Composite Projections Have Arrived!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 11 different providers. That’s down from the 16 sources we used last year, but still a very large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season. This spreadsheet includes all players who were included in at least six (that, is more than half) of the 11 systems.

***EDITOR’S NOTE: This is the corrected version, with shortstops included.

2012 Composite Projections

For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:

* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here! Adjust the numbers as you see fit, that’s up to you.

* As with all projections systems, playing time is key… these are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.

* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966). This has proven in past seasons to correlate very well with “actual” RBI’s, but feel free to adjust RBI totals up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than a leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.

* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.

* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for relievers moving into starting rotations (Sale, Chapman, Bard, Feliz, etc.) or who will be the closer for each team (i.e., Guerra vs. Jansen). Adjust as you see fit.

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. The Age column is the player’s age as of July 1, the traditional midpoint of the season.

* The GxP tab includes total games played at each position for MLB and the minors (excluding the Mexican League). Position eligibility on the Batting tab is based on standard roto rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position where the player appeared the most if less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.

Here are some older blog posts that help explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/

I hope this helps you all in your draft prep. I’ll post an updated set of projections in a few weeks after I tweak them for playing time, roles, run/RBI correlation, etc. Enjoy!

Thanks,

Cory

44 Comments

Thanks Cory!! This is gold for tracking my players during the draft.

-Tom

Cory – First time downloader of your composite projections. Looks great! Could I suggest an additional ‘League’ column (maybe next to Team) so we could sort the Excel sheet by AL or NL?

Was broken down by league last year as well, so hopefully on the next release.

Great job but there seems to be a problem with the pitching numbers. I understand this is a composite of 11 different sources but the total wins and losses are 2,994 and 2,933 respectively. Since there is only a possibility of 2,430 wins, why such a disparity in the numbers. Also, I’m sure these numbers don’t include wins or losses from players that are in the bigs for only a few games. Any explanation? Thanks, Ed

Zach,

I won last years League because of Fantasy 411 advice. Thank you so much and look forward to having as much fun this year. So it starts again, and the commissioner made some changes in my League that are causing me to rethink my two keepers in a 12 team League. He increased the points on HR’s from 5 to 10 points, as well as Grand Slam points from 10 to 20 points. Also he reduced the pitching staff from 5 to 4 starters. I was going to keep Cliff Lee and Hiroki Kuroda, but now leaning toward Tulowitski and Justin Upton. With less to choose from I was thinking At least to have two sure Starters. Here is my team any thoughts on this?

C – Mike Napoli
1B – Eric Hosmer
2B – Ben Zobrist,
3B – David Freese
SS- Troy Tulowitzki,
SS – Derek Jeter
3B – Brett Lawrie
1B – Gaby Sanchez
2B – Rickie Weeks

OF – Michael Bourn
OF – Brett Gardner
OF – Nick Swisher
OF – Corey Hart
OF – Peter Bourjos
OF – Justin Upton
OF – Jason Kubel

P – Daniel Hudson
P – Felix Hernandez
P – Cliff Lee,
P – Chris Carpenter
P – Hiroki Kuroda
P / RP – Cory Luebke,
RP – John Axford,
RP – Andrew Bailey
RP – Sergio Santos

Herman,

Even if your league stuck with the previous scoring format, I would’ve chosen Tulo and Upton. Now, the decision is even easier. Stud hitters over pitchers, even if we’re talking about an ace like Lee. This is the single most important part of the 411 philosophy!

Zach

As always, Fantastic Cory! Thank for being awesome.

Any chance you have a composite of projected complete games by pitchers?

Cory writes: ” RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead, they are calculated using the “Padden formula”, which is: RBI=(((1B*0.02)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966).”

For the math geeks, I think the formula above contains a typo. The RBI totals in the spreadsheet are much closer if you use

RBI = (((1B*0.2)+(2B+3B)+(HR*3))*0.6966)

Brad from Cupertino
(math geek)

The 2011 projections listed DoB rather than Age as of July 1, which was nice to have in order to use Excel to calculate any player’s age as of any date. If DoB is something that’s still available in your source data, could it be added back in for 2012 please? Thank you.

Zach,

Thanks for the advise. I set my keepers to Tulo and Justin Upton giving up my 1st and 2nd pick. One last question… should I make my 3rd pick a pitcher, or go for the next available hitter and then a pitcher in the 4th round? I

Herman

Herman,

Depends on who the pitcher is (if it’s a guy like Halladay, Verlander or Kershaw I’d consider it) but generally speaking, I tend to wait longer before taking my first SP, Even fourth round is a bit too early for my liking.

Zach

Is Brett Lawrie going to be as good as advertised? I want to trade for him, but I have my doubts with these rookies/sophomores, had Heyward last year and we all know what happened to him.

Brent,

We’re all very high on Lawrie this year, and he proved during his brief big league time last season that he’s the real deal. That said, I also think that there’s a point when a player goes from being a great sleeper to a risky pick given their expected price tag. It all depends on who you have to give up to get him though. He’s a top-60 player but I’m seeing him go as high as the third round in some mock drafts. In a non-keeper league particularly, I wouldn’t feel very comfortable taking him that early.

Zach

Lawrie is a dollar in a 5 year keeper league. I was thinking of giving the owner Jon Lester ($22), or Pence ($14) neither of whom I plan on keeping.

Brent,

Yeah, that’s definitely a worthwhile gamble. Pull the trigger!

Zach

Alright dropping Rafeal Furcal (I have shopped him, but no takers {I thought him for Jamey Carroll was a good deal}) and I decided to go with someone who can help my AVG. Which of these can help the most?
Jesus Guzman, Jose Constanza, Endy Chavez, Brian Bogusevic, or Brain Roberts

Never mind just between Contanza and Roberts?

Jon,

Constanza won’t even be starting this year, so for the time being he carries very minimal fantasy value. Even though Roberts’ health status is still a mystery, he would be my choice by default. Of course, monitor his progress throughout spring training. If healthy, he could be a difference maker.

Zach

Interesting choice I have in a league. We are switching to an auction for this year’s redraft. I can keep 1 of Tulo, Bautista, Braun. That’s my personal order. I figure Tulo would cost the most to get back. Sound like the right plan?

Casey,

Tough choice as all three are clear-cut first rounders, but yeah, I’d go with Tulo. Position scarcity plays a huge factor as I’m not impressed at all by the depth at SS. It’s better than it has been in years past, but it’s still rather ugly…a lot shallower than 3B, which isn’t that great either.

Zach

Hey guys,

Glad to be back at it again. How does the overturning of Ryan Braun’s 50 game suspension affect his composite projections? Also, would this development change the updated rankings you guys put out last month? Everywhere I look, Braun has jumped up from the basement to the attic as a guy you must have on your roster. Would you agree?

Glenn

Crazy. I just logged on to ask the same question about Braun’s updated projections.

-The other Glenn.

Glenn,

We’ll be posting another update to the position rankings early next week, so stay tuned for that. Personally though, I think a strong argument can be made for drafting him #1 overall. He carries a slightly more extensive track record of excellence than Kemp and I think his power/speed combo gives him the edge over Pujols. No way would I rank him any lower than #3, but that’s just me!

Zach

Keeper league, 5 by 5 roto league keep 6. Who do I keep out of these 8?

Jon Lester
Zack Greinke
Miguel Cabrera
Carlos Santana
Ian Kinsler
Matt Kemp
Mike Stanton
Jay Bruce

Rich,

Keep the six bats and draft pitching early.

Zach

Hey guys,
If you could pick ten keepers out of this group who would they be?
The league is a 20 team, Mixed, Weekly H2H league with 10 Cats: R,HR,RBI,SB,AVG and Ks,Wins, SVs, ERA, WHIP

Hitters:
Matt Wieters
Jesus Montero
Adrian Gonzalez
Rickie Weeks
Danny Espinosa
Justin Upton
Matt Holliday
Jason Heyward
Yonder Alonso

Pitchers:
David Price
Tommy Hanson
Gio Gonzalez
Daniel Bard
Drew Storen
Jordan Walden

Here is the link to the team itself:

http://games.espn.go.com/flb/clubhouse?leagueId=15057&teamId=18

Thanks for all your help,
The Manoman

http://manoman.mlblogs.com

Manoman,

The five I’d leave out would be Bard, Montero, Espinosa, Alonso and Hanson. Gio vs. Hanson is very close but Hanson’s recent arm issues are a bit worrisome as far as his long-term outlook goes.

Zach

Love the composites. Thanks as always, Cory! Running those projections against my keepers and league format I get some locks to keep and some guys on the bubble with projected value at or near salary. Would you keep any of these bubble guys on a 9 team NL only 4×4? I could keep up to 2 – but don’t have to. Heyward $26, Ethier $23, Ruben Tejada $1, Carlos Ruiz, or Randal Delgado $1?

Hey, Guys – quick keeper question.

In a 14tm roto, standard categories, I need to keep 5 from among the following. I have the 10th pick in the first round; keepers are at the cost of round value

R. Braun – round 1
D. Pedroia – round 3
J. Ellsbury – round 6
D. Price – round 7
C. Santana – round 11
D. Jennings – round 22

With 70 players being kept, there’s quite a talent vaccum that exists in the early rounds – I suppose I’m torn between keeping David Price or Desmond Jennings for the final spot.

Thanks!

Duker,

I’d leave out Price. Jennings for a 22 is an absolute no-brainer.

Zach

Thanks, Zach – That’s how it seemed to me, but with only 3OF spots I thought maybe an Ace SP would win out. If I can’t move any of these players in deals before our draft, I’ll cut Price.

Thanks again, and thanks to Cory for putting together the projections. Awesome tool!

I was wondering in a AL only league that is vanillia 5×5 rotisserie league with
2C
1B
3B
CM
2B
SS
MM
5OF
4sp
1P
4RP

What percentage of your auction budget would you spend at each position?

Luke,

In a standard $260 budget auction league, I try for around 175/85 in favor of hitting. In a non-mixed I’d probably adjust it slightly towards pitching…figure 165/95. But each draft is totally different and the key to auctions is to be able to adjust on the fly depending on the market. You might even wind up getting your targeted starting pitchers for cheaper than anticipated if many of the owners in your league decide to pay a premium for the top-tier guys.

Zach

Zach,

I just wanted to get your take on what site you think is the best to join for a keeper league or even just a regular one season league.I am willing to try my hand at a money league or just a for fun league it doesn’t matter much. I have only ever played in yahoo leagues and I’m looking to broaden my fantasy outlook. The keeper league i was involved in fell apart pretty much when the commissioner decided to change the categories again adding 3 negative categories to pitching basically making starters worthless and relievers the most valuable commodity in our league. its pretty bad when Rotowires draft software ranks Grant Balfour ahead of Andrew McCutchen because of the commissioners new categories. thanks in advance.

Dmenz

Dmenz,

I prefer ESPN. I’ve found that the live scoring is a little easier to follow than Yahoo and the game in general offers more options if you play in a Custom League. The draft applet runs very smoothly as well. CBS Commissioner leagues are OK in-season but I don’t like the draft applet at all and there’s one major problem with the game in general…it’s not free!

Zach

Hi-

I play in a 10 team 5×5 mixed league where each player is assigned a salary at the start of the season. The salary cap is $260. I am allowed to keep 1 player at last years salary in the round I drafted that player. Can you please let me know who you would keep out of the following: Miggy-1st round at $29, Prince-3rd Round at $22, Reyes-9th Round at $22, Ian Kinsler-11th Round at $19, Curtis Granderson 15 round at $19, and Mike Napoli 16th round at $12….Thanks!

Bill,

Not really sure why we’re dealing with both rounds and dollar values here but if I had to pick one I’d lean towards Granderson. A lot of excellent options though, particularly Kinsler and Napoli…a strong case could be made for either one of those guys.

Zach

Hi all, a bunch of replies specific to questions about the projections themselves…

@Rob and Horatio – I will restore the league column and exact date of birth.

@BDH – CG’s are not included and won’t be. But, we can safely project that Halladay will get a lot and most other pitchers will hardly get any. :-)

@Brad – you are correct on the typo, nice catch! The singles component of the formula should indeed by (1B*0.2)

@Ed Frischer – Wins and Losses don’t add up but then again those are somewhat pie-in-the-sky anyway since they don’t really correlate well with any other indicator, like RBI’s do with XBH’s. Note also that these are “what if” projections in many cases, so if you add this up on a per-team basis you will also see more than 162 games started per team, etc. I don’t think it’s a realistic exercise to try and predict the exact breakdown of 100% of the playing time for each team; however, it is realistic to expect certain players to get a certain amount of playing time. Where that comes from, and at whose expense, we don’t know… but obviously some players on this list won’t play as much as projected. Avoiding them is as much about luck as skill or preparation. (Think Dustin Pedroia in 2010 for one recent and glaring example.)

@Glenn – I’ve been adjusting the projections based on my own expectations for playing time, along with slight tweaks to some stats based on expected improvements, etc. However, those are minimal since I don’t want to meaningfully alter the objectivity of the projections. I will include Braun’s “full season” numbers in an upcoming update.

Thanks all!
Cory

@Cory Thanks, I appreciate that along with the work you put into assembling these each year.

What’s up everyone. Need some help here. I have to keep 3 players going into this season, and I give up the round I drafted them in last year, minus 1 round. We just started the draft pick rule, so if I pick one of my keepers from last year, it’d be my 1st round, if i pick 2 from last year, it’d be my first and 2nd, etc. Here is what I have:

My 3 previous keepers were (keep 1 give up 1st round, keep 2 give up first and 2nd, etc.):
Braun
Votto
CarGon

Reyes – 4th Rd
Kemp – 5th Rd
Hosmer – 20th Rd
Pineda – 19th Rd
Lawrie – 20th Rd

Somehow, I didn’t even make the playoffs last year in a 12 team points league with Braun, Votto, CarGon, Reyes and Kemp. I’m leaning towards keeping Kemp, Braun and Hosmer or Lawrie.

Bryan,

I’d go Kemp, Braun, Lawrie. Votto is a clear-cut first rounder so it’s tough to not keep him, but it would be crazy to pass on Lawrie for a 20.

Zach

Thanks, I appreciate your help.

Actually had a little development where it looks like I’m not going to be able to keep Lawrie based on a technicality. Who would you go next? Hosmer with 20th rounder or Votto with a 2nd rounder?

Hey Guys,im in a head to head and i get to keep 2 and 2 so my 2 SP are R.Halladay and C.Kershaw and my 2 pos players are T.Tulowitzki and im M.Kemp I get the first pick in the snake draft and i dont know if i should go with T.Lincecum or a pos player like D.Pedoria,i know everone like to take SP thanks
Dennis

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