Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, October 3 (The Finale)

FANTASY 411 SEASON RECAP CENTRAL

ZACH’S PICKS

Dempster @ Griffin – Griffin a category-based decision. Is the ERA/WHIP risk worth it?

Weaver @ Beavan – Beavan at home not a bad gamble if chasing counting stats.

Matsuzaka @ Kuroda

Floyd @ Huff – I really had high hopes for Floyd this year. Oh well.

Diamond @ Morrow – Too tough of a matchup for the inconsistent Diamond.

Tillman @ Hellickson – Tillman is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA through four September starts.

Marte @ Mendoza

Sheets @ Burnett - Nice matchup for Sheets in his final MLB start.

Lee @ Jackson

E. Gonzalez @ Wood – Wood a decent NL-only option.

Hefner @ Buehrle - Fun fact: Hefner’s last two starts are mirror images of each other. 7 IP, 0 ER and 0 IP, 7 ER

Francis @ Kennedy

Vogelsong @ Kershaw

Werner @ Stinson

Bailey @ Miller – Tough road matchup for Homer, but how can you ditch a guy who’s coming off a no-no? Taking the conservative route on Miller. Reds still have something to play for.

18 Comments

Zach,
Thank you so much for all the great work that you do. I too went home to begin my fast, but would totally support another end of year wrap party in your honor…Drinks on me…just say the word!

-J (from BG)

Can only start two more pitchers this week (H2H) due to innings limits. Need to win K’s (only category that matters). Which two do you start?

Pitcher / Day / K/9 (last 30) / Opp

Scherzer / 10.29 / at KC
Shields / 10.13 / Bal
Hanson / 9.67 / at Pit
Norris / 9.00 / at Chi
Kuroda / 8.59 / Bos
Hellickson / 8.54 / Bal
Vogelsong / 8.37 / at LAD
Bailey / 8.10 / at StL
Zito / 6.98 / at LAD
Peavy / 6.57 / Cle
Buehrle / 6.56 / NYM
Iwakuma / 6.44 / LAA
Guthrie / 4.50 / Det
Carpenter / 4.09 / Cin

Thanks!

jaynew,

Scherzer and Shields. Fairly straightforward I think. I like Norris’ K potential but, on the road, he’s liable to get bounced from the game in the second inning!

Zach

thanks for all your help this season.

Hey Zach,

Felix did kill me last night. Likely leaves me in 2nd for the season but I’m not going down without a fight. I’m down 3 pts behind and need to gamble. I have 4 innings left, down 2 saves, virtually tied in WHIP and ERA although technically down by thousands of a point in both without a fear of losing more pts if I have a blowup game. I am tied in Ks right now as well as tied with 2 others in wins. If I can get 2 Wins I’ll catch the player that is in first place so I’d love to gamble and chase wins.

I have 4 pitchers tonight. Norris, Haren, Jenkins and Volstad. All pitching against bottom tier teams (Cubs, Sea, Min, Hou). Tomorrow I have 3 pitchers Burnett, Mendoza, and Dice-K (maybe the Atlanta TBD pitcher if they announce him soon).

Tough call for me on trying to catch saves. The player ahead of me has Johnson and that is it, I have Pap, Romo, and Motte. If I throw just closers tonight I’d have a long shot chance at catching him tomorrow. I like my pitchers tonight more than tomorrow but either way I’d only have a shot a 3 wins since Volstad is going against Norris tonight.

Let me know your thoughts, either way is a gamble but this one has me stumped.

Thanks again!
-Eric

Eric,

I think I’d go all out tonight. I agree that I prefer those pitchers to the guys for tomorrow and since it sounds like you have a path to winning even if you don’t make up ground in ERA/WHIP, I think chasing K’s and wins tonight is your best bet. I like the idea of chasing wins a bit more than chasing saves since you have no idea if your closer will even enter the game.

Zach

Zach;
Thanks for all the help this year!!
Can’t wait to bug you again, next year!!
the “other” Rich D.

Wow what a season. Roto Keeper wrapped up weeks ago, and H2H looking real good now up 7-1 entering tonight. But you know what H2H’s like, it’s still aint over till its over :) . So…a couple a questions:

1. Would you bench my relievers (Cishek, Jansen, Holland)? I’m up .8 in ERA and .06 in WHIP, and have a very healthy 28K lead. Leading by 2 W’s and behind by 2 SV’s so my thinking was play it safe and avoid a reliever blowup, as im unlikely to catch him in SV’s anyway without Kenley closing.

2. Bench some AVG risk hitters? im leading by .02 in AVG, Steals are tied, Ribbies are tied, 8 more homers than him and 12 more runs. My thinking was I could bench some AVG risk guys like Machado and Freeman to ensure my win in the AVG cat, wouldn’t have a replacement though as no moves left so could lose out on some counting stats.

One more night and hopefully the prize is mine!

Thanks

BB

BB,

Yeah, I’m dealing with similar issues in one of my leagues…in first by a half point and giving myself a headache trying to figure out which pitching strategy to use! I think in your case it probably makes sense to bench all those guys but a lot also depends on what your opponent is doing with his lineup today.

Zach

Oh and any chance of updating the POD starters for today? About half of them have changed :) , including Miller taking Wainwrights spot. Wanna see if any of them are worth taking as am thinking of doing a Cory style blowout in my other league for fun. :)

BB,

Working on that now!

Zach

ZACH AND THE 411 CREW,
Mate it has been an awesome year. Please give a big thanks to Corey and Mike also for all your help this year. I came #1 in the 12 team vanilla roto mixed, #1 in my 15 team Head to head mixed and #1 in what I call my Allstar league (due to us throwing it together at the last minute, more for fun than anything else) 6 team Head to head mixed.

Have some hard decisions about my keepers tho, the hardest being which four to keep in the 12 team roto league–Braun, Harper, Trout, Stanton and McClutch! A great problem to have.

Cheers again to you and all the 411 family,

G

G,

Thanks for the kind words. Glad we played a role in your fantasy success! Wow, that is a tough keeper decision. Braun, Trout and McCutch are definites in my opinion. And I might try to package Harper and Stanton in a trade to get an upgrade…Miggy? That would be outstanding!

Zach

No off season trades unfortunately. Thought of that kind of trade during the season, but decided a flag on top of the mask would be better. Plus league rules would have forced me to choose between either miggy or Braun as you can only keep one player from the first two rounds. Let cory and mike know the 411 philosophy of strong closers is very sound, my three firsts are proof of it.

Flags fly forever mate!

G

Hey Goose, I did it! :) Won it 8-2 in the end, though in reality it was much closer than that. Cano carried my team and my starters did a great job (Iwakuma’s 2 PoD starts were golddust!). Coupled with my Roto league which I’ve been leading all year, it’s been a great, great year. And I even have some good keepers left over such as Butler ($7), Craig ($3), Medlen ($6), E42! (($1!), and even Altuve ($3) and Pineda ($0). Guess that proves Cory’s theory correct too, if you win your league odds are you’ll have some great keepers :) .

Big thanks to the 411 but to you in particular Zach! No way would I have had close to the year I did without your help, im sure you must get satisfaction from knowing 411 fans won because of your advice.

What a year, I’ll be sure to be back in the offseason/next year to discuss keeper questions ahead of next year! It never stops does it :)

P.S How did you do in your leagues this year, any ones you’re celebrating? Would be cool to even see the 411 guys results up on the blog maybe.

Great job guys, cheers and here’s to a great exciting postseason.

BB,

Excellent news! And great job posting on the blog this season. All of your questions were top-notch and some of the decisions you had to make drove me crazy too.

It was an OK fantasy season for me. Won one of my five leagues in a monumental comeback. Trailed the first place team by about 20 points as recently as mid-August and ended up winning by a half of a point. If it weren’t for E-Jax’s W and Viciedo’s HR on Wednesday, I would’ve came in second. Finished 10th out of 15 in Tout but it was my rookie year. I’m banking on a top-5 finish next season.

Zach

Dear ALL 411 Team

Thanks for a great season of advice….
For me it was an awesome year!!!! Thanks for all your help from the blog, Podcast and twitter!!!!
MF

Thanks for the kudos, MF. Glad we were able to help you out.

Zach

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