Mike’s AL Tout Recap
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I decided this year to not necessarily change my strategy as far as prep goes but to change my overall approach. I had no hitter budgeted for over $29 and was hoping to not even have to go that high. I also for the past few years have decided not to spend more than $19 on any pitcher, but this year I also decided to cap my closer spending at $15 and use that money elsewhere. People always ask where I get my values from and I’m honest about it. I use the LABR values. The pros to this approach are simple. First of all, I’m lazy and not conceited enough to think I have some formula that is the secret weapon to values. I don’t care how many experts you put in a room. We panic, we overvalue, we undervalue and we have favorites and players we can’t stand. With all that said, it is absolutely frightening how close the final values are in LABR and Tout. Each league is a non-keeper, there is crossover on team owners and the seasoned players are just going to have a smaller +/- threshold on spending, which leads to similar tiers. Oh, and nobody is drinking or showing off. You may be asking what would I do if LABR was ever after TOUT. The answer is I’d survive just fine, but like I said I’m lazy and not very good at math. If there is one thing I should have learned the past few years that just clicked this weekend is if I am going to use LABR values, I should lay out my “perfect” team with at least two dollars added to all players. This is something I hopefully can try in 2014 as it would help me control my budget when guys go over and is a real boon when they go under. Below is who I drafted followed by who I targeted and some notes.
C: Sal Perez $16. I got Sal Perez at $19. Wieters went out before Perez and I went to $18 and then bailed, thinking he’d keep going. Was annoyed he didn’t and that Perez ended up +$3, but in order for me to get Wieters I bet it would have cost $22 since I would have had to make him $20.
C: Austin Romine or Cervelli $1. I got Romine for $1. Lottery ticket.
1B: Eric Hosmer $22. I got Kendrys Morales for $19. This is all very confusing but hopefully I am making sense here. Joe Sheehan price enforced Hosmer to $25 and I bailed. Then I figured I’d get Swisher for less than Hosmer, which I did but I had to move him to OF which is fine. In the end, I didn’t get a guy I thought I had at $22. Instead, I got a good player for cheaper, but Morales is my 1B and I paid $2 more than I budgeted for him. I think Kendrys can have a big year. Moving along.
2B: Jason Kipnis $26. I got Kipnis for $28. Listen, other guys have favorite guys like me. Only time will tell if I overpaid but I love the potential.
SS: Eduardo Nunez $2. I got Sean Rodriguez for $1. The Jeter news made Nunez overpriced and he went for almost $10.
3B: Brett Lawrie $25. I got Brett Lawrie for $22. Word is this was a big hit on SXM and in the twitterverse. He got hurt at the right time and I may cash in big time. He should be ready for Opening Day and people were gun shy.
MI: Yunel Escobar $9. I got Kelly Johnson for $10. I actually had K-Jo down for my UT spot. Johnson was end game and I had a little money left for him. Escobar was called out much earlier and would have cost at least $11, so I bailed. Hoping I don’t regret this one. Sheehan got Escobar and we went after him for the same reasons.
CI: Kendrys Morales $17. I got Mike Olt for $3. See above on Morales. Olt needs an opportunity. Beltre and Cruz’s bodies might provide it.
OF: Ellsbury $24. I got Ellsbury for $29. Rob Leibowitz was my nemesis today and cost me money but I still got my guys. Ellsbury can earn this easily if he goes pre-injury Jacoby. I’m banking he does.
OF: Michael Saunders $16. I got Saunders for $13. Very happy with this. He is a sexy pic this year and I’m hoping I cash in.
OF: Lorenzo Cain $15. I got Lorenzo Cain for $17. I think I was a year too early on Cain. Another high ceiling guy at a possible discount.
OF: Nick Swisher for $21. See above.
U: Kelly Johnson $10. I got Giovatella for $2. End game stuff. I may cut him before he gets his pants dirty.
SW: (swing guy, can be pitcher or hitter on draft day and in season)
Jackie Bradley Jr. $1. I got Pedro Ciriaco for $2. I wimped out on Bradley and he would later go in the reserve rounds after I wimped out again.
P: Jon Lester $17. I got Morrow for $19. Lester ended up going for $20, so in the end I win because I wanted one of these two to anchor my staff and I accomplished that.
P: Jarrod Parker $13. I got Parker for $14. Very happy with my 1-2 punch.
P: Derek Holland $11. I got Holland for $11. Going back in the Dutch oven.
P: Dan Straily $4. I got Straily for $7. Bidding war with Leibowitz again but again I got my guy.
P: Pitcher X $4. I got Vance Worley for $3. I’m a Worley fan. New big park etc. I had a bunch of names on the list for this slot.
P: Pitcher Y $1. I got Dan Hultzen for $1. Could be a big score.
P: Ernesto Frieri $9. I got Tommy Hanson for $1. Long story short, I had to shave off money somewhere and middle relief was where it happened. On a sad note, I threw out Hanson while having a senior moment and crickets ensued. But for $1 who cares.
P: Sean Doolittle $3. I got Phil Coke for $2. Once Doolittle hit $4 I bailed. Good middle relief all over the wire and reserve draft.
P: Joel Hanrahan $13. I got Hanrahan for $15. Fingers crossed on this approach.
RV: Avisail Garcia. Jackie Bradley Jr. went next. Garcia is a sleeper and I wanted him.
RV: Jared Burton. Will get some saves and if Perkins falters physically or on the mound, I’m in.
RV: Stephen Pryor. See Jared Burton but put narrative in Seattle.
RV: Geovany Soto. Needed a second catcher. Last round of the reserve sounds about right.
For easy reading, here’s my complete roster:
C Perez 19
C Romine 1
1B Morales 19
2B Kipnis 28
SS S. Rodriguez 1
3B Lawrie 22
CI Olt 3
MI K. Johnson 10
OF Ellsbury 29
OF Swisher 21
OF Cain 17
OF Saunders 13
UT Giavotella 2
SW Ciriaco 2
SP Morrow 19
SP Parker 14
SP Holland 11
SP Straily 7
SP Worley 3
SP Hanson 1
SP Hultzen 1
RP Hanrahan 15
RP Coke 2
RES A. Garcia