Zach’s Musings (11/26)

THANKS FROM THE 411

Hey everyone,

Not a whole lot has happened since my last post but things are sure to get crazy soon with the Winter Meetings only a week away. Here are a few signings from the past 10 days that carry some fantasy relevance.

Hiroki Kuroda re-signs with Yankees for 1 yr/$15 million

I have to admit that I was skeptical that Kuroda would be able to perform as well as he did in the NL West in the hard-hitting AL East. Early on it looked like he was destined for the same fate as Javier Vazquez and the long list of quality NL starting pitchers who came to the Yankees and crumbled. Heading into his May 27th start at Oakland, Kuroda’s ERA was a mediocre 4.56. But then it all turned around. Kuroda was outstanding in the second half (8-4, 3.14 ERA) and dominant in the postseason. Through five big league seasons, Kuroda has yet to post an ERA above 3.76 or a WHIP greater than 1.22. And he’s proven that he can pitch in New York. He’s about as consistent as they come. Draft him as your #2 SP in mixed leagues and be glad you did. His good but not great K rate is the only thing holding him back from ace status.

Evan Longoria signs 6 yr/$100 million extension with Rays

I was a bit surprised by this as Longo was already signed through 2016 and he has dealt with injuries over the past couple of seasons. But you can’t fault the Rays for wanting to make sure that their star third baseman will remain with the team through the end of his career. Longoria remains a clear-cut top-5 3B heading into 2013 (we have him at #4 on our preliminary rankings) but the fact that he’s missed a combined 117 games since the start of the 2011 campaign will scare some owners off. He could very well fall to the late second or even early third round this spring, which would be a steal considering that he’s a first round talent.

Jeremy Guthrie re-signs with Royals for 3 yrs/$25 million

This seems like a lot of money to commit to a pitcher with such a limited amount of upside, but the Royals were obviously desperate for rotation help and figured that Guthrie, who was brilliant following his mid-season trade to Kansas City (3.16 ERA, 1.13 WHIP in 14 starts) would slot in nicely behind Big Erv. Guthrie put together a number of solid seasons while with the Orioles but he doesn’t strike anyone out and when he’s bad, he’s very bad. I consider him nothing more than a Pitch or Ditch option in mixed leagues. He does carry some value in AL-only leagues as an innings eater who is likely to finish the year with an ERA around 4.00.

Jonny Gomes signs with Red Sox for 2 yrs/$10 million

With David Ortiz locked into the DH spot, Boston will use the defensively challenged Gomes in the outfield, and it remains to be seen how the Red Sox will juggle their outfield. I wouldn’t be surprised if they acquire an additional outfielder via free agency or trade. But Gomes’ contract terms suggest that he should get a healthy dose of at-bats. 18 homers and a .868 OPS as a part-timer for the A’s last year is nothing to laugh at, and I actually like Gomes a lot as an under the radar power source, mainly in AL-only leagues.

Feel free to continue posting your questions/comments here and I’ll get back to you as soon as I can.

-Zach

4 Comments

This may have happened after your post but what do you think if the Reds signing Broxton for three years? I always felt he had a lot of upside when he was with the Dodgers but he has never been the same since his post season meltdowns against the Phillies.

DB,

Yeah, Broxton is coming off a nice bounce back season after a forgettable 2011 campaign, though his K rate did see a decline. I do think that he’ll close, especially considering the big contract, BUT it’s always possible that the Reds could stick with Chapman. It doesn’t sound like that’s the case but just because of the chance of that happening, Broxton’s value takes a small hit. Low-end #2/high-end #3 closer is how I value him.

Zach

Which side do you like?
A: Ellsbury ($16) and Bundy ($1)
B: Aramis Ramirez ($4)
5 Year Keeper league

Joe,

Ellsbury and Bundy. The fact that this is a 5-year keeper league is huge here. $16 is a very reasonable price for Ellsbury going forward, Bundy is obviously an elite prospect and Aramis will almost certainly be retired five years from now…probably even sooner.

Zach

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

Follow

Get every new post delivered to your Inbox.

Join 251 other followers

%d bloggers like this: