August 2013

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, August 22

MLB: New York Yankees at Texas Rangers

CORY’S PICKS

Happ @ Pettitte – Pettitte very hittable at home this year, but Jays are decimated

Albers @ Verlander – not trusting Albers’ hot start vs. Tigers

Quintana @ Shields

Cahill @ Latos

Kershaw @ Alvarez – Alvarez solid so far but Dodgers are too tough

Strasburg @ T. Wood Wood regressing slightly but Nats struggle vs. lefties

Bettis @ Kendrick

Maholm @ Kelly

Locke @ Cain - Locke allowing .325 AVG since All-Star

Updated PoD Category Chart (8/20)

Looks like this All-Star is starting to turn back into a pumpkin.

Looks like this All-Star is starting to turn back into a pumpkin.

Hey everyone,

With less than six weeks to go in the 2013 fantasy season, as Yogi Berra liked to say, “It’s getting late early.” At this stage, every pitch or ditch decision you make is all the more important, so hopefully this updated chart will be a helpful resource. Click on the link below to download the PDF.

POD Chart 8-20-13

Here are the changes we’ve made since our last version from nearly a month ago:

                                                                                                                                     PROMOTIONS

Greinke grad to ace

A. Sanchez grad to ace

W. Chen PoD to grad

Cole PoD to grad

Cashner PoD to grad

B. Chen indifferent to PoD

M. Perez indifferent to PoD

DEMOTIONS

Locke grad to PoD

M. Gonzalez grad to PoD

Dempster grad to PoD

Agree? Disagree? As always, feel free to post your comments and questions here.

-Zach

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, August 21

MLB: New York Mets at Atlanta Braves

CORY’S PICKS

Iwakuma @ Griffin – Griffin has been shaky of late but it’s a favorable matchup

Hellickson @ W. Chen

Masterson @ Williams

Dickey @ Pettitte – both are hit-and-miss of late… let the categories guide you

Correia @ An. Sanchez

Bedard @ Holland

Rienzo @ Guthrie – Guthrie has some upside vs. weak-hitting ChiSox, but he’s risky

A. Wood @ Nieseplaying it safe on Niese vs. top offense

Westbrook @ Gorzelanny

Doubront @ Gaudin – Gaudin bombed last time out and Red Sox can rake

Cole @ Kennedy – Kennedy too inconsistent to trust, home or away

Nicasio @ Lee

McCarthy @ Leake

Greinke @ Eovaldi

Ohlendorf @ Arrieta – keep an eye on both, though

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, August 20

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers

CORY’S PICKS

Rogers @ Nova (Gm 1)

Buehrle @ Hughes (Gm 2)

Cobb @ M. Gonzalez – tough matchup for both, let your categories make the call

Pelfrey @ Porcello

Cosart @ Blackley

Danks @ Big Erv – sticking with Danks’ solid K-BB numbers vs. weaker offense

Salazar @ Wilson

Saunders @ Gray

De La Rosa @ Cloyd

Corbin @ Cingrani

Beachy @ Wheeler

Capuano @ Turner – Capuano worth a look in deeper and unmixed leagues

Haren @ Rusin – can Nationals hit lefties? Do you want to risk Rusin to find out?

Lynn @ Lohse – Lohse risky vs. tough Cardinals but has been solid

Burnett @ Ross

Peavy @ Vogelsong

                                                                                                                                                ***ZACH SAYS “I know Porcello has been hit or miss this year but in deeper mixed leagues I’d pitch him versus a mediocre at best Twins lineup. Agree on rest.”

Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 8/19

Zach here,

Not a whole lot to choose from this week, as the vast majority of two-starters are either no-brainer pitches or obvious ditches. But here’s what we do have.

Miguel Gonzalez  (vs. TB, vs. OAK)

Although his overall numbers are still solid, Gonzalez has been prone to the occasional ugly outing, and both of these matchups are a bit scary. Gonzalez has not pitched as well at home (4.18 ERA) as he has on the road (3.58 ERA) and the Orioles and A’s rank 3rd and 4th, respectively, in the AL in road scoring. But in 12-team mixed leagues, I’d be willing to risk it, as Miguel is always a good bet for a quality start. In shallower mixed formats, there are probably better options.

Dillon Gee  (@MIN, vs. DET)

This is a tricky one. Gee’s home ERA is 2.21 yet his home start comes against the Tigers (tied for 1st in AL in runs). His road ERA is 5.23 yet his road start comes against the Twins (11th in AL in runs). We’re looking at a real toss-up, but in the end I’d lean towards ditching. Better to be safe than to be sorry, and the quality of the opponent carries more weight than the game’s venue.

Marco Estrada  (vs. STL, @CIN)

Yeah, Estrada’s last couple of starts have been encouraging. But am I ready to trot him out there in an unfavorable week, even with the strikeout upside? Nope. The Cardinals and Reds both rank in the top-4 in the NL in runs scored and Estrada has gotten absolutely torched by the Cards this year (9.00 ERA, 2.00 WHIP in three starts). For now, he should only be used in favorable matchups.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves

Jacob Turner  (vs. LAD, vs. COL)

Turner’s last two starts have been mediocre at best, as he followed up a rough outing against the Braves with a six-walk performance on Wednesday vs. the Royals. But I still have faith in this guy. Come on, a 2.89 ERA and 1.27 WHIP through 14 starts? How can you not have faith in him? Sure, I’ll pitch him next week, despite the tough matchup against the Dodgers. But I do see some red flags, suggesting that his ERA is due for a correction. First, there’s the below average .270 opponent BABIP. Then, there’s the uninspiring 6.18 K/9 rate and 1.67 K/BB ratio. Going forward, just be careful with Turner.

Danny Salazar  (@LAA, vs. MIN)

Salazar was supposed to be a two-start pitcher this week, but scheduling changes have pushed him to next week. So to those of you who hurried over to the waiver wire to grab him for this week, I offer my condolences, as all you got was a 4 IP, 3 ER line in what was supposed to be a favorable matchup @MIN. That said, I’ll go back to the well once more with Salazar, as neither of these offenses are anything to write home about. In other words, I’m still on the bandwagon.

Randall Delgado  (@CIN, @PHI)

Delgado is coming off a strong performance versus a talented Orioles club, but the reality is that he’s not much of a strikeout pitcher and these matchups aren’t all that promising. Would I pitch Delgado if we were only talking about the @PHI start? Maybe. But I just don’t feel comfortable committing to him for the entire week. High risk and minimal reward is how I see it.

Pitch or Ditch for Saturday-Monday, August 17-19

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

CORY’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Kuroda @ Lackey

Bettis @ Norris

W. Davis @ Fister

Sale @ Albers

Happ @ R. Hernandez

King Felix @ Perez

Keuchel @ Richards – Richards 7 runs in 26.0 IP in last 4 starts

Jimenez @ Straily

Cahill @ Locke – wait and see on Cahill

Kelly @ Jackson

Kershaw @ Kendrick

Cain @ Alvarez – Alvarez 2.43 ERA in his last 5 starts

Latos @ Gallardo – wait and see on Gallardo

Strasburg @ Minor

Mejia @ Volquez

                                                                                                                                                SUNDAY

B. Chen @ Scherzer – hot as he may be, he’s still Bruce Chen

Chacin @ Feldman – Chacin has a 1.87 ERA on the road

Redmond @ Archer – Redmond has K potential but too HR-prone

Santiago @ Deduno

E. Ramirez @ Darvish – Erasmo has K potential but too HR-prone

Oberholtzer @ Vargas

Kazmir @ Colon – not quitting on Bartolo after only 2 bad starts

Sabathia @ Dempster

Bumgarner @ Koehler

Nolasco @ Hamels

G. Gonzalez @ Teheran

Miley @ Morton

Bailey @ W. Peralta – tough draw for Peralta but he’s en fuego

Wainwright @ T. Wood

Harvey @ Stults – Stults has a 2.37 ERA at home

                                                                                                                                               MONDAY

Gee @ Gibson – Gee has a 2.46 ERA over his last 14 starts… wow!

Price @ M. Gonzalez

Harrell @ Garza

McAllister @ Weaver

Harang @ Parker

Manship @ Martin

Delgado @ Arroyo – I don’t trust Delgado yet in tough road starts

Ryu @ Fernandez

Zimmermann @ Samardzija

S. Miller @ Estrada – Estrada was impressive vs. Texas but Cards kill fly-ball pitchers

Lester @ Lincecum

Liriano @ Cashner

                                                                                                                                                ***ZACH SAYS “I think I’d give Albers, he of the 17 1/3 scoreless innings, a shot on Saturday vs. a White Sox offense that ranks dead last in the AL in runs scored. Ditch on the erratic Kazmir for Sunday. Two of his last three starts have been poor and the A’s can hit. Agree on rest.”

Pitch or Ditch for Friday, August 16

MLB: Miami Marlins at Milwaukee Brewers

ZACH’S PICKS

Shields @ Verlander (Gm 1) – Verlander the 2013 poster boy as to why you shouldn’t draft starting pitching early

Duffy @ TBD (DET) (Gm 2)

Nicasio @ W. Chen – Terrible matchup for Nicasio

Pettitte @ Doubront – Doubront a decent play in deeper leagues but I just don’t see the upside here vs. a suddenly formidable Yankee lineup

Dickey @ R. Hernandez – Dickey’s on a nice roll

Iwakuma @ Holland – Iwakuma fading badly and was mediocre @TEX earlier this year

Quintana @ Correia – Quintana worth a shot here despite poor outing vs. MIN his last time out

Peacock @ Williams

Masterson @ Griffin

Westbrook @ Arrieta – NL-only leaguers should keep an eye on Arrieta though

Greinke @ Lee

McCarthy @ Cole – I need to see more from McCarthy before I can trust him against halfway decent offenses

Gaudin @ Eovaldi – Did you know that Eovaldi is 9-for-10 in quality starts?

Jordan @ A. Wood – Wood has been very impressive

Leake @ Gorzelanny

Niese @ Kennedy – Ideal matchups for both

Pitch or Ditch for Thursday, August 15

MLB: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers

CORY’S PICKS

Wilson @ Hughes – Yanks no longer the cupcakes they have been, but CJ worth the shot
Bedard @ Gray – toss-up on Gray, let your categories be your guide
Peavy @ Buehrle
Guthrie @ An. Sanchez
Saunders @ Cobbgood setting for Cobb’s return
Rienzo @ Pelfrey
Burnett @ Lynn
Vogelsong @ Haren – Haren rolling of late, might as well take a shot
Cingrani @ Lohse
Wheeler @ Ross – good matchup for both

Pitch or Ditch for Wednesday, August 14

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Los Angeles Angels

CORY’S PICKS

Carrasco @ Gibson

Porcello @ Danks – Danks has pitched better than his ERA would suggest, but not good enough to trust vs. the Tigers

Turner @ Big Erv

Weaver @ Nova

Lester @ Johnson – Johnson has pitched better than his ERA would suggest, but not good enough to trust vs. the Sawx

Harang @ Price

Thornburg @ Garza

Cosart @ Parker

Arroyo @ Rusin – the opposite of Danks and Johnson, Rusin is not as good as his ERA would suggest

Cashner @ De La Rosa – arguments for and against both in Coors, but I’ll go for it

Tillman @ Corbin

Lincecum @ Zimmermann

Lannan @ Beachy

Liriano @ Miller

Gee @ Capuano – Capuano worth the gamble vs. the Wright-free Mets

Pitch or Ditch for Tuesday, August 13

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals

CORY’S PICKS

Hanson @ Sabathia – the Angels don’t scare me so I’ll hang with CC

Dempster @ Redmond

E. Ramirez @ Archer – Erasmo hasn’t earned tough matchups yet

Estrada @ Ogando – impressive return for Estrada, but play it safe in Texas

Scherzer @ Santiago

J. Fernandez @ B. Chen – Chen on a roll since rejoining KC rotation

McAllister @ Deduno – Deduno worth using vs. lesser offenses, but Tribe are not that

Lyles @ Colon

Bumgarner @ G. Gonzalez

Martin @ Medlen

Bailey @ Samardzija – hanging with Shark

Morton @ Wainwright – Morton worth using vs. lesser offenses, but Cards definitely are not that!

Stults @ Manship

M. Gonzalez @ Delgado – re. Delgado, see Deduno and Morton

Harvey @ Ryu

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