Mike’s AL LABR Thoughts
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Here are the starters who broke $20:
Some real investments for guys without big track records, and the perceived gap between JV and everyone else, which is fine but I will not be dancing with these guys at these prices for the most part in Tout on 3/23. Sabathia at $22 is intriguing though ;-)
I was really curious about which pitchers would not break the $20 barrier. Those are the ones who I would like to have on my team. Here are a bunch, with some of my thoughts.
Lester $17 (I’m a believer and this could be a huge discount since he could return $25)
Kuroda $11 (For this price why not?)
Morrow $19 (shows you the power of the extra buck, meaning $20. I’ll be involved but my guess is he breaks $20 in Tout)
Brett Anderson $17 (a leap of faith here. I’m a fan but am still surprised he went this high. Let’s see what difference two weeks make)
Jarod Parker $13 (I had no guess what he would go for but was dying to know. Was hoping $9ish)
Holland $11 (Like this price, may have been a year early on him)
Dickey $18 (interesting)
Ubaldo $1 (lottery ticket)
Straily, Griffin, Nova and Archer all went for $4 (like them all and these are the right prices)
For relievers, there was not one who went for $20. Rivera went for $18 as did Nathan. For the most part, the “safe” closers fell in the $13-$18 range, which makes sense. I was more intrigued at the prices for these guys:
Frieri for $9 / Madson for $7. This shows the little faith in Madson but also the question marks surrounding Frieri. I think these are fair prices but I’d rather spend the $9 on Ernesto.
Janssen for $9 / Santos for $8. When I first saw that Santos went for $8 I was shocked, but the more I thought about it the more I liked it. Here is the only problem with the last four guys I mentioned. Spending $15-17 on two of them combined can be amazing but it could also turn you into a punter in saves even if it was unintentional. Are you better off grabbing Jim Johnson for $15 and then grabbing a bunch of high K potential save vultures for $3-5 or or are you better off going Santos and Frieri for $17 and praying? The answer isn’t as simple as you think but I will say this: punting is never the answer.
Just some analysis by position:
C– Santana $21 plus Mauer, V-Mart and Wieters $19 with A.J. at $14 set the middle tier, um, in the middle. Doumit, Salvador Perez and Montero all went for $16. If you are going to spend on a catcher, I may just go to $19 for Wieters instead of saving $3 for question marks. I do like Perez a lot though. Not saying Santana at $21 is bad, however.
1B– Pujols and Prince $34 to be expected but Butler and E5 at $27 and $29 is either a trap or right on the money. I’ll save some cash here and get Hosmer cheap at $22. I think he bounces back in a big way. Tex at $23 seems a little low.
My boy Kendrys at $17 is interesting since he’s coming off an OK year and moving to Seattle even though the fences are coming in and people are probably thinking he is now one full season removed from the big injury. Hosmer and Kendrys at 1B and CI or UT is what I had last year, as usual a year too early?
2B– Cano $35 Pedroia $29 and Kinsler $28. I love them all dearly but maybe this is the year for Beckham to bounce back and he only went for $9. I also think Kelly Johnson at $10 is a sleeper. It looks like he’ll bat second, which is nice.
SS– Speaking of sleepers in the TB middle infield, Yunel Escobar went for $9. Keep an eye on Eduardo Nunez as well. He will cost nothing ($2) and could see significant time if the old men in the Bronx stay creaky. Reyes $29, Asdrubal $22 and Andrus $21 are all very tempting though. Jeter went for $17.
3B– Miggy $40 then the field. No disrespect to Longoria $31 or Beltre $30, but I’m not touching them in an auction league. Machado, Middlebrooks and Moustakas at $16-17 also seem kind of pricey. I like Lawrie at $25. There is risk but there is also high reward. Kyle Seager went for $20 and I’m not a real fan. If he doesn’t hit for power, he could be an albatross at that price. Third base is definitely a position to watch on draft day.
OF– Trout $42, Bautista $33 and then a ton of guys in the $20’s. I’ll always feel you have to spend for OF in a non-mixed but by that I mean get multiple $20 type guys. There is nothing harder or more deflating than looking at a dead OF.
I like Granderson at $20. Even with the missed month coming, he can still earn that price. I love Ellsbury at $24 and am optimistic for Cain at $15. Problem with OF is that there are lots of man crushes since there are so many of them, which tends to actually make them go for a lot on draft day, especially if they run. Austin Jackson $27, Adam Jones $25, Cespedes $29 (interesting) and Bourn $25 rounded out this group.
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