Mike’s AL Tout Recap
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***Also note that Cory has updated his composite projections (scroll down on previous post) to reflect every playing time projection, role change and injury update tweak that he could find. There have been very very minor changes to some rate stats to reflect changing roles (closer changes, lineup order, etc.) but otherwise these numbers are VERY much in line with the rate stats from the original composite projections.
It’s been a couple of down years for me in Tout since coming within a point of winning it all back in 2009. I feel I went away from getting my guys and flirting with a stars and scrubs but in the end never admitting that is my strategy since we all get dollar players and if I get one or two more dollar guys in the end game because I got one or two more players that I loved so be it. It doesn’t mean they were stars. They could be $9. Anyway, I made sure I avoided spending 30-plus dollars for any player and that I kept my starting pitching to $15 or less since the depth was very good and of course get a #1 closer in a league where Mariano is the only one you can really rely on.
The first number will be what I had budgeted and the second the actual draft day cost. I don’t feel I grossly overpaid for any player but in some cases flirted with bailing.
C: Carlos Santana (24/28) – I was pretty set on getting Carlos or Wieters even though I would have settled for Arencibia. Santana’s name came up first of the group and I wouldn’t have went to $30. With the 1B/C and enormous ceiling I love this even though Wieters went for $22 and JP for $14. No way to predict the future and they are catchers, so inflation could have been drastic with Carlos off the table.
C: Cervelli (1/1) – If he pulls off 2010 when he hit .271 and chipped in some runs and RBI I’ll take it.
1B: Hosmer (25/28) – Today on Twitter Kevin Goldstein said his ceiling is MVP. I agree. Teixeira went for $29 which was a tad lower than expected but Hosmer’s ceiling had people willing to pay.
2B: Kipnis (15/18) – I actually wanted Kelly Johnson but not at $19 so when I saw I could get Kipnis for less than Johnson I pounced. You’ll notice I am not really sticking to budget just yet, but again these are guys I wanted or were my second choice which may end up being better choices.
SS: Jeter (20/20) – I couldn’t decide if I wanted Jeter or Asdrubal more. They both ended up going for the same price and I wouldn’t have went to $22 for Jeter, so I am happy with this, but deep down I regret not getting Asdrubal, who also went for $20. Only time will tell.
3B: A-Rod (20/24) – I just can’t quit him but truth be told there were only two other guys in E5 and Moustakas that I had targeted and thought I would save some money, but in the end this is the guy I was willing to take a chance on. The price of $24 was right where I had him so in the end I spent over budget on slot, not the player.
MI: Jason Donald (1/1) – Wanted Chris Getz but he went for $3. Donald qualifies at 2B/SS/3B and is a good backup for Kipnis.
CI: Matt LaPorta (2/1) – Wanted Brandon Allen but he went for $3 which annoyed me, and then I had to shave the buck off due to lack of funds in the end game. Lottery ticket.
OF: Choo: (23/24) – I got all those big money infielders above before I had an outfielder. I was getting nervous that if I missed Choo I might have to scramble for power in the OF but then I made that call to $24 and got him. Was very relieved. I agree with Cory that he can easily return to elite level production, so this could be a value buy. By the way, how many Indians do I have?
OF: Crisp: (19/20) – Really wanted a big steals guy and he has averaged 41 over the past two years. Takes a lot off your mind to get a specialist and who knows, maybe this team hits a little and he reaps some of those rewards at other categories.
OF: Span (13/13) – Desperately wanted Lorenzo Cain here but he would have cost me at least $18 if not $20 and I just couldn’t do it. Span was best bet in the $13 range I guess. Was high on him after he showed some real numbers in 2009. He gets back to that it’s a steal.
OF: Leonys Martin (5/1) – A spot where I shaved to a dollar player due to going over budget but not over quality earlier in the draft. Just got sent down but I’m happy to have him on bench for now. Rangers OF is a DL stint waiting to happen.
UT: Kendrys Morales (9/13) – I was not going to be denied. The fact he went 2-2 on Thursday and then homered Friday probably cost me a buck or two but I think he has a huge year batting behind oh I don’t know Pujols.
SW: Jeanmar Gomez (1/1) – This swing slot is new and I didn’t really care if I went arm or bat here but decided if I can lottery ticket an arm I’ll do it. Enter Gomez who has had a big spring but still only cost a buck. Another lottery ticket in an Indians’ uniform.
Before I list who I got at pitcher my plan was again to not spend over $15 for any one starter and maybe do the same at closer. As long as I got four guys from the group below I was happy.
P: Sale (15/11) – Saved at least four bucks here. He comes with some risk but the reward can be delicious.
P: BIG ERV!!!! (15/14) – I had to have him and the price was definitely right.
P: Kuroda (15/12) – Not worried about the transition to the AL East since he brings a lot to the table. I will say I was kind of bummed I didn’t get Morrow and if he has a stellar year as I predict I’ll have nobody to blame but myself. With that said I really like my top three.
P: Ivan Nova (6/5) – I think he takes the next step. Forget about the wins. If he wins one or two games less but improves on everything else it’s a big win.
P: Andy Oliver (2/1) – Could be my first cut, could keep Jacob Turner in the minors.
P: David Robertson (5/3) – Had to save some budget here but still got the guys I wanted so can’t complain. 100 strikeouts from a MR who also will vulture wins and maybe save a few this year? Yes please.
P: Melancon (7/2) – I had Melancon going for around $4 but the recent drama with Bard kept his price down. If Bard stays a starter or gets slated for the 7th inning role then this is a steal because Bailey will get hurt.
P: Francisco Cordero (1/1) – Insurance for the guy below.
P: Sergio Santos (15/18) – Was in on Valverde, who went for $19, Nathan ($16) and Walden ($17) but they just didn’t feel right. AL-only closers are scary but if I’m going to worry about my closer and he isn’t Rivera then a guy who struck out 92 in 63 innings will do.
RV: Damon – Sign already will ya.
RV: Dice-K – Not a terrible stash and follow on my DL for the second half. Miracles do happen.
RV: Jason Frasor – Just in case on Santos.
RV: Chris Carter – I didn’t get Brandon Allen but if he struggles maybe Carter takes back his old anointed job.
Here are the full draft results from all three Tout leagues