Composite Projections are Here!

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Oakland Athletics

Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 10 different providers. That’s down from a peak of 16 from two years ago, and 11 last year, but it’s still a large sampling of what various systems expect for this upcoming season.

 2013_composite_projections_021913

For the uninitiated, a few helpful notes to get you started:

* First and most importantly, keep in mind that these are NOT predictions, and they are not “MY” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. Feel free to disagree with any of these numbers, and adjust as you see fit, but don’t complain about it here!

* This includes all players who were projected in at least four of the 10 systems; the PRO column indicates how many projections were averaged for each player. Obviously those with fewer projections are more speculative and should be taken with appropriate grains of salt.

* The POS column is based on standard position eligibility rules: any position at which the player appeared in 20 or more games in the previous season, or the position at which the player appeared the most if he played less than 20 games at any one position. Players who appeared only in the minors last season are eligible only at the single position where they played the most games.

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 18… free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns.

* These are unadjusted for playing time, so when you see some A-ball player projected for 500 at-bats, that’s a “what if” projection and not necessarily a prediction he will play that much. Adjust playing time as you see fit, and pro-rate all the other stats on the line to match.

* RBI’s are NOT based on the average projections; instead they are calculated using the “Padden formula” (see links below for more on this), but with a few of the weightings slightly adjusted to improve the correlation with last year’s actual results:

RBI=(((1B*0.038)+((2B+3B)*1.17)+(HR*3.01))*0.7016).

This formula generally correlates very well with “actual” RBI’s, but should be adjusted up or down as you see fit based on lineup spot, etc. Obviously a player batting 3rd for an NL team is likely to have more RBI’s than the leadoff hitter, all other things being equal.

* Runs and RBI’s are NOT correlated… the average team will have RBI’s on about 94-96% of their runs scored, so the run totals may be adjusted up or down on a team-wide basis to match the projected RBI’s.

* Wins and saves are not adjusted either, so this does not necessarily reflect expectations for who will actually be the closer for any given team, such as the Cubs, Detroit, Houston, etc. Saves are more about opportunity than performance, so adjust as you see fit.

Here are some older blog posts that explain how our projections are created, and other useful information on the topic:

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2012/02/18/composite-projections-have-arrived-2/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/

I’ll be posting an updated version of this in a few weeks, with some of these adjustments made… let me know what might be helpful to add?

Thanks,

Cory

 

76 Comments

Ben Revere with under 40 SB? That’s conservative.

Yes! My favorite day leading up to the season is finally here. Feels like Christmas morning! Thanks for the all the hard work Cory, very much appreciated.

Awesome thanks! Now I can really start planning how I am gonna build my team.

When you post the updated projections in a couple of weeks, do you for see yourself adding more providers or will you just leave it at 10?

p.s. I love these composites and I don’t start my rankings until they arrive every year. Thanks for all your hard work.

I poorly worded my keeper question on the last page, sorry. 12 team 5×5 keeper, ops instead of ave. Anyone drafted in first 7 rounds are not keeper eligible. FA pickups are kept in the last round (s). Can keep four. Mike Trout in round 20 is one of my keepers. I have 3 left. My choices for those three are: Jesus Montero (8)Jordan Zimmerman (10), Jason Motte (13) Jim Johnson (23). FA pickups who would be kept in the 25th, 24th, 23rd, or 22nd round are: Brett Anderson, Rafael Soriano, and Wil Middlebrooks. With Trout entrenched as 1 keeper, who would your other 3 be? Thanks for your help.

Clay,

I’d go Soriano, Middlebrooks, Johnson.

Zach

These are always awesome – thanks Cory!

Is there any chance that you could post players’ roto dollar values, or the MLB.com pre-season fantasy ranking for the players, or something else that would make this easier to sort out into a workable draft list?

That said – allow me to join the chorus of people who love this, and who use it every year. Thank you!

Steve, I got one more today subsequent to this post and will probably add 1 or 2 more if I can. Depends what’s available. — Cory

Joy the world, composites are here! This alone makes the MLB fantasy staff more valuable than all the other analysts combined. Now, if only they’d put you guys back on TV and go back to the live Podcasts I loved so much!!!!

Thanks!! I wait all year for this. Any chance I can get a .xls version? I use an old version of excel ,,,,thx
-Tom

Tom, I’ll save the next version as .xls – Cory

Thanks Cory

So Cory,

Of these guys who do you think will vastly over-perform and under-perform these projections.

For future versions, can you add in Date of Birth as per previous years?

I was in a 10 team keeper league which is now growing to a 13 team league. We can keep up to 5 guys and what auction price they went last year is what it costs to keep the guys this year. I can pick up to 5 guys now and full auction cost or pass and once the 3 new teams select 5 players any remaining players I have I can keep (up to 5 still) at a 15% discount.

Here is my problem we have a total of 23 players for $230 for the auction (10/player)
I have Braun ($41) Bautista ($48) Gio ($15) and Wainwright ($10). If I keep all those players I’m down to $116 for 19 players. Do I leave out Bautista and take the risk at maybe getting him at 15% off. OR choose different players?

Here are my other players
Starlin Casto ($22)
Paul Goldschmidt ($10)
Matt Wieters ($10)
Victor Martinez ($5)
Martin Prado ($5)
Alejandro De Aza ($5)
Jesus Montero ($10)
Torri Hunter ($5)
Ben Revere ($5)
Danny Espinosa ($5)
Michael Cuddyer ($24)
Michael Morse ($10)
Justin Ruggiano ($5)
Chris Johnson ($5)
Jason Motte ($5)
Jeff Samardzja ($10)
Rafael Soriano ($10)
Brent Anderson ($5)
Joel Hanrahan ($10)
Edwin Jackson ($5)
Jaime Garcia ($5)
Ernesto Frieri ($5)
Bronson Arroyo ($10)

James,

My first five would be Wainwright, Goldschmidt, Wieters, V-Mart and Motte. I think Bautista is way overpriced and Braun is fair value but no bargain. But if you’re set on keeping Braun, I’d drop Wieters from the list.

Zach

Eric B. – haven’t dug that far into it yet but I seem to be getting Denard Span very late in a lot of mock drafts…

Dish – will do!

–Cory

Great as always Cory!
Any possibility you’ll divulge the projection sources? Not their actual projections of course, but just who the sources are.

I see the Cardinals are trying to teach Matt Carpenter to play 2B. If that pans out, do you think he is worthwhile in a mixed league? The guy did have 46 RBI in under 300 AB’s

Eric,

In deeper mixed leagues, I wouldn’t be adverse to taking a flier on Carpenter late. The problem (and reason why I wouldn’t be actively targeting him) is that he won’t help much in either the power or speed departments. He’s more of an AVG guy who could score a decent amount of runs with consistent playing time.

Zach

Zach,

Would you deal tim hudson and bonafacio for dan haren?

Hudson is my 5th starter but bonafacio is a bench player.

Dmenz

the owner actually canceled the offer but he sent another one so now i need to know if you would do this deal instead..sorry for the confusion.

the new deal is Hudson and T.Frazier for Haren and Moss.

Frazier is a backup player and Hudson is my 5th starter.

Dmenz.

dmenz,

Yeah, I’d do that, just on the chance that Haren bounces back. And I think a lot of sites are way too down on him. This is a guy who is one year removed from being a legit fantasy ace. Is there some injury concern? Yes. But he did make 30 starts last season, so it’s not like he’s turning into Erik Bedard!

Zach

Thoughts on Josh Rutledge this year?

Joe,

I can see a .275-15-15 season, which is valuable for an MI, but he’s being so highly touted as a “sleeper” that I’m not sure if he can be had at much of a discount. For this reason, I probably won’t be owning him.

Zach

I traded Danny Espinosa for him in my 5 year keeper, both were a dollar. Espinosa’s avg scared me away, as well as his shoulder problem.

Perfectly reasonable. I’m not a huge fan of Espinosa myself!

Zach

Who are the 10 providers that these composite rankings were calculated from?

One for Cory this preferably. Soon to be finalising my keeper contracts, and keep going back and forth over your boy E5. Definately wanna keep him but question is 2 years ($8) or 3 ($12). Im very hesitant to commit to a guy for 3 years especially to a 30yr old but could it be worth it?

Any thoughts too Zach? Love E5 but we still dont know what he’ll do for an encore, even though he should be valuable. Just a bit hesitant to go 3 years on a now 30 yr old- suprised me that!

BB,

Yeah, I’d lean towards two. To go three would mean you’re confident that in 2015 he can put up a .275-25-80 type line (worthy of $12), and I just can’t say that for sure.

Zach

Cory,
Fantastic, as usual. Could you please include DoB again as well? I find that a handy reference to include in my cheat sheets, and you were able to add it in at the time of the GxP release last year. Thank you.
– Jake

Vanilla 5×5 roto 16 team mixed 22 round 3 keepers. Snake draft; I’m 15[rnd 1],18[rnd 2],
47[rnd 3],50[rnd4]. 1 Each Pos except 4OF,1Util
My keepers could be Braun15[1],Strasburg79 [5], Freese143[9], Gordon 146[10],C.Davis16[242]
Harper19[303]. Harper is a no brainer keeper
Of current ADP top 15, 8 are keepers so pick 15 is really 23, 18 really 26 etc.The most likely mid inf. guys to fall to me in round 2 if I keep Braun are Kinsler, Ramirez, maybe Reyes, maybe Pedroia.
M1-Is Braun a keeper, worth that spot
2- Should I go best player in round 2 eg Upton, Heyward or go w 2B or SS given dearth there
3-Is Davis too much value to pass up?

Al,

Even though it’s for a first rounder, I’d still keep Braun, and the decision is made easier by the fact that you’re picking so late in the round. So my three would be Braun, Strasburg, Harper. As for Round 2 strategy, it really depends on who’s available but I do tend to pay attention to position scarcity when the decision is close (call it a tiebreaker). On the other hand, don’t get too obsessed with it to the point where you’re passing on the better overall player.

Zach

Any chance for Holds projections? Does anyone even try to project holds? My formulas only work correctly with all my league’s stats and it’s a pain trying to estimate them on my own.

Luke,

I have no idea but then again that’s why I don’t play in leagues that use holds:-) The top middle relievers generally get the most holds, so in trying to predict holds, I’d concentrate on skill (ERA/WHIP/K rate etc.) and the holds will follow.

Zach

Will I be losing out by trading my $12 Carlos Santana and $2 Alex Gordon for $22 Dustin Pedroia and $1 Jason Motte in my 10 team keeper? My biggest goal is to find a top 2B and I am not so sad in losing Gordon because I have Stanton, Heyward and Jennings as keeper OF’s already. Plus I traded for Salvador Perez during the offseason, so I have a starter to replace Santana

Joe,

A totally fair trade in my opinion. To me, the Santana to Pedroia swap is a wash at those prices (maybe slight edge to Santana) but I’d definitely take Motte over Gordon.

Zach

Howdy Gents. Quick keeper question. NL only 4×4 9 team keeper league with two catcher spots. I have Yasmani Grandal. I can keep him this year and next year for $1. After that it ups by $5. In our league we have no bench and suspended players basically just burn a roster spot until they’re back. So, if I keep him, I lose 50 games of catcher production. Is it worth it? I’m leaning towards yes because the replacement catcher I could pick up will likely do in a full season what Grandal will do in 112 games. Thoughts?

BP,

Yeah, in a non-mixed league, the production of a waiver wire catcher will be so minimal that holding onto Grandal at that price tag ($1 for next year too!) will be worthwhile.

Zach

@Bertil – no. Some of these projections are for-pay, so out of respect to those providers, I will not reveal who they are.

Hey I need some fantasy advice. I play in a points league with an outfield of Braun, Stanton and Rios with Werth and Gardner on the bench. The owner of Granderson has made him available and I wanted to know if trading Rios for Granderson and playing Gardner until Granderson comes back would be a good idea.

Mark,

I honestly wouldn’t do it. I just think that the upgrade from Rios to Granderson isn’t big enough to warrant this. Gardner is no sure thing coming off that injury, Granderson, despite his home runs, has the potential to once again be an AVG killer, and you’d only be getting 3/4 of a season out of him anyway. Pass.

Zach

With the projections you compiled, do you see any big disagreements where one service has a guy doing much better than the others?

12 team standard 5×5 keeper league, can keep up to 5. Have Zimmerman, Castro, Cespedes, Butler and Molina right now as my top options. Could possibly get Kinsler and e5 for one of the top 3. Would you make that move and would you be ok trading any of those 3 for that pair and then throw Molina or Butler back? Thanks.

Jim,

Even though you would in effect be trading Butler AND Molina for Kinsler and E5, I’ll endorse that trade. The 1B position is fairly deep this year and Yadier is coming off a career season which he will be hard pressed to duplicate in 2013.

Zach

12 tm pts league. Would you move Cueto $11 for Darvish $38 & Craig $5? Or Cueto for Greinke $41 and Zobrist $24?
Thanks for the help as always.

Steve,

Pass on both. Greinke and Darvish are too pricey. You’re taking on way too much salary here. However, I would do Cueto for Craig straight up or Cueto for Zobrist in a one for one, though I doubt the other owner would agree to that.

Zach

I may have missed it but don’t recall seeing a “yay” or “nay” on adding DoB to the data. Would that be possible? Thank you.

I’ll mention it to Cory.

Zach

Thanks Zach. Our league values SP very high. I would be the one that wouldn’t want to do the trades 1 for 1. Greinke and Darvish are pricey, but the top 4-5 SPs available in our draft will go for $50+. There is probably a $5 savings on each over what they would be drafted for. Cueto would go for $35+. I failed to mention our cap is $280 instead of $260. Do any of these points change your mind?

Steve,

Well, if elite SPs do really go for 50 bucks, I guess the Darvish/Craig deal isn’t a bad one. I prefer that to Greinke/Zobrist.

Zach

Hi Goose any word on any openings for any of the listener leagues: Miccuchi leagues (miss that guy not working for MLB.com anymore), Cey leagues, etc? Been waiting for updates for quite a while now :) Would really like to join you guys leagues if I have the chance.

BB,

Could you send me (zach.steinhorn@mlb.com) your e-mail address please? Thanks.

Zach

Need help with my final Keeper (12 tm mixed, 8 keepers)

W.Rosario $1
B.Garner $1
M.Cabrera $1
A.Jackson $5

Please comment on choice and rank.

Thanks

Kevin,

All great options but I’d take Rosario in a close call over Melky. We’re just not sure as to the extent that PEDs played a role in Melky’s success last year. He’s still a top-30 OF but I just don’t consider him to be elite. I’m very high on Rosario coming off his outstanding 2012 season. How many rookie catchers can hit 28 homers with a solid AVG? Third and fourth would be Jackson and Gardner.

Zach

Hi guys
Standard 5×5 roto, during several mock drafts I am usually faced with choosing between aT least 2 of these pitchers in various ( which is why there is an obvious gap between some of them ) rounds. Can you plse rank them best to worst for me?
Wainwright, Greinke, Scherzer, Peavy, Sale, samardzija, shields, medlen, CJ Wilson, Matt Harvey, Estrada , Burnett & Minor. I really need to prioritize them so I know what I’m doing on draft day!
Thank you!

Jim,

That’s a ton to rank! My top 6, in order, would be Wainwright, Greinke, Shields, Scherzer, Medlen, Peavy.

Zach

Zach,

So after several trades and waiver pickups i was wondering if you could evaluate my team. This is a 10 team 5×5 standard roto with 2 catchers and 5 outfielders 1MI and 1 CI.

C- Avila, Pierzynski
1B-Goldschmidt
2B-Weeks
3B-Zimmerman
SS-Rollins
MI-Rutledge
CI-Konerko
OF-Trout,McCutchen,Cargo,J.Upton,Harper
UT-Jennings

B-McCann,Frazier,A.Escobar,Cuddyer

SP-Weaver,Gallardo,Scherzer,Haren,Estrada,Garza
RP-Holland,Street,Madson,k.Jansen,Frieri

Im pretty happy heading into the season with this team, I think I have pretty good balance across the board. I am a little on the fence about the end of my rotation with Garza hurt and Estrada not proven but i figure for a 5th starter either of them would be servicable.Also Andrelton Simmons is available on the wire and I’m wondering if maybe he has the higher upside of he and Escobar. What are your thoughts?

Dmenz

Dmenz,

First off, I have no idea how you were able to get that outfield. Second of all, I really don’t see any weaknesses and would sit tight with Escobar. Too early to start cutting guys you just drafted.

Zach

Oops
Plse tell me where Matt Moore fits on list I gave, (2 posts above)

I’d put Moore at 7, right behind Peavy.

Thx guys, love the projections. Quick keeper question. 14 team head to head categories league, keep 5. Down to my last keeper pick. Rosario (c) or Medlen (Sp)… C is thin and I love Rosario’s proj at that pos. However, Medlen was lights out last season and a 3 era and 1.09 whip would be gravy. Do I lock up my C, or try to get a solid sp? Already keeping (Trout, J Upton, A Craig, Matt Cain)

Daryl,

Rosario. When it’s close I always go with the bat, and there are enough question marks surrounding Medlen (what will he do for an encore?) to push me towards the 25 HR catcher.

Zach

Hi, guys–
Is Adam Dunn worth keeping in a 12 team mixed league where OBP (not average) matters? ESPN has him around 32nd in the 1B rankings (must be because of average) but his projected HR and RBI numbers (and runs to a lesser extent) are right up there with some of the top options at the position. I feel with power at such a premium these days he is a worthwhile gamble as my fifth keeper (it’s a five keeper league–my others are Braun, Encarnacion, Dickey and King Felix). What are your thoughts? Thanks!
–Chris S.

Chris,

Dunn’s simply not a fifth round player in my mind, even with OBP replacing AVG. I have a feeling you have better options. The OBP will still be sub-par if he bats near .200 again, and can we really be sure he’ll hit 40 HRs again? Maybe he’ll turn back into Adam Dunn version 2011. Too risky of a keeper, particularly in a league where there are no round values attached.to keepers.

Zach

Would you rather have Hamels and Wieters or Gallardo and C. Santana in a Head to Head points league?

Nick,

Hamels and Wieters, without question. Hamels is an upgrade over Gallardo and Santana to Wieters is at worst a wash. I actually consider it an upgrade but that one is debatable. The SP comparison is not.

Zach

Would Nelson Cruz be a good 3rd or 4th round pick or should I look later?

Robnoxious,

You’re not giving me enough context here but generally speaking, in a standard 12-team mixed league, 3rd/4th round is way too early for Cruz. I can think of far safer options to draft at that stage.

Zach

This is a funny projection! I’m an Angels fan, and every single Angel offensive player is projected to do worse than last year except for Albert Pujols. This includes Mike Trout, Erick Aybar, Josh Hamilton (significantly worse; 13 home runs less), Mark Trumbo, Alberto Callaspo, Howie Kendrick, and Chris Iannetta in terms of OPS. Also, Peter Bourjos is projected to do significantly worse than his only full season in 2011. I don’t know how much of this to trust; I think there’s a conspiracy going on against Angel players. Well, I guess maybe it’s better to be conservative than to be liberal on projected statistics, but I can’t help but think that they’re off the mark.

Zach,

No conspiracy whatsoever:-) I mean, how can Mike Trout be any better than he was last year? As for Hamilton, there are understandable concerns (far less favorable home ballpark, new team etc.) I’m not the one making these projections, so I can’t come up with an explanation for each one of them, but Cory does use a bunch of highly reputable sources, so this is a fairly accurate indication of the feelings of the “industry.”

Zach

I may have missed them, but do you have an ETA on the revisions? Thank you.

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