July 2013

Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 7/8

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees

Zach here,

While the rest of the country downed hot dogs and celebrated the Fourth of July yesterday, I was hard at work writing up these two-start pitcher notes! But don’t feel too bad for me. Before my mind shifted to two-start pitchers, I did manage to eat a pair of dogs, or more precisely, 2.9 percent of Joey Chestnut’s portion.

OK, let’s get started on these two-start pitchers. For this edition, I decided to change things up a bit. Being that all of the mid-tier options have pretty favorable matchups, there’s really no one among that group who I’d recommend ditching. So instead, here are five pitchers, all owned in less than 40 percent of CBS Sportsline leagues, who warrant attention.

Hector Santiago  (vs. CHC, @PHI)

Why doesn’t this guy get more respect? I mean, look at those numbers. Yeah, the walk rate is a bit on the high side, but 79 strikeouts in 74 2/3 innings and a 3.50 ERA. In five starts since moving back into the rotation, Santiago is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA, 1.28 WHIP and 33 strikeouts in 29 innings. Does that sound like waiver wire material to you? These matchups aren’t the greatest, but he’s coming off a dominant outing versus a tough Orioles’ lineup, so he’s proven that he can thrive regardless of the opponent. To me, Santiago is a must-start for next week in just about any format.

David Phelps  (vs. KC, vs. MIN)

Phelps’ stat line as a starter this season (5-4, 4.93 ERA, 1.42 WHIP) is nothing to write home about. But take away that one disaster outing vs. the Orioles at Camden Yards and you’ve got this: 5-3, 3.84 ERA, 1.29 WHIP. I know, I know, you can’t do stuff like that. But doesn’t everyone deserve a mulligan? Anyway, in mixed leagues of 12 or more teams, I’m absolutely on board with pitching Phelps next week. The matchups are favorable and you know you’ll get some strikeouts.

Randall Delgado  (vs. LAD, vs. MIL)

Four starts, three quality starts, 22 punchouts over 25 innings. It’s been a nice run for Delgado, who now appears to be firmly entrenched in the Diamondbacks’ rotation. While pitching Delgado is far from a no-brainer, the matchups here are decent enough that those of you in deeper mixed leagues might want to give the former top prospect a shot.

Chris Archer  (vs. MIN, vs. HOU)

Inconsistent command continues to be an issue for Archer, but the upside, particularly in the strikeout department, cannot be ignored. The 24-year-old righty boasts a 3.18 ERA and 1.18 WHIP over his last three starts, the Astros are the second-lowest scoring team in the AL and the Twins’ offense is no better than mediocre. There’s some risk here, but in a deep mixed league, banking on Archer could pay off.

Tyler Chatwood  (@SD, @LAD)

Chatwood picked a bad time to throw a stinker, as prior to his poor performance on Wednesday versus the Dodgers (5 IP, 11 H, 5 ER, 2 HR allowed) he was on the verge of earning legitimate mixed league relevance. Still though, a 2.75 ERA to go along with a mere two home runs allowed (yep, he didn’t give up any before Wednesday) through 55 2/3 innings is awfully impressive. Tyler has been lights out on the road this season (0.82 ERA, 0.95 WHIP in four starts) and both Petco Park and Dodger Stadium are pitcher- friendly environments. Chatwood makes for a sneaky good pickup in NL-only leagues and very deep mixed formats.

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, July 5

MLB: Spring Training-Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals

ZACH’S PICKS

Liriano @ Samardzija

Hudson @ Lee

M. Gonzalez @ Nova – Gonzalez on a roll

Porcello @ Masterson – Porcello falling back down to earth and I don’t like this matchup

Cashner @ G. Gonzalez

Correia @ Buehrle

Axelrod @ Hellickson – Hellickson seems to be back on track

Harang @ Latos

Harrell @ Tepesch

Wheeler @ Hellweg – Wheeler on thin ice but this is a solid matchup

Milone @ W. Davis – Davis worth monitoring but not startable coming off horrendous outing @MIN

Turner @ Westbrook – Turner has been lights out but I can’t help but think that a stat correction will come here

De La Rosa @ Skaggs

Doubront @ Wilson – Wilson putting his early-season struggles behind him

Ryu @ Bumgarner

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, July 4

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

CORY’S PICKS

Hand @ Jordan – Jordan is intriguing but may not be around long enough to use

Kennedy @ Gee – would be nice if Kennedy would start producing results…

Cain @ Leake

Hamels @ Cole

Stults @ Webster – Stults’ meltdown in Miami enough to bench him vs. tough matchup

Britton @ Quintana – Britton worth watching, but not yet using

Jimenez @ Shields – Ubaldo still a pitch vs. weak offenses

Phelps @ Gibson – Phelps with two major blowups in his last six starts

Archer @ Lyles – tough call on Lyles but I think last two poor starts were a blip

Wood @ Parker – Parker may get pushed back to Saturday if hammy is still sore

Verlander @ Rogers

Alvarez @ Teheran

Iwakuma @ Perez

Capuano @ Chacin – not in Coors, nope

Wainwright @ Blanton – Blanton getting hot but Cards too tough

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, July 3

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

CORY’S PICKS

Lohse @ Detwiler – Lohse 2.34 ERA in June

Lannan @ Gomez

Scherzer @ Johnson

Delgado @ Harvey – Delgado’s numbers not great but I like the matchup

M. Gonzalez @ Santiago – Santiago burned me last time and O’s can rake

Nolasco @ Minor – remind me please to never trust Nolasco again EVER

Volquez @ Lester – Lester 6.99 ERA over his last 8 starts… can’t take any more

Zito @ Cingrani

King Felix @ Holland

Kazmir @ Guthrie – nice matchup for Kazmir

Greinke @ Chatwood – toss-up on Greinke in Coors… 5.60 road ERA

Sabathia @ Walters

R. Hernandez @ Norris

Garza @ Colon – Garza’s last start with the Cubs?

S. Miller @ Williams – hang with ‘em on Miller

***ZACH SAYS “I’m ditching Johnson. He’s been way too erratic to trust against tough lineups like the Tigers. Agree on rest.”

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, July 2

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

CORY’S PICKS

W. Peralta @ Strasburg – Peralta worth a look in deeper leagues

Pettibone @ Locke

Fister @ Wang

Corbin @ Hefner

Koehler @ Medlen

Erlin @ Lackey

Lincecum @ Bailey – not trusting Timmy in GABP

Saunders @ Grimm

Hammel @ DanksDanks worth a look in deeper leagues despite tough matchup

Kluber @ Mendoza

Hughes @ Deduno – Hughes OK on the road; Deduno rolling and Yankees slumping

Price @ Bedard – not trusting Bedard yet, even after handling Cards

Kershaw @ Oswalt

Feldman @ Griffin

Lynn @ Weaver

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