February 2014

2014 Composite Projections

Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 14 different providers. We’ve had as many as 16 in a season but only had 10 last year, so that’s a step up!

2014_composite_projections_021814

Please make sure to read last year’s release notes (as well as those from previous seasons) for an explanation of how these are created, and the resulting caveats and limitations, BEFORE asking any questions in the comments area!

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2013/02/19/composite-projections-are-here-2/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2012/02/18/composite-projections-have-arrived-2/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/

A few other notes beyond what’s explained in those posts:

* This includes all players who were projected in at least half (7) of the 14 systems, plus about two-dozen “name” prospects who appeared in only 5 or 6 projections. The more projections, the more confidence you should have in those numbers.

* The POS column is based on NFBC position eligibility rules: http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/rules/nfbcclassic.asp?id=1300

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. Free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns. Ages are as of July 1 of this year.

* Dollar values are provided courtesy of our friend “Lord” Todd Zola. Please follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ToddZola) and check out his work at www.mastersball.com. Thanks for sharing LZ!

* I’ve made some preliminary playing time adjustments, but mostly to hitters. Adjust playing time as you see fit, pro-rating all the other stats on the line to match.

* Runs and RBI’s are calculated as described in past posts on this topic, and saves are my own back-of-the-envelope projections based on team and bullpen strength.

* I’ve also projected steals based on a weighted three-year average of stolen base opportunities ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) and stolen base percentages. But, I had to throw a dart with Billy Hamilton…there’s no way he can possibly maintain his minor league rates, is there?

I hope everyone finds this useful on a cold winter day…only a few more days before spring training games start!

Thanks,

Cory

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