July 2013

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, August 1

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies

CORY’S PICKS

Quintana @ Masterson – tough matchup but I love Quintana’s K potential
Shields @ Diamond
Lyles @ Tillman
Delgado @ DarvishDelgado has a very rough stretch of matchups coming up…
King Felix @ Dempster Dempster consistently mediocre, but a decent matchup
Johnson @ Richards – JJ has allowed 19 runs in his last 13.2 IP
Harvey @ Koehler
Kelly @ Morton – be patient, Morton gets the Marlins next
Cain @ Hamels – the ultimate hang with ‘em game
Bettis @ Teheran
Nolasco @ Rusin

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 31

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates

CORY’S PICKS

G. Gonzalez @ Verlander – gotta ride Verlander all the way

Dickey @ Colon – Dickey: 5.34 ERA in July since 2-hitter vs. Rays

Bailey @ Stults – Stults 2.45 ERA at home vs. 4.64 away… the new Clayton Richard?

Quintana @ Kluber – love Quintana’s stuff, despite tough matchup

Bedard @ M. Gonzalez

Gaudin @ Kendrick – Phillies are banged up and not scoring

Wainwright @ Locke – Locke’s brutal K-BB ratio makes him too risky vs. Cards

Miley @ Hellickson

Chatwood @ Minor – Chatwood 2 or fewer runs in 12 of 14 starts!

Mejia @ Alvarez – Alvarez 2.64 ERA in 5 starts; Mets 27th in MLB in OPS vs. RHP

Iwakuma @ Lackey

Williams @ Perez

W. Peralta @ Jackson

Guthrie @ Correia – blue plate special

Kuroda @ Kershaw

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 30

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Washington Nationals

CORY’S PICKS

Gallardo @ Villanueva (Gm 1) – getting harder and harder to say “pitch” on YoGa

Thornburg @ Arrieta (Gm 2)

Lyons @ Burnett (Gm 1)

Lynn @ Gomez (Gm 2)

Rienzo @ Kazmir

Norris @ W. Chen – Norris’ last start as a ‘stro?

Zito @ Lannan

Strasburg @ An. Sanchez

Kennedy @ R. Hernandez – can’t trust Kennedy vs. even mid-tier offenses

Nicasio @ Wood – Nicasio worth a look in deeper leagues and/or if chasing K’s

Wheeler @ Eovaldi

Saunders @ Workman

Wilson @ Holland

Big Erv @ Pelfrey

Buehrle @ Straily

Latos @ Volquez

Pettitte @ Greinke – not a slam-dunk “pitch” for Pettitte… tough matchup

Updated PoD Category Chart (7/26)

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Texas Rangers

Zach here,

An updated Pitch or Ditch category chart has been long overdue. Well, here it is, hot off the press! This should keep you all plenty busy over the weekend.

POD Chart 7-26-13

And here are the changes we’ve made since the last version:

                                                                                                                                      PROMOTIONS

Sale grad to ace

Kuroda grad to ace

Lackey PoD to grad

Leake PoD to grad

Liriano PoD to grad

Big Erv PoD to grad

Colon PoD to grad

Wilson PoD to grad

Tillman PoD to grad

M. Gonzalez PoD to grad

Deduno indifferent to PoD

Pettibone indifferent to PoD

Gaudin indifferent to PoD

DEMOTIONS

Pettitte grad to PoD

What do you guys think? Feel free to post your comments below.

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, July 27-29

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Archer @ Nova – Nova very sharp since return from AAA

Keuchel @ Johnson – hang with ‘em on JJ

Richards @ Milone – Milone at home, yes please

Deduno @ Harang – Deduno 4-of-5 QS, and good matchup

Dempster @ Feldman

Darvish @ Masterson

Lee @ Scherzer

W. Davis @ Sale

Kelly @ Teheran

Gee @ Haren

Morton @ Koehler – Morton 3.35 ERA since return from DL

Gorzelanny @ Pomeranz

Cashner @ Skaggs – risk/reward on both, go with your needs

Rusin @ Bumgarner

Arroyo @ Ryu – tough matchup for Arroyo but 3.19 ERA is hard to ignore

                                                                                                                                                SUNDAY

Ogando @ Jimenez – wait and see on both

Moore @ Hughes

Cosart @ Redmond – Cosart very impressive so far, though low K’s a concern

Pettibone @ Porcello

Lester @ Hammel – too much risk for either

B. Chen @ Santiago

Hanson @ Parker – if Hanson handles this one his stock goes WAY up

Gibson @ E. Ramirez – better matchup for Erasmo

Cole @ Fernandez

Torres @ Jordan – Jordan a shutdown candidate in 3-4 more starts

Wood @ Lincecum

Cingrani @ Capuano

Hand @ Chacin

Ross @ Corbin

Miller @ Medlen – bench but don’t cut struggling Medlen vs. elite offense

                                                                                                                                               MONDAY

R. Hernandez @ Doubront – Doubront 13 straight starts of 3 or fewer runs

Weaver @ Garza

Danks @ McAllister – both calls strictly based on matchup

Rogers @ Griffin

Westbrook @ Liriano

De La Rosa @ Beachy – wait and see on Beachy, who wasn’t sharp on rehab

Hefner @ Turner

Lohse @ Samardzija

Leake @ O’Sullivan

Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/29

Hey everyone,

Here’s this week’s version of my two-start pitcher notes. And as always, be sure to check out our podcast when it becomes available later this afternoon. Longtime friend of the 411, Joe Sheehan, joins Cory in studio and Rotowire’s Derek Van Riper is our phone guest.

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                     Yovani Gallardo  (@CHC, vs. WAS)

Coming off his latest blowup on Thursday, it’s pretty obvious that Gallardo cannot be trusted right now regardless of the opponent. I’m not saying that you should drop him, but even though these matchups sound decent, he needs some bench time. Yovani’s velocity has been down all season, his strikeout rate is down and both his ERA and WHIP are horrible. Maybe he turns it around next week, but in a 12-team mixed league, I just don’t think he’s worth the risk. In a 15-team mixed or an NL-only, yeah, you might as well throw him out there. It’s not like the waiver wire will be full of great options.

Ricky Nolasco  (vs. NYY, @ CHC)

Although Nolasco’s strikeout rate is nothing special, he’s been fairly effective and consistent this season, which is no small accomplishment for a guy who hasn’t pitched to a sub-4.00 ERA since 2008. He gets a pair of extremely appealing matchups next week, as he’ll be at home to face the anemic Yankees’ lineup and then goes up against a Cubs team that is in the midst of tearing apart their roster. Pitch with confidence.

Ian Kennedy  (@TB, @BOS)

I was a big time Kennedy supporter heading into this season but my patience is running on empty. At this point, he’s definitely droppable in 12-team mixed leagues, and there’s no way I’d pitch him next week, maybe outside of NL-only formats, as these matchups are flat-out terrible. Investing so heavily in Kennedy (I own him in four leagues) was without question my biggest draft day mistake of 2013.

Felix Doubront  (vs. SEA, vs. ARI)

Slowly but surely, after an erratic start to the season, Doubront is getting his act together. We’re talking six quality starts in his last seven outings to go along with a healthy dose of strikeouts. Spotty control from time to time always seems to plague Doubront, but next week is as good a time as any to pitch him. The Diamondbacks’ offense isn’t much better than mid-tier, the Mariners’ lineup is sub-par, and Doubront’s home ERA is nearly a half-run lower than his road mark. Sounds good to me!

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets

Jeremy Hefner  (@MIA, vs. KC)

I picked up Hefner in Mixed Tout just in time for that blowup against the Phillies, so it’s tough for me to think objectively here being that I’m still very annoyed with him. But if you don’t feel OK about pitching him next week, there’s really no reason why he should still be on your roster. The vs. KC start is a tad risky being that the Royals have been hitting better of late, but the Marlins remain an ideal team to pick on, even with the additions of Yelich and Marisnick. Oh yeah, and Hefner’s ERA in two starts vs. the Marlins this year is 1.93. Pitch.

Bud Norris  (@BAL, @MIN)

There’s a decent chance that Norris will get traded within the next week, so this blurb might be all for naught. I’ll keep it short and simple. The @BAL start has disaster written all over it while the @MIN outing, although looking good on paper, isn’t really that great being that Norris’ road ERA is almost three runs higher than his ERA at home. Outside of AL-only leagues, stay away!

Zach McAllister  (vs. CHW, @MIA)

McAllister’s overall season numbers are far from inspiring, but he hasn’t had many particularly poor performances either. He’s 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.17 WHIP at home this year and the White Sox offense is middle of the road at best. And the Marlins are, well, the Marlins. McAllister makes for a sneaky good play in deeper leagues.

Edwin Jackson  (vs. MIL, vs. LAD)

E-Jax is back! Well, not entirely, but he’s allowed three earned runs or less in each of his last four starts and appears to be putting his early-season struggles behind him. In a daily format, I might pitch him for the vs. MIL start but would definitely sit him against the Dodgers. When looking at the week as a whole, I think that the vs. LAD start is too dangerous to justify using him at home against the Brewers. In mixed leagues, I’m playing it safe and ditching.

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 26

MLB: Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

CORY’S PICKS

Mejia @ Zimmermann (Gm 1)

Harvey @ Ohlendorf (Gm 2)

Dempster @ Tillman – don’t love the circumstances for either

Archer @ Sabathia

Perez @ Kluber – tough matchup but I’m a big Kluber fan

Lyles @ Dickey – tough to trust Dickey right now, but it’s the Astros

Hamels @ Fister

Locke @ Alvarez

Wainwright @ Minor

Shields @ Quintana

W. Peralta @ Chatwood – Peralta is en fuego but I’m still playing safe in Coors

Stults @ Delgado – risk/reward on both, judge accordingly

Williams @ Colon

Bailey @ Kershaw

Diamond @ King Felix

Jackson @ Cain – hang with ‘em on Cain

 

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 25

MLB: Washington Nationals at New York Mets

CORY’S PICKS

A. Wood @ Wheeler – don’t like the matchup for Wheeler, and don’t think Wood is ready yet
Burnett @ G. Gonzalez
Kuroda @ Holland
Verlander @ Peavy
Volquez @ Gallardo
Eovaldi @ Nicasio
Bedard @ Buehrle – you wanna bet on Bedard having no-hit stuff again?
Hellickson @ Lackey
Kendrick @ Lynn – Lynn 5.67 ERA since June 1
M. Gonzalez @ Guthrie
Villanueva @ Miley – Miley on a nice roll of late
Wilson @ Straily
Latos @ Greinke
Correia @ Iwakuma

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 24

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

CORY’S PICKS

Griffin @ Norris – Norris’ last start with the Astros?

Pelfrey @ Weaver

Kazmir @ SaundersSaundo much better at home but the Indians can hit

Liriano @ Strasburg

Nolasco @ Rogers – Nolasco worth a look in deeper leagues, but Toronto still a tough draw

Hudson @ Hefner

Price @ DoubrontDoubront worth a shot in deep leagues for his K upside

Pettitte @ Garza

W. Chen @ Big Erv

An. Sanchez @ Danks – I might go for Danks if Miggy is out

O’Sullivan @ Lohse

Lannan @ Westbrook

Turner @ De La Rosa – I like Turner, but not in Coors

Samardzija @ Kennedy – Kennedy has to pitch better eventually, right?

Leake @ Gaudin – Gaudin is on a tear, ride it

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 23

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays

CORY’S PICKS

Cingrani @ Surkamp (Gm 1)

Zito @ Reynolds (Gm 2 – to be played in SF) -  Zito pitches well in SF, worth a look in deeper leagues

Cole @ Jordan

Capuano @ Redmond

Medlen @ TorresMedlen slumping, but it’s the Mets…

R. Hernandez @ Lester – Lester only 3 QS in last 11 outings

Hughes @ Ogando

Hammel @ B. ChenHammel hasn’t been great this year but it’s the Royals…

Porcello @ Santiago – tough matchup but Santiago 3.13 ERA in 12 starts

Parker @ Cosart

Ross @ Hand

Pettibone @ Miller

J. Fernandez @ Chacin

Wood @ Corbin – Wood still defying regression…

Gibson @ Hanson

McAllister @ E. Ramirez – good spot for both to return; McAllister vs. Mariners and Erasmo at home

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