July 2012

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, August 1

CORY’S PICKS

Britton @ Hughes – risky at home though
Peavy @ Diamond
Cobb @ Parker
Porcello @ Cook
Haren @ Darvish
McAllister @ Mendoza
Villanueva @ Beavan – most unlikely double-pitch of the night?
Lyles @ Fiers
Karstens @ Wood – might as well stay with his hot streak
Collmenter @ Fife
Worley @ Jackson
LeBlanc @ Sheets
K. Wells @ Arroyo
Westbrook @ Pomeranz
Niese @ Cain

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 31

CORY’S PICKS

Tillman @ Nova

Verlander @ Beckett

Weaver @ Holland – Holland has been very erratic, especially at home… proceed with caution

Liriano @ Blackburn – good matchup for Liriano’s ChiSox debut

Lowe @ Hochevar – play the over!

Shields @ Milone – Milone is a must-start at home

Laffey @ Vargas – Vargas is a strong home play too

Lee @ Strasburg

Nolasco @ Medlen – watch Medlen but don’t start yet

Marquis @ Bailey – Bailey better on the road, but on fire overall

Burnett @ Dempster

Keuchel @ Gallardo

Lohse @ Francis – yes, even in Coors

Miley @ Capuano

Harvey @ Lincecum

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 28-30

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

An. Sanchez @ Alvarez – Alvarez too erratic lately to trust.

Lester @ Sabathia – No way am I pitching Lester here.

B. Chen @ Millwood

Colon @ Hunter – Colon has thrived on the road (3.12 ERA) and dominated the O’s at Camden earlier this year.

Masterson @ Deduno

Humber @ Harrison

Moore @ Wilson

Kelly @ Samardzija – Kelly working on six straight quality starts and the Cubs rank dead last in the Majors in runs scored.

Billingsley @ Zito

Wandy @ Galarraga

Blanton @ Minor

Ohlendorf @ Eovaldi – Eovaldi a decent gamble in deeper leagues.

Zimmermann @ Wolf

Cueto @ Friedrich

Young @ Kennedy – Young a little risky though.

                                                                                                                                               SUNDAY

Fister @ Cecil

Blackley @ W. Chen – Blackley is on a roll.

Jimenez @ Liriano – Battle of the two most frustrating pitchers to own in all of fantasy baseball. Pass.

Hellickson @ Richards – I still don’t fully trust Richards.

Smith @ King Felix

Floyd @ Oswalt – Oswalt’s last two starts have been solid.

Doubront @ Kuroda

Richard @ Johnson – I’ll give Richard another chance, despite this being on the road.

Halladay @ Hudson

McDonald @ Harrell – Harrell 3 ER combined over his last three starts (19 IP).

Gonzalez @ Greinke

Wainwright @ Maholm – Still not ready to gamble on Maholm vs. top-tier offense.

Latos @ J. Sanchez

Kershaw @ Vogelsong

Dickey @ Saunders

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Weaver @ Feldman

M. Gonzalez @ F. Garcia

Scherzer @ Buchholz – Scherzer has a sub-3 ERA in two career starts at Fenway.

Quintana @ De Vries

Price @ Griffin – Gotta go with Griffin.

Romero @ Iwakuma – Yup, I don’t even trust Ricky Ro at Safeco.

Buehrle @ Hanson

Volquez @ Leake – I said pitch on Volquez in weekly leagues but in daily leagues this is too dangerous of a matchup.

Bedard @ Dempster – Nice matchup for Bedard.

Norris @ Estrada – I’ll pitch both but if you’re in a tight race in ERA and WHIP, feel free to ditch both.

Cahill @ Harang – Harang is hot.

Hefner @ Bumgarner

Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/30

Hey everyone,

A lot of two-start pitchers to discuss this time. I’ve picked 12 who I consider neither obvious pitches nor obvious ditches and included my analysis. Catch today’s podcast to hear what Mike and Cory have to say about these guys.

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                          Tim Lincecum  (vs. NYM, @COL)

Despite his first half struggles, I never thought I’d be ditching Tiny Tim for a two-start week. But we’re at the point now where I just don’t trust him in less than ideal matchups. After putting together two straight stellar outings, Lincecum reverted back to the erratic pitcher we’ve seen for much of this season his last time out, getting roughed up at home vs. the light-hitting Padres. Maybe he does OK at home vs. the Mets, but the @COL start could very well be a disaster. In 11 career starts at Coors Field, Lincecum sports a mediocre 4.31 ERA and 1.48 WHIP. Not to mention that he got lit up there earlier this season (2 1/3 IP, 8 H, 6 ER). Outside of NL-only leagues and very deep mixed formats, I want no part of him.

                                                                                                                                                      Ricky Romero  (@SEA, @OAK)

The matchups are very favorable but the pitcher is a mess. Maybe if Romero pitched decently in his most recent start vs. OAK I’d think about pitching him here. But he’s DTM for the time being and should not be started in any format until he shows some signs of breaking out of this funk. I have no idea what’s wrong with this guy but this is getting ridiculous. In mixed leagues, I wouldn’t blame you for cutting him outright.

                                                                                                                                                      Derek Holland  (vs. LAA, @KC)

Holland’s 4.74 ERA is far from impressive but he has recorded four quality starts in his last five outings. That said, his 5.94 home ERA is cause for concern and the Angels are a talented offense. I can see him posting a quality start @KC but the risk attached to the vs. LAA matchup is enough of a reason to play it safe and bench Holland in mixed leagues of 12 teams or fewer.

                                                                                                                                                Edinson Volquez  (@CIN, vs. NYM)

As much as Cory can’t stand Volquez, the reality is that he’s having a pretty darn good season. Walks continue to be an issue but the 8.2 K/9 rate cannot be ignored. The @CIN matchup is scary considering that Great American Ballpark is always a tough place to pitch and Volquez has been a lot better at home than on the road. But even away from Petco, Edinson sports a respectable 3.96 ERA. Not to mention that he’s hot, having allowed 3 ER or less in each of his last six starts. In 12-team mixed leagues, I’ll roll the dice and pitch him.

Jose Quintana  (@MIN, vs. LAA)

After kicking off his big league career in dominant fashion, Quintana has come back down to earth a bit, allowing at least 4 ER in three of his last five starts. That said, he allowed just 1 ER combined in the other two outings. Coming off a mediocre start vs. MIN, I expect him to do a lot better in his rematch with the Twins, an offense that is nothing more than middle of the pack in the AL. the vs. LAA matchup is challenging but Quintana has already pitched exceptionally well vs. TEX and then @BOS, so he’s shown that he can handle the stronger lineups. Pitch!

                                                                                                                                                      Ricky Nolasco  (@ATL, @WAS)

What’s happened to this guy? The former 411 darling has been a colossal disappointment  this year after being a colossal disappointment last year, and the year before that! And it’s gotten even uglier in 2012. The strikeout rate is way down, the ERA is up and the WHIP is mediocre. Sure, he might give you a quality start, but he’s also very prone to the disaster outing, and since he’s no longer a big strikeout pitcher, there’s little reason to play him in all but the easiest of matchups. These matchups aren’t that easy, so I’m ditching.

                                                                                                                                                     Aaron Harang  (vs. ARI, vs. CHC)

While Harang’s numbers don’t exactly jump off the page, the veteran righty is enjoying a solid season in L.A. Yeah, he’s no longer a dominant ace, but he has emerged as a decent spot starter in mixed leagues for ERA and strikeout help. Harang has gotten off to a very strong second half, going 1-0 with a 2.79 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in three starts since the All-Star break The D-Backs are a poor hitting team on the road and the Cubs are a poor hitting team in general. Pitch.

                                                                                                                                                          Bud Norris  (@MIL, @ATL)

I expected a lot more from Norris this season and there’s no way around the fact that he has not pitched well. But keep in mind that his current 5.05 ERA is skewed by two starts in which he allowed a combined 18 runs over six innings. On the brighter side, he’s struck out more than a batter per inning for the season. But the main reason why I’d bench Norris for next week has to do with his Home/Road splits and his 7.46 road ERA and 1.75 road WHIP. The Brewers and Braves both have some dangerous hitters, so I’m thinking that this could get ugly. Ditch.

Mike Leake  (vs. SD, vs. PIT)

Leake has lowered his ERA by close to a full run since mid-June, during which time he’s allowed 2 ER or less in six of his seven starts. His 5.40 home ERA is the only factor that would make me think twice about starting Leake next week, but ultimately I’d take the plunge. The Pirates and Padres rank 22nd and 28th respectively in the Majors in runs scored. Pitch.

                                                                                                                                                     Carlos Zambrano  (@ATL, @WAS)

With just two quality starts in his last eight outings and an astronomical 5.2 BB/9 rate for the year, I’ve completely lost all faith in Big Z regardless of the matchup. Zambrano’s early-season dominance was fun while it lasted, but he’s now back to his old inconsistent ways and is simply not worth the grief. Ditch.

                                                                                                                                                           A.J. Griffin  (vs. TB, vs. TOR)

The matchups aren’t great but it’s hard to bet against a guy who has opened his big league career with six straight quality starts and a 29-to-8 K/BB ratio. He’s bound to hit a rough stretch eventually, but I’ll gamble on him keeping the magic going for a little longer. Pitch.

                                                                                                                                                     Marco Estrada  (vs. HOU, @STL)

The 10.0 K/9 rate is nice and the 1.9 BB/9 rate is even nicer. But the 15 homers allowed in only 67 2/3 innings is worrisome and the @STL start could ruin whatever positive vibes come from the start at home vs. the Astros. I’ll take the conservative route and say ditch.

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 27

CORY’S PICKS

Cook @ Hughes – Cook has 3 K’s in 36.0 IP… recipe for disaster

Parker @ Britton

Porcello @ Villanueva

Sale @ Darvish

Tomlin @ Diamond

Cobb @ Haren – Haren looked 100% better last time out

Guthrie @ Beavan – Beavan worth a look in deep/AL-only leagues

Lynn @ Wood

K. Wells @ Zambrano

Hamels @ Sheets

Karstens @ Lyles – yes, that is a “pitch” on Karstens

Detwiler @ Fiers

Arroyo @ Pomeranz

Niese @ Collmenter

TBD (LAD) @ Cain

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 26

CORY’S PICKS

Shields @ Tillman – Rays struggle vs. RHP

Milone @ Laffey – still not sure I trust Milone on the road vs. a good offense

Verlander @ McAllister

Mendoza @ Vargas

Capuano @ Westbrook – Dodgers are building a real offense but Westbrook is having a good year

Burnett @ Keuchel

Jackson @ Gallardo

Harvey @ Miley – sit out Harvey’s MLB debut in tough environment

 

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 25

CORY’S PICKS

Blackburn @ Peavy
Hochevar @ Weaver
Nova @ Iwakuma
Scherzer @ Lowe
Price @ M. Gonzalez – Gonzalez has been solid and Tampa struggles vs. righties
Griffin @ Romero – have to trust A.J. after his outstanding work so far
Beckett @ Holland – play it safe and ditch Dutch
Strasburg @ Hefner
Dempster @ Correia - assuming Dempster makes the start…
Hanson @ Nolasco – Nolasco DTM
Estrada @ Worley – Worley struggles at home and 2 blowups in last 4… playing it safe here
Marquis @ Lincecum
Bailey @ Norris – Norris excellent at home and Reds are righty-heavy…
Harang @ Lohse – roll with it
Francis @ Cahill

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 24

CORY’S PICKS

Fister @ Jimenez

Hellickson @ W. Chen

Blackley @ Cecil

Buchholz @ Lewis – Buchholz has been on a serious roll…

De Vries @ Quintana

Smith @ Richards

F. Garcia @ King Felix – M’s are last in MLB in runs at home

Maholm @ McDonald – Maholm is on a road but Pirates can score now

Greinke @ Lee – hang with ‘em (both)

Hudson @ Buehrle

Gonzalez @ Dickey – both are regressing but still deserving starts

Leake @ Harrell – Harrell worth a look for deep league gamblers

Kershaw @ Wainwright

TBD (COL) @ Saunders

Volquez @ Bumgarner

***ZACH SAYS “I’d ditch Buchholz. He was great last time out but did allow 9 ER combined over his previous two starts. For me, @TEX is an automatic ditch for non-elite starters. Also ditch Garcia. It doesn’t matter who he’s up against. I just don’t trust him. Agree on rest.”

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 21-23

Zach McAllister

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Darvish @ Big Erv – Santana too erratic to trust vs. top-tier lineup.

Sale @ Porcello

Tillman @ McAllister – McAllister 3 ER or less in each of his last six starts.

Villanueva @ Cook – Villanueva pitching well but I’m not risking it at Fenway.

Diamond @ Mendoza

Vargas @ Cobb – Vargas on a roll.

Hughes @ Parker – I’ll risk it with Parker at home.

Sheets @ Jackson (Gm 1 of doubleheader)

Delgado @ Lannan  (Gm 2 of doubleheader)

Capuano @ Batista

Cain @ Hamels

Zambrano @ Burnett – I could regret trusting Big Z though.

Gallardo @ Arroyo – Bronson has pitched well vs. MIL this year (2.51 ERA).

Garza @ Westbrook – Rolling the dice on Westbrook in mixed leagues with 12+ teams.

TBD (HOU) @ Miley

Francis @ K. Wells

                                                                                                                                               SUNDAY

Humber @ Turner

Alvarez @ Lester – Only thing preventing me from sitting Lester is that Joey Bats won’t be in the TOR lineup.

Beavan @ Moore – Fed up with Moore as well and SEA hits on the road.

Deduno @ Teaford

Britton @ Tomlin

Sabathia @ Colon – Colon too prone to disaster outings to trust here.

Harrison @ Haren – I’m sitting Haren in what would be his first start back from DL.

Eovaldi @ Niese

Fiers @ Cueto

Jurrjens @ Detwiler – I’ve lost all faith in Jurrjens after his latest start. Detwiler not a bad play in deeper formats.

Zito @ Blanton – This could be 3-2 or 9-8. In 12-team mixed leagues, I’ll pass.

An. Sanchez @ Karstens

Wood @ Lynn – I like Wood but not in love with this matchup.

Friedrich @ Ohlendorf

Lyles @ Collmenter

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Hunter @ Masterson

Doubront @ Oswalt – Disaster alert for Doubront and risk outweighs the reward with Oswalt.

Liriano @ Floyd – Although I like Liriano in a weekly league as a two-start pitcher, in a daily league I’d sit him for this one.

B. Chen @ Wilson

Kuroda @ Millwood

Wolf @ Halladay

Samardzija @ Bedard – Samardzija on fire in July. Still skeptical about Bedard.

Zimmermann @ Young

Minor @ Johnson

Latos @ Wandy – Giving both a mulligan for their most recent starts.

Billingsley @ Kelly

J. Sanchez @ Kennedy

Richard @ Vogelsong – Richard no longer just a start at home guy.

Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/23

Hey everyone,

Time for our weekly two-start pitcher notes. I’ve focused on eight guys here who aren’t either automatic pitches or automatic ditches. Well, maybe Ubaldo is an automatic ditch but I really wanted a nice round number! Be sure to catch today’s podcast as we will run through all of this on the show.

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                     Justin Masterson  (vs. BAL, @MIN)

Two of Masterson’s last three outings have been awful but I haven’t lost faith in him. His exceptional month of June (2.06 ERA  1.00 WHIP) has bought him some more time. The Orioles rank near the top of the AL in both runs and homers but Masterson has been very solid at home this year (3.54 ERA). The Twins are at best a mediocre offense. Pitch.

Francisco Liriano  (@CWS, vs. CLE)

Perhaps no starting pitcher in baseball is more frustrating to own than this guy. Walks continue to be an issue and there’s always a chance he completely blows up but I like him for this week. Liriano has notched six quality starts in his last seven outings and boasts a 9.89 K/9 rate for the season. The @CWS matchup is scary but he pitched well vs. the White Sox when he faced them last month. The Indians are no pushover either but despite their recent success, their lineup is far from elite. Liriano is a risky play but in 12-team mixed leagues I think he’s a risk worth taking. Pitch.

Ubaldo Jimenez  (vs. DET, @MIN)

Ubaldo is pretty much DTM at this point. Yeah, he might do well @MIN but the vs. DET game could be a total disaster. Unlike Liriano, the risk here outweighs the reward. In mixed leagues, he’s a ditch.

Jeff Samardzija  (@PIT, vs. STL)

Samardzija has rebounded nicely from a dreadful month of June, posting a 2.37 ERA, 1.21 WHIP and 11.37 K/9 rate through three July starts. The Pirates’ lineup is no longer one to routinely pick on but it’s not exactly an overly intimidating lineup either. The Cardinals’ offense is strong but in two starts vs. STL this year, Samardzija is 1-0 with a respectable 3.86 ERA. I’m rolling the dice and saying pitch.

Wei-Yin Chen  (vs. TB, vs. OAK)

Pitching Chen is far from a no-brainer as he has just four quality starts in his last eight outings, but I’ll give him a shot. The Rays are middle of the pack in the AL in runs and homers and rank near the bottom of the Junior Circuit in AVG. The A’s rank dead last in the AL in both runs and AVG. Plus, Chen is 4-2 with a 3.32 ERA in nine home starts this year. Pitch.

Jose Quintana  (vs. MIN, @TEX)

I don’t care how well Quintana pitched at home vs. the Rangers a couple weeks ago or how well he pitched at Fenway Park on Thursday night. @TEX is an automatic ditch for all mid-tier starters and that in itself is enough of a reason why Quintana should be benched next week.

Clayton Richard  (@SF, @MIA)

Richard is no longer a pitch at home but sit on the road guy. Over his last five road starts, he’s 3-2 with a 1.43 ERA and 0.85 WHIP. The Giants rank next to last in the NL in runs scored at home and the Marlins are nothing more than a mid-level offense. I’m pitching Richard without hesitation.

Erik Bedard  (vs. CHC, @HOU)

The matchups are very favorable and Bedard is coming off an impressive outing at Coors, but I’ve lost all trust in him for the time being. The WHIP is horrible, the ERA is mediocre and he’s pitched to a 6.37 ERA since the beginning of June. In NL-only leagues and very deep mixed formats, I might trot Bedard out there. But in 12-team mixed leagues, I’m ditching.

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