Zach’s Mixed Tout Recap

CORY’S MIXED TOUT RECAP

MIKE’S AL TOUT RECAP

COMPLETE TOUT RESULTS

COMPLETE AL LABR AUCTION RESULTS

COMPLETE NL LABR AUCTION RESULTS

COMPLETE MIXED LABR DRAFT RESULTS

2013 LIST OF 12

CORY’S COMPOSITE PROJECTIONS

ZACH’S SLOW MOCK DRAFT RECAP

__________________________________________________________________________________________________

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Milwaukee Brewers

Heading into my second year in Mixed Tout Wars, I was determined to not make the same mistake I made in my inaugural campaign, overpaying for mid-tier talent which in turn limited me to $1 bids down the stretch. There were far too many guys on last year’s squad who I didn’t even want but was stuck with by default. I would be more patient this time around, draft a few high-end players but also wait for bargains and afford myself the opportunity to land some of my targets in the endgame. Unlike last year, when I exited the SiriusXM studios in midtown Manhattan this time around, I was happy with my roster and was actually looking forward to seeing how the season will play out. Of course, there were a few exceptions, as is always the case in any auction, but on the whole the team I ended up with looked a lot like the “ideal” group I had sketched out when doing my draft prep. Listen, I’m far from an auction veteran, but my general approach is to assign dollar values to each roster slot with certain players in mind and list a bunch of fallback options. Should the price of my top choice at a certain position exceed my expected value by more than a buck or two, I’d move on to my backup choices and use the saved money to secure an upgrade at a different position.

Alright, enough suspense. Here’s the team I ended up with. Keep in mind that this is a 15-team mixed league with OBP replacing AVG.

C  Jonathan LuCroy ($11)

I had budgeted about $12 for my #1 catcher and LuCroy was my main focus. A broken hand limited him to 96 games last year, but the Brewers’ backstop put up some nice numbers in those 96 games. At just 26 years of age, there’s still plenty of room for improvement. Would I be surprised if he makes a serious run at 20 homers to go along with a strong OBP? Absolutely not.

C  Brian McCann ($6)

McCann was not someone I had planned on drafting as I tend to shy away from players rehabbing from significant injuries, but the value here was too good to pass up. Even if he misses the entire month of April, as the latest reports suggest, five months of McCann is well worth the six bucks. I actually purchased McCann before taking LuCroy but still felt the need to go after LuCroy to stabilize my catcher duo. I had allocated $3 to my #2 catcher slot so I overspent by a little, but no big deal.

1B  Adrian Gonzalez ($28)

Exactly the price I predicted for A-Gon. Prince Fielder was my #1 target but Adrian sat at the top of my second-tier price range list. At the time, I gambled that Fielder would go for more than the $35 I set aside for him. And I was right, as Tim Heaney bought Prince for $38. The home run total was really the only disappointing part of Gonzalez’s stat line last year, but I expect a rebound in his first full season back in the familiar NL West. Even if he hits 25 homers, 100-plus RBIs, roughly 90 runs and an OBP in the .360 range are all reasonable projections.

2B  Dan Uggla  ($16)

My least favorite pick, and if I knew at the time that Jose Altuve would go for only $17, I would’ve bowed out on Uggla. But I figured that the switch to OBP neutralizes the main risk attached to Uggla, that is his batting average. In a career-worst season, the Braves’ second sacker still managed to swat 19 homers, drive in 78 and score 86 runs, so the counting stats were there. He did post a quality .348 OBP and sports a career OBP of .343. On the other hand, should he get off to a brutal start, the Braves might reduce his playing time, as his defense is dreadful. So I’m just hoping he hits well enough to avoid that scenario.

SS  Jimmy Rollins  ($15)

I honestly don’t understand the negativity surrounding J-Roll. Yeah, he’s getting up there in age and he won’t be of much use in the AVG/OBP department. But how many other shortstops can realistically turn in a 20/30 season with 90 or so runs scored? I can’t think of any. And for 15 bucks? C’mon!

3B  Aramis Ramirez  ($16)

Like McCann, A-Ram is another guy who I never expected to be on my roster. There is some age/injury risk, but there’s no denying that Ramirez is one of the more consistent hitters in the game. And I consider $16 to be excellent value.

CI  Kendrys Morales  ($11)

Continuing on the value theme, I was very surprised to land Kendrys at this price. He went 22-73 in only 134 games for the Angels last year and now with Seattle, he won’t have to deal with a platoon situation. Oh yeah, and the fences are moving in at Safeco.

MI  Jhonny Peralta  ($4)

Not much to get excited about here but I had budgeted $5 for my MI slot and Peralta was one of the players I predicted would fall in that range. I’m expecting something in between his 2011 and 2012 production. If nothing else, he provides me with some cheap power.

OF  Justin Upton  ($34)

I wasn’t going to leave that draft room without grabbing a legitimate #1 outfielder, and over the past few weeks, I had a feeling that Upton would be that guy. He played a key role in ruining my Tout season last year, but I’m willing to give him another chance. 34 bucks seemed like a fair price to me considering the costs of fellow outfielders Matt Kemp ($37), Jose Bautista ($37), Andrew McCutchen ($37), Carlos Gonzalez ($36) and Giancarlo Stanton ($34).

OF  Desmond Jennings  ($20)

Jennings was my top choice to fill my #2 OF slot, so I was thrilled to get him for a dollar less than my projected value. He needs to improve his OBP skills but at 26, the best is yet to come. He’ll provide me with tons of speed and even some pop.

OF  Jason Kubel  ($7)

He faded badly in the second half last year but seven bucks is a fairly small price to pay for 25-plus bombs and 90 RBIs. I’ll take Kubel at $7 over Andre Ethier at $12 or even Nick Markakis at $9.

OF  Denard Span  ($5)

This was towards the end of the draft and realizing that I was weak in speed, I singled out Span as the player I had to have. Luckily, I was able to snag him for $5 because I would’ve gone as high as $9 for him. I like Span a lot this year as he’ll be batting atop a loaded lineup and should score a boatload of runs, and I’m hoping that all the talk about him upping his SB attempts is more than just talk. But I wish I didn’t have to rely on him so heavily to keep me afloat in the swipes category.

OF  Ryan Ludwick  ($2)

This pick was kind of by accident, as I was convinced that someone would raise my opening bid and the last thing I needed was even more power. But as a fifth outfielder he’s fine. Are 20 homers and 80 RBIs really too much to ask?

UTIL  Cody Ross  ($4)

I had four bucks left at the time of my final turn and right after throwing out Ross’ name, I regretted not nominating Michael Brantley, who would’ve been a better fit in my already homer happy lineup. I’ll immediately look to add some more speed to my roster and will probably end up benching Ross to start the season.

SP  Adam Wainwright  ($21)

This guy is going to have a big year. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised if he takes home NL Cy Young honors. Looking at his overall 2012 numbers doesn’t tell the whole story. In 15 second half starts last year, Wainwright pitched to a 3.28 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. Entering his second season removed from Tommy John surgery, I’m expecting him to pick up right where he left off. Being that the price tags of starters like Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, David Price and Stephen Strasburg were all in the upper 20’s, I’ll gladly take Wainwright at a discount.

SP  Ian Kennedy  ($13)

This was a tad more than I had planned on paying for Kennedy but I’m very high on him as a guy who you can draft as a third or fourth starter and get back SP2 caliber production. I didn’t afford myself a ton of room for profit here but I think $13 is a fair price and I’m a sucker for the K/BB ratio. While 2011 looks like an outlier, I fully expect Kennedy to bounce back from a disappointing 2012 season that still saw him post a 1.30 WHIP to go along with 187 strikeouts.

SP  Doug Fister  ($9)

The beauty of following the “patient” auction approach is that it can lead to bargains like this one. I normally prefer a higher K option for my third starter slot but playing in a pitcher-friendly ballpark, Fister should provide me with a strong ERA and WHIP. And factoring in the stacked Tigers’ lineup, there’s plenty of wins potential as well.

SP  Ryan Vogelsong  ($6)

I wasn’t about to chase Vogelsong but I wasn’t about to shy away from him either. There are still plenty of skeptics when it comes to the 35-year-old righty, which is keeping his price down to the level where he can once again return a substantial profit.

SP  Wandy Rodriguez  ($4)

An underrated starter at a bargain basement price. I’m not too concerned about the drop in strikeouts. Maybe his 175-plus strikeout days are over, but even if he gives me 150 punchouts to go along with a solid ERA and WHIP, this will prove to be a wise investment.

SP  Felix Doubront  ($1)

A pure lottery ticket. His control needs work but I love the strikeout upside, and he’s only 25. Maybe I could’ve waited until the reserve rounds to draft him. Whatever.

RP  Joe Nathan  ($15)

I always try to draft at least one elite-level closer, and figuring that Craig Kimbrel would be too expensive, I narrowed down my choices to Jonathan Papelbon, Jason Motte or possibly Mariano Rivera. When the news broke that Motte would open the season on the DL, I narrowed my list to Papelbon or possibly Rivera. Then the bidding on Rivera got to $16 and I couldn’t quite pull the trigger. Then the bidding on Papelbon went through the roof. No way was I paying more than 20 bucks for him. So I snatched up the next best thing for what I consider to be a great price. Nathan proved last year that he’s still an elite stopper despite enduring Tommy John surgery. Yeah, he’s old, but I’m convinced that he has plenty left in the tank.

RP  Steve Cishek  ($10)

Banking on a closer with such a limited ninth inning track record is risky, but Cishek has the luxury of job security and, as he demonstrated last season, he can clearly get the job done. By drafting Cishek, I accomplished my goal of securing two closers so that I won’t need to fork over a ton of FAAB dollars early in the season on speculative saves sources.

RP  David Hernandez  ($2)

J.J. Putz has grown very fond of the DL over the past several seasons and Hernandez is one of the more dominant setup men in baseball. See where I’m going?

RESERVES

Ricky Romero – Will probably be my first cut. Sounds like he might not even make the rotation.

Franklin Gutierrez – If healthy, his decent speed could be useful.

Zack Wheeler – Expect a big league arrival sooner rather than later.

Kurt Suzuki – Will hold down the fort as my second catcher until McCann returns.

To sum everything up, while homers and RBIs will not be an issue, I’m a little short in steals and my OBP will probably be no better than middle of the pack. I’m also somewhat concerned about my team’s age, as the majority of my players are over 30. Improving my speed will be a priority in the early going and I might need to swing a power for speed trade fairly soon to avoid falling too far behind in the category. I’m pleased with my pitching staff and am eager to find out if this more balanced spending approach compared to last season will lead to a higher than 10th place finish.

All comments are welcome, but please, don’t be too harsh!

You can view the complete auction results here

Zach

30 Comments

You’re right that speed is certainly your issue. But Jennings could surprise with more steals then expected and Span may run a bunch too. My feeling is that Span is the real steal of the draft. You have great OF depth and hopefully can spin one of those for a MI guy who runs.

So outside of Altuve who do you think you regret not getting and who do you think you overpaid for?

broutman,

Yeah, I was thrilled to get Span at that price and was totally expecting to have to pay more, which is kind of why I was left with some extra money at the end (that I used to overpay for the unnecessary Ross!) I think a healthy Span could definitely steal in the neighborhood of 25. I usually like to get speed from my middle infield and the problem is that only one of my MIs runs. Aybar ($8) and Segura ($6) are two more guys who would’ve helped me more than Peralta, but who knows how much higher they would’ve gone for if I had bid them up. So as they say, hindsight is 20/20.

Outside of Uggla, by a few dollars I’d say (taking into account the OBP switch, maybe he’s more of a $12 type player), I’m fairly satisfied with the prices I paid, which is a lot different from last year, where basically half of my roster were overpays!

Zach

Thoughts of my team? 12 Team league HTH 6×6 with holds. I know starting pitching is a weak as is my power.

C: Wieters $14
C: Napoli $8
1B:Goldschmidt $22
2B:Kipnis $18
SS:Zobrist $20
3B:Lawrie $16
MI:Prado $15
CI:Moustakas $6
OF:Hamilton $25
OF:Harper $33
OF:Jennings $12
OF:C. Gomez $9

SP:Fister $9
SP:Morrow $9
SP:Estrada $5
SP:Niese $4
SP:Bailey $4
SP:A. Sanchez $2

MR:Clippard $4
MR:R. Cook $1

CL:Putz $7
CL:Motte $5
CL:Nathan $5
CL:G. Holland $3

BN:A. Soriano $3
BN:L. Cain $2
BN.M. Reynolds $1

Any comment are greatly appreciated.

Big Mike

Big Mike,

I like it! You probably could use one more 20-plus HR guy but this roster is full of excellent value picks, particularly on the pitching side.

Zach

Thats what i was thinking as well. Then i looked at Cory’s composite projections list and 7 of these guys are 20+hr and another 2 at 18hr and 19hr. All in all there’s 298 hr’s here give or take.

Zach -

Really like the sqaud you assembled this year compared with last…spilt milk and all, you really did a much better job. Feel your Rollins and Jennings gambles and logic will pay off…but the injury bug could derail some of the plans…but thats the case with all teams really. Nice job!

-BDHinDC

One question Big Z, always wondered why these expert drafts have reserve picks at the end rather than just bench players. Is there a difference?

Dan,

I think it’s just a way to keep things simple and say that you have $260 to spend on your 23 starters and then you choose your reserves at a $0 cost.

Zach

Interesting, so it is different to our standard drafts then, as we have to bid on our bench guys. Wonder why the expert leagues do things differently, do you prefer it? I guess it means you know exactly how much you need to spend to fill your whole roster, whereas we (us mere peasants ;) ) need to always save some in case our 1$ targets go for more.

Yeah, I prefer it. One less thing to think about: how much money should I save for my bench?

What are your thoughts on Eduardo Nunez?

Zach,

Well, he’ll certainly play a lot, at least in the first couple of months thanks to all the injuries in the Yankees’ infield. I like him as a cheap MI in a deep mixed league who will contribute some speed. And I think he’ll benefit from getting regular playing time as opposed to never knowing whether or not he’ll be in the lineup from one game to the next.

Zach

How do you feel on a Gyorko and Moustakas (both a dollar) for Freese ($5) and A Gordon($2) deal? I’d be getting moose and Jed. I like Gordon but I worry about freese. Plus the league is a five year keeper

Tom,

I think you’re giving up too much proven talent here, and the salary difference is negligible. And it’s not like Gordon and Freese are old men!

Zach

Zach,

Just drafted last night and i have 8 starting pitchers that I really like, but with a 1350 IP cap I probably can only start 6. While I’ll probably mix and match throughout the year depending on injuries and match-ups (outside of Waignwright of course) wondering which 6 you think are the best?

Waignwright
Fister
Beckett
J. Parker
B. Anderson
Holland
Bailey
Lynn

broutman,

Right now, I’d rank Holland and Bailey the lowest, but the great thing is that you’ll get to play the matchups and give your pitchers some time to establish a body of work. Then, you’ll have more data to work with when planning how to go forward.

Zach

I’;ve drafted Bailey too and he is strictly a road play for me until proven otherwise!

Yeah that makes sense. With Bailey and Parker maybe I’ll platoon them where Bailey pitches on the road and Parker at home.

Zach -

Ok, here is my team. 12team weekly H2H points mixed, keeper (w/max 5 per team each offseason). Start 12 bats & 9 arms each week, with 6 reserve spots.

Weekly Bat Points: 1B=1, 2B=2, 3B=3, HR=4, BB=.5, R=1, RBI=1, SB=2
Weekly Arm Points: IP=2, K=1, CG=5, W=10, Sv=8, ER= -1, BB= -.5, L= -2, HA= -.5

FYI: 58 players were kept this off-season. Afterthat, I had the 9th pick overall in the 27 Round snake draft – skipping over keeper slots obviously.

My 12 Bats:
C = Jesus Montero (SEA – 13th Rd)
1B = Joey Votto (CIN – keeper 2nd Rd)
2B = Ben Zobrist (TB – keeper 4th Rd – also qualifies as SS & OF)
3B = Evan Longoria (TB – keeper 3rd Rd)
SS = Jimmy Rollins (PHI – 5th Rd)
MI = Josh Rutledge (COL – 10th Rd – qualifies @ SS & “2B after 5 games”)
CI = Eric Hosmer (KC 7th Rd – qualifies @1B)
OF = Ryan Braun (MIL – keeper 1st Rd)
OF = Desmond Jennings (TB – 8th Rd)
OF = BJ Upton (ATL – 6th Rd)
OF = Ichiro Suzuki (NYY – 14th Rd)
DH = Dexter Fowler (COL – 11th Rd)

Reserve: Corey Hart (MIL – 24th Rd)
———————————————————————
My 9 Arms: (no special slots for RP vs SP)
Aroldis Chapman (CIN – keeper 23rd Rd)
Doug Fister (DET – 9th Rd)
Hiroki Kuroda (NYY – 12th Rd)
Derek Holland (TEX – 15th RD)
Tim Hudson (ATL – 16th Rd)
Phil Hughes (NYY – 17th Rd)
Jeremy Hellickson (TB -18th Rd)
Greg Holland (KC – 19th Rd)
Grant Balfour (OAK – 20th Rd)

Reserve: Addison Reed (CHW – 21st Rd); Rafeal Betancourt (COL – 22nd Rd); Shelby Miller (STL – 25th Rd); Dylan Bundy (BAL – 26th Rd); Kenley Jansen (LAD – 27th Rd)
————————————–
couple thoughts post draft:
1) I feel if I can ride any value from Betancourt for the weeks where I dont have enough 2 start arms, I can always drop him for future call up arm (Wheeler, Skaggs, etc) or Pitch or Ditch slot if he gets traded into setup role, etc?
2) Since its a total points wins the H2H each week, having extra closers to grab more reliable (I hope) points vs Starters is my approach. Chapman, Balfour, Holland, and Reed as solid 4 each week, with a 5th in Betancourt can let me be flexible with 6 Starters to only 4 Starters needed each week and thereby maximizing the 2 start weeks, or adding a cusion when its a week of only 1 Start arms, etc.
3) If Kenley regains the closer role, it could pay off nicely.
4) I prefer to go light on Bats bench but feel Hart is nice insurance and perhaps trade value too down the line.

What weakness or risk do you see?

I have finished top 3rd and 1st the past two regular season standings in total points, and H2H record, however lost in the playoffs both years finishing 3rd and 4th. Hoping with a late call up from Bundy, this year the regular season succes will equate to post season Yoo-hoo shower.

-BDHinDC

BDH,

Well, you certainly built a loaded bullpen. I was about to say that you could use some more K’s from your SPs but since it’s a H2H, that’s probably not as important as it would be in a roto. I do think you’re a tad light in power, with Braun really being your only 30 HR lock, that is if he doesn’t get suspended:-) Overall though, there’s certainly a lot to like about this team.

Zach

Zach-

Appreciate some thoughts on my draft. 5×5 roto 16 teamer 22 man roster
c-V.Mart [eligible]
1b- Lind, Moreland
2b- Hill
ss-A.Escobar
3b-Lawrie
u-Frazier
of-Braun, Harper, C.Davis, Bourjos, Colvin [4 play any given day]

SP- Kershaw, Strasburg, M.Moore, Lynn, A.Sanchez
RP- Perkins, Broxton, Robertson, D.Hernandez

My pitching is top notch especially if Mariano or Putz don’t last and Chapman gets jerked back to starter. Am solid in OF, midinfield , 3B, C. But 1B not so much.
Davis is 1B eligible as is Colvin and Frazier..But no real star at 1b. McLouth is only one of few reasonable full time type OF available, if I get rid of Lind or Moreland.
1- Lind looks like a new man this spring, like 2009…should I give him a re- try?
2- Moreland is improving and his glove will play, and like Lind, Colvin can hit RHP, so I can platoon w Lind and Colvin daily. Is this a viable fantasy strategy?
Can I expect Colvin to get AB [meaning Helton plays little]?

Al,

I think you summed everything up very nicely here. For a 16-teamer, that starting rotation is outstanding. You do only have one closer, and even in deep leagues like this one, I prefer to draft two capable closers, but like you said, there’s a very good chance you can net a handful (and maybe more) of saves from your setup guys. See how the first few weeks of the season goes for your offense and take it from there.

Zach

Hey Zach,
I’m in a 12 team, H2H, 12 cat (avg, runs, sb, hr, rbi, ops, era, whip, sv, K, wins, qs) league. I’m light on SP and heavy on RP:
Greinke, Morrow, Garza, and Bauer = SP
Papelbon, Motte, Rodney, Hanrahan, and Reed = RP
I was offered the following deal:
I GIVE EITHER (Papelbon, Hanrahan, or Reed)
I WOULD GET EITHER (Cahill or Vargas)
I’m not enamored with any combination. McDonald, Ryu, Masterson, Volquez, Billingsley, Richard, and Nolasco are still available so I could drop Garza or Bauer and still roll with four starters. Thoughts?
Thanks.
Rich D.

Rich,

I really don’t like that trade offer. Cahill and Vargas are not big difference makers and you’re probably better off just using the waiver wire to upgrade your rotation. I like Richard as a home play and am intrigued by Ryu. I think he might be the best long-term option but let’s see how he adjusts to MLB hitting.

Zach

I totally agree with your assessment. I’m going to stand pat and see how things shake out after two starts per pitcher before making any moves that could be more lateral than anything.

I have Homer bailey and was wondering if you like any of these guys more. All are free agents.
McDonald,gee,cashner, strailey or Ervin Santana?. Thanks.

Big Mike,

Those are all PoD guys for the time being so I’d just stick with Homer. For now though, you might want to spot him and just play him for road starts. The bottom line is that those waiver wire pitchers aren’t clear upgrades over Bailey.

Zach

Just want to hear your thoughts on my “always-bad” squad in yahoo standart roto-league… :)) Here it is.
C V.Martinez
1B A.Gonzalez
2B M.Prado
3B W.Middlebrooks
SS S.Castro
OF J.Hamilton
OF J.Willingham
OF B.Revere
UT J.Reddick
UT. E.Cabrera
With A.J.Ellis, Y.Alonso and J.Gyorko on bench.

Pitchers look like this:
S.Strasburg
C.Sale
Y.Gallardo
R.Halladay
M.Rivers
J.Hanrahan
T.Wilhelmsen
J.Broxton
With A.Pettite and B.Rondon on bench, though, I believe, Rondon will be dropped, since he’s optioned, but don’t know for who now. Maybe I’ll pick up Beachy, hoping for his return, or look for one more closer.
So, what you think??
With best regards. Thanks.

Tarbot,

The pitching is solid and although I think you’ve covered the categories well, I personally would shy away from owning BOTH Revere and Everth as they’re pretty much one-category specialists. I like more balance from my starting lineup. But that’s just personal preference. This could turn out to work well, so long as both speedsters stay healthy.

Zach

Agree for Revere and Everth – drafted them in later rounds, because suddenly noticed that this “one-category” became a pretty thin point :) Wanted to improve it somehow.
From what I think, Revere can be a good run-scorer (counts in yahoo-standart) with something like godd BA. And he’s young and improving (hope so). And believed as leadoff man. I hope it’ll work :) Maybe keep Revere, and sub-out Cabrera for one of “my” other Padres, depending on how they start the season.
Thanks for respond. Good luck this coming season!!

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