks,
Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 11 different providers. That’s down from the 16 sources we used last year, but still a very large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes all players who were included in at least six (that, is more than half) of the 11 systems.
***EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the corrected version, with shortstops included.
For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:
* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.
* As with all projections systems, playing time is key… these are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.
* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966). This has proven in past seasons to correlate very well with “actual” RBI’s, but feel free to adjust RBI totals up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than a leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.
* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.
* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for relievers moving into starting rotations (Sale, Chapman, Bard, Feliz, etc.) or who will be the closer for each team (i.e., Guerra vs. Jansen). Adjust as you see fit.
* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. The Age column is the player’s age as of July 1, the traditional midpoint of the season.
* The GxP tab includes total games played at each position for MLB and the minors (excluding the Mexican League). Position eligibility on the Batting tab is based on standard roto rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position where the player appeared the most if less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.
Here are some older blog posts that help explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/
http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/
I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. I’ll post an updated set of projections in a few weeks after I tweak them for playing time, roles, run/RBI correlation, etc. Enjoy!
Thanks,
Cory
411 Glossary + MLB.com Fantasy Preview + Tout Rosters
Zach here,
A couple of years ago, Cory, Mike and I put together a glossary of both popular 411 sayings and general fantasy baseball terms. As a new season draws near, I figured I’d re-post the glossary, which should be particularly helpful to those of you who are either new to the show or new to fantasy.
Click Here to download the glossary.
_________________________________________________________________________________________
In other news, the 2012 MLB.com Fantasy Preview applet was launched yesterday. It includes over 800 player blurbs, rankings, projections and dollar values along with printable cheat sheets, so check it out!
Also, the 2012 Tout Wars lineups are set, so visit the Tout site for that info and more.
Cory’s Baseball Prospectus Chat
Hey everyone,
Just a quick note that Cory did an online chat for Baseball Prospectus today, covering all things fantasy and some other topics too! Click Here to read the full Q&A transcript.
-Zach
mlbtstufantasy411
Recent Comments