Updated Composite Projections (3/15)

COMPLETE AL LABR AUCTION RESULTS

COMPLETE NL LABR AUCTION RESULTS

COMPLETE MIXED LABR DRAFT RESULTS

2013 LIST OF 12

CORY’S COMPOSITE PROJECTIONS

ZACH’S SLOW MOCK DRAFT RECAP

And check out David Gonos’ new e-book, 101 Fantasy Baseball Tips. You just might recognize some of these contributors!

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MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins

Zach here,

Hot off the press, attached below are Cory’s updated composite projections.

2013_composite_projections_031513

A few notes from Cory:

* Age added as of 7/1/13
* I’ve adjusted playing time throughout based on my expectations for roles, etc.
* Saves are adjusted on a per-team basis
* Runs are now based on a projection formula similar to what I use for RBI’s…
 
xR = (((1B+BB+HBP)*0.42)+((2B+SB-CS)*0.71)+(3B*1.93)+(HR*1.29))*0.6666

29 Comments

Hey Cory, I thought you we’re gonna put this in .xls :-) …. thanks Tom

Argh! Sorry about that Tom… but, if you can open it at all you can do a “save as” and convert it to .xls – let me know? Thanks, Cory

Help 411 Crew,
15 team, mixed league roto vanilla. Four keepers only, so I need to drop one of these four but thinking this is the best order, pick one keep Braun, pick eight Harper, pick fifteen Trout , pick twenty five Stanton and give up McCutchen who would have been pick nine! We aren’t able to package any trades before the draft on Friday so that is off the table. To make matters worse I won’t be available for the live draft so I lose my bonus of having the picks on the turn after winning the league last year. Brutal!

Help me 411 Crew, you are me only hope!

G

G,

Wow, that is brutal. You know what? I think I’d keep McCutchen over Harper. At least I’d rather have Cutch this year at the slight discount, and I’d roll the dice that he puts up the better numbers over the next few years. If you really want Harper back, you might be able to get him with your second round pick. The bottom line though is that there really isn’t any great solution here. Another option would be to keep Cutch over Braun, but to me, Braun is at worst the #2 overall player in fantasy, even factoring in the whole PED situation.

Zach

Not sure the 411 team can answer this (but if they can then great).. so I would like to hear from the listeners too.
.
What is the best draft day software for a auction league (8 team AL only if that matters)
.
Last year I used rotowire and this year I wanted to use bloomberg but it looks like bloomberg will just have player rankings.
.
Any suggestions? Any suggestions from teams that won using it?

Luke,

Not too familiar with the various software options, but there’s a lot of cool stuff available on mastersball.com, tools to help you both in drafts and throughout the season. It’s not free (Platinum subscription required), but it’s worth it. And then there’s the small detail that I’m on the mastersball staff:-) Seriously though, check it out.

Zach

Hey guys
Is there any concern of Braun being suspended at some point this yr for the incident in FL w PEDs. I have a 3rd pick in one of my drafts & may need to decide on taking him or not …

Jim,

I’m slightly more concerned now than I was a few days ago amidst reports that MLB is stepping up the investigation. But I’m not concerned enough to drop Braun out of the top-3. At #3, he’d be awfully tough for me to pass up. My bet is that they don’t find any further evidence, but that’s just conjecture on my part.

Zach

10 team H2H 15X15 no limit keeper – I’m over rostered by two and now need a SS since Machado moved to 3B and Profar seemingly is going back to AAA. Would you still keep Machado and/or Profar, but then who to drop,Lawrie, Morse…others? Nice problem, I know, but I still need the “Doc’s” advice…please. Thanks – RingKings
C Mike Napoli (C,1B)
1B Prince Fielder
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Miguel Cabrera
SS ———–
LF Josh Hamilton (LF,CF)
CF Mike Trout (LF,CF)
RF Giancarlo Stanton
Util Bryce Harper (LF,CF,RF)
Util Matt Holliday
BN Allen Craig (1B,LF,RF)
BN Jason Kipnis
BN Brett Lawrie (3B)
BN Michael Morse (LF,RF)
BN Manny Machado (3B)
no room Jurickson Profar (Util)

Ringkings,

That’s a pretty impossible decision, and the best solution would be to make a 2-for-1 or 3-for-1 trade in order to both open up more roster spots and upgrade your keepers. But if that’s not possible, I think I’d drop Morse (not an across the board contributor) to make room for Machado and cut bait on Profar since he might be another year away from making a significant big league contribution. Sounds crazy, I know.

Zach

Zack,
Mastersball does say the Platinum offering does have draft software. Do you know if there is a youtube video of it in action? Or who can I email there for more info?
Thanks
L

Todd Zola runs the Platinum side of the site. You can reach him at todd@mastersball.com

Zach

Any news on Eric Young, Jr? Will he get a starting job this year?

Zach,

I haven’t heard anything definitive regarding Young, but it’s hard to ignore his strong spring. The problem is that barring a Todd Helton injury, which would move Cuddyer to 1B, it looks like Young is blocked. That said, Helton isn’t exactly the model of health. I think Young is certainly worth a flier in the last few rounds of a deep mixed league. Should Car-Go miss any time, it would create another avenue for Young to get into the lineup.

Zach

Zach or cory,I don’t know whats going on with tony in the ron cey league but everyone is waiting for the draft and he is not answering e mails.We are all getting anxious as its getting late in the season.Maybe you guys can get a hold of him or zach can come back to the league like before as commish.You can e mail me at annarborrocks@yahoo.com.thanks….Steve from Ann Arbor (a listener and 411 league member from the beginning in the Gentile league,,paul c smith league and a third year cey league contender)I didnt know how to contact anyone besides here thanks………..

Check your e-mail, Steve.

Zach

It’s that time of the year again. Fantasy Baseball! I just got a trade offer the day after my league drafted in a 12 team H2H standard 5×5. He offered to give me Chase Utley and Todd Frazier for Shin-Soo Choo and Norichika Aoki. I’m a little concerned that my lineup lacks some power, but I don’t think this trade will be my answer. Here’s what my offense looks like:

C: Mike Napoli
1B: Joey Votto
2B: Dustin Pedroia
3B: Ryan Zimmerman
SS: Erick Aybar
OF: Ben Zobrist, BJ Upton, Shin-Soo Choo
Util: Norichika Aoki, Nick Markakis
BN: Adam Eaton, Kevin Youkilis

Do you think I should take this trade? If not, who should I try to target to improve my power?

Glenn

Glenn,

I don’t like that trade at all for you. Utley will always be a major injury risk and I’m just not sold on Frazier yet. A healthy Utley would probably result in a home run upgrade, but to me you’re taking all the risk here. Of the four players in this trade, Choo and Aoki are the two most dependable guys. Feel free to explore the trade market for a power upgrade, as you definitely have some speed to spare. But at the same time, don’t be afraid to simply let the first few weeks of the season play out. Maybe you’ll be able to get help off the waiver wire instead. The cost would obviously be far less!

Zach

Two different leagues trying to decide on keepers. In one I need to decide between reddick and Frazier. The other I need to decide between c.santana 4th, andrus 5th, papplebon 10th, or Frazier, d brown, or voglesong as a 23rd. If I pass on Santana and andrus I’m fairly sure I won’t get them back. It’s a dynasty lg and I can keep santana andrus & pap forever at those rounds. @ rd 11 we start to escalate rounds. Thoughts?

Jeff,

I’d have a tough time deciding between Santana and Papelbon. I always like to draft one elite closer, and 10th round is certainly excellent value for Paps. On the other hand, the dynasty league factor favors Santana, as Papelbon is getting up there in age. In the end though, I’d go with Papelbon. Santana has the higher upside and could turn out to be a solid keeper for years to come, but is 4th round really great value? It’s good value but not great value. 10th round for Papelbon is great value, even if we’re talking about the short-term (think next 2-3 years).

And I’d take Frazier over Reddick. Not a huge Frazier fan but Reddick comes with his own question marks and the position factor tilts the scales in Frazier’s favor.

Zach

Competitive 10 team H2H 15X15 keeper, must think ahead, considering Teheran off the wire, enhanced arsenal & stellar spring = “grab now”? Would have to drop Marco Estrada, Wade Miley, Jeremy Hellickson or Jarrod Parker. Looking past 2013 do you think Teheran’s upside is worth this move, if so, drop who? P.S. Thanks for the prior, and always responding. – RingKings

Ringkings,

Yeah, I’d take a flier on Teheran over Miley, who I consider to be a bust candidate. His strikeout rate is nothing special and pitching in Chase Field won’t do him any favors. Coming off last season, the chance that he declines far outweighs the chance he takes another step forward.

Zach

Hi guys.
I play in an 11 team league (long story) where we keep 4 and play with stanradr positions, MI, CI 5 outfileders but only 1 catcher. I kept Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman, Brandon Phillips and King Felix.
I have the first pick of the draft and am struggling between Kinsler, Posey, Encarnacion and Billy Butler (alternatively Matt Cain is available but based on the 411 strategy I plan to pass on him). Who would you go for?

Tim,

That’s a tough one. According to current NFBC ADP, the order goes Posey, E42, Kinsler, Butler. I’d usually lean towards Kinsler (power/speed at a thin position) but being that you’re already strong at 2B with Phillips, I think I’d go with Posey, the undisputed #1 catcher who will give you a clear edge over the rest of your league at that position.

Zach

What do you think the ceiling is on Jordan Zimmermann for future strikeout potential? I want to trade for him but I feel the strikeout totals will never surpass 170ish.

Tom,

I tend to agree but 170 is pretty darn good factoring in what he offers in the ERA/WHIP departments. The trade depends on who you’re giving up, of course, but for now I view Zim as a perfectly acceptable #2 SP or a great #3 in a standard mixed league.

Zach

Love the site/blog/videos, etc.

Which 6 do you keep in a 10 team, MLB, 4×4 (no runs, Ks) roto?
Carlos Santana $14,
Jason Kipnis $11,
Justin Upton $27,
Evan Longoria $26
Tom Wilhemsen $6,
Greg Holland $6,
Glen Perkins $6,
Grant Balfour $8

Kind of a head scratcher because we have inflation from some good keepers (Trout $4) and deflation from some bad ones (Miggy $53, Rollins $17).

long time,

I’d go with the four bats, Holland and Wilhelmsen. You’re still getting Upton and Longo at a discount.

Zach

John Benson software (found at John Benson.com) is a bit pricey, but it is VERY usable, and you can get a ton of information.

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