Composite Projections are Here!
Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 10 different providers. That’s down from a peak of 16 from two years ago, and 11 last year, but it’s still a large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season.
For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:
* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are NOT predictions, and they are not “MY” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. Feel free to disagree with any of these numbers, and adjust as you see fit, but don’t complain about it here!
* This includes all players who were projected in at least four of the 10 systems; the PRO column indicates how many projections were averaged for each player. Obviously those with fewer projections are more speculative and should be taken with appropriate grains of salt.
* The POS column is based on standard position eligibility rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position at which the player appeared the most if he played less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.
* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 18… free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns.
* These are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.
* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead they are calculated using the “Padden formula” (see links below for more on this), but with a few of the weightings slightly adjusted to improve the correlation with last year’s actual results:
This formula generally correlates very well with “actual” RBI’s, but should be adjusted up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than the leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.
* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.
* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for who will actually be the closer for any given team, such as the Cubs, Detroit, Houston, etc. Saves are more about opportunity than performance, so adjust as you see fit.
Here are some older blog posts that explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:
I’ll be posting an updated version of this in a few weeks, with some of these adjustments made… let me know what might be helpful to add?