2014 Composite Projections

Hi folks,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 14 different providers. We’ve had as many as 16 in a season but only had 10 last year, so that’s a step up!


Please make sure to read last year’s release notes (as well as those from previous seasons) for an explanation of how these are created, and the resulting caveats and limitations, BEFORE asking any questions in the comments area!









A few other notes beyond what’s explained in those posts:

* This includes all players who were projected in at least half (7) of the 14 systems, plus about two-dozen “name” prospects who appeared in only 5 or 6 projections. The more projections, the more confidence you should have in those numbers.

* The POS column is based on NFBC position eligibility rules: http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/rules/nfbcclassic.asp?id=1300

* Teams listed are as of yesterday, February 17. Free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns. Ages are as of July 1 of this year.

* Dollar values are provided courtesy of our friend “Lord” Todd Zola. Please follow him on Twitter (https://twitter.com/ToddZola) and check out his work at www.mastersball.com. Thanks for sharing LZ!

* I’ve made some preliminary playing time adjustments, but mostly to hitters. Adjust playing time as you see fit, pro-rating all the other stats on the line to match.

* Runs and RBI’s are calculated as described in past posts on this topic, and saves are my own back-of-the-envelope projections based on team and bullpen strength.

* I’ve also projected steals based on a weighted three-year average of stolen base opportunities ((SB+CS)/(1B+BB+HBP)) and stolen base percentages. But, I had to throw a dart with Billy Hamilton…there’s no way he can possibly maintain his minor league rates, is there?

I hope everyone finds this useful on a cold winter day…only a few more days before spring training games start!




As always, thanks Cory. You are the man.

As always, thanks Cory. You da man

Great!! I look forward to this every season. A great tool. Thanks Cory!!

Thank you much!

Thanks! Simply the best tool in the fanball business. Much appreiciated. Cory should consider setting up a Patreon!

I’m in a 8 team 4×4 keeper league and keepers are due on Thursday. We were NL only for years and just expanded to include the AL – and we cut keepers from 14 to 5! Which I’m kind of bummed about since I won the last two years in a row and easily have 10 great NL only keepers. Well, anyways, I’m less confident on my values in mixed league and am torn. I can keep up to five of these turkeys.

No brainers
Goldschmidt $19
Jose Fernandez $1
Carlos Gomez $4

Then I need to pick two of these:
Jordan Zimmermann $8 (for 1 year)
Shin Soo Choo $19
Starling Marte $15
Matt Adams $5

Who’d you suggest?

Big Perm Pat
San Diego


Zim and Adams would’ve been my two choices.


Any ideas on how to figure for Quality Starts? We’re replacing Wins with Quality Starts this year. Thoughts?

This is interesting. For several years now, I have thought about bringing this option to some of my leagues for consideration. Mike, Cory, Zach, and the guys at the 411 have always preached, “Don’t chase wins”. If you have followed this mantra, then your strategy won’t change. You pick the starters with the best skills. A small side effect of this rule change might be that it would cut out the strategy of picking good middle relievers for the purposes of vulture wins. While the definition of a Quality Start doesn’t necessarily equate with stats that we consider good (a 4.50 ERA at worst), I think it reflects better quality in pitchers than wins. I’ve had years where I’ve won the ERA and WHIP categories, but finished low in wins, and had we used QS instead of Wins, I might have a few more flags to fly forever.

Greg in Cincy

Not a fan of wins but the problem is finding a suitable replacement category. Quality starts comes the closest but like Greg said, what’s quality about a 4.50 ERA? What would be perfect is if the QS rule were changed to 6+ IP with 2 ER or less OR 7+ IP with 3 ER or less. Oh well!


Thanks Cory,
As always a great job.

Thanks so much Cory. Such a great tool…my real perpetration can now begin!

Fantastic work Cory! Greatly appreciated.

The 2009 ZIP file isn’t linking properly to Word Press. I was going to statistically examine the performance of projections versus actuals for the past few years. But thanks for putting up the 2014 data!

Awesome job as always,,, This helps pave the road to a Championship Seaso

I have a few questions I don’t think have come up before…
on the prices.. are those based on masterball’s stat projections or were new prices figured for the composite?
On someone like Jimenez.. were his stats updated to reflect the new park and pitching coach or would that be in a future update?
I can download this to open office (since I don’t have excel.. wife is cheap).. can I still use the stats in open office to upload to a draft day auction software.?
Any suggestions as to a good draft software?
Thanks for the hard work.

I have last pick of 3rd round and 1st of 4th round…would a starting pitcher be to early looking at Wainwright or Darvish? where would you think Pujols or Hamilton should be taken in a 12 team head to head league…..

First of all, thank you for helping me win last year’s league and backing me up on some questionable decisions from our commissioner:)

I am in a 12-team H2H dynasty league. We get to keep 10 for next year. I’ve decided 7 for sure. The remaining spots are left for 3 of the following 4:

-JJ Hardy (shortstops come at a premium and I fear there isn’t much value here in the draft)
-Shelby Miller (young, but is he a #2 or #3 starter?)
-Mat Latos (normally a #2 starter, but injuries concern me)
-Masahiro Tanaka (picked him up as soon as he was eligible; the great unknown)

Who misses the cut? Please advise!


Tough one, but ultimately I’d leave out Hardy and gamble that you can get him back in the draft. You’re familiar with the league’s player pool more than I am though, so if you’re intent on keeping Hardy, I’d actually lean towards leaving out Tanaka due to the unknown factor. I mean, how confident are we that he’ll turn out to be a better pitcher than Latos or Miller? Far from guaranteed.

Zach (@ZachMLB)

Yes, this is my question too…

“on the prices.. are those based on masterball’s stat projections or were new prices figured for the composite?”

This is my question too.

“on the prices.. are those based on masterball’s stat projections or were new prices figured for the composite?”

Prices were calculated by Todd Zola based on the provided projections, rather than just being lifted from something published elsewhere. They are specific to these projections.

As for Ubaldo, Nelson Cruz and anyone else who has changed teams/roles since these projections were posted, their projections are not updated. These are projections as of February 19 so any team/role changes since then are not reflected here.


hi wondering who you like best of these players., top 2..OF….Hamilton/L Martin/ Myers/ Marte/ Heyward…..or for 2b/3b such as donaldson/ Kinsler/ Altuve…wondering about picking 2 of these players with my 5/6 picks and continue for now to pass up closers/starters……

I need a better idea about who you’re really between.

when does the podcast start?

Is there any video.. or even audio.. of tout or labr (from any year) of their auction in action?

Not that I know of, pepsi, but this year’s labr drafts are being held this weekend, so I’m sure there’s plenty of material floating around the internet. Try doing some googling!

Oh, and SiriusXM is broadcasting both LABR and Tout, but I don’t think their broadcast is live “play-by-play”, more analysis themed.


I’m trying to find the release notes and not be one of those morons but i can’t seem to find a link I’m interested in knowing what budget amount the dollar projections are based off of per league type. So for 12 team mixed it’s a total budget of …


first yr replacing wins with quality starts as a stat other than the aces what are some good undervalued pitchers that can help with quality starts thanks


Take a look at the QS leaders over the past few seasons. That should give you a pretty good idea.


I’m sorry I’m back, please explain the insane Evereth Cabrera projections Zips/Steamer/Cairo not even close to this.

Where are the podcasts? Are you guys not doing them this year?
Say it ain’t so Corey and Zach

hi well we are in the 7th round and I get the last pick of the round and 1st of the next round…..I need to grab a closer as top ones are gone and with starting pitching going quick may wait on that…..out of these 2B who do you think will contribute to head to head scoring……Hii/Profar/Kinsler/murphy/phillips, etc


From that list, Kinsler, Phillips and Hill would be my top three, in that order.


I can’t wait for the podcasts to start.

Hey guys! Looking forward to another year! I have a keeper question…12 team vanilla league.

We can’t keep first rounders, we can keep 3.

I’ve got it narrowed down to 4…thoughts?
Goldschmidt, Darvish, Kipnis, & Ortiz

Salvador Pérez (KC – C) Round 13, Pick 6
Paul Goldschmidt (Ari – 1B) Round 5, Pick 6
Kyle Seager (Sea – 3B) Round 15, Pick 6
Aramis Ramírez (Mil – 3B) Round 7, Pick 6
Asdrubal Cabrera (Cle – SS) Round 10, Pick 7
Justin Upton (Atl – LF,RF) Round 3, Pick 6
Coco Crisp (Oak – CF) Round 17, Pick 2
Giancarlo Stanton (Mia – RF) Round 2, Pick 7
David Ortiz (Bos – 1B) Round 12, Pick 7
Jason Kipnis (Cle – 2B) Round 7, Pick 2
Craig Kimbrel (Atl – P) Round 4, Pick 7
Fernando Rodney (Sea – P) Round 9, Pick 6
Addison Reed (Ari – P) Round 16, Pick 7
Stephen Strasburg (Was – P) Round 1, Pick 6
Yu Darvish (Tex – P) Round 6, Pick 7

Appreciate everything as always,
Josh A


I’d definitely go with both Goldschmidt and Kipnis. Darvish vs. Ortiz is tough when factoring in the round values, but I think I’d leave out Ortiz. He clogs up your UTIL spot and is getting up there in age. I know it’s nitpicking, but I just can’t bring myself to leave out Darvish, a top-3 SP and reigning strikeout champ, for an attractive price.


late game cheap pitching for a 12 team NL only 5×5 auction league: who do you like, and am I being optimistic that some of these guys fall through the cracks?
Josh Johnson
any others you would target?



Late game in a 12-team NL-only? Outside of Mejia and McCarthy, I think you’re being optimistic. There’s a chance that someone like Wily Peralta will fall through the cracks, but how about E-Jax? The guy drives me crazy but it can’t get much worse than last year, right?


I was afraid you were going to say that. E-Jax, ouch! I better allocate a few more bucks to SP. I’d rather take a chance on Malholm, Erlin, Billingsley, Nelson, even Villaneuva. Maybe Chacin drops down from the injury news. Hey even Petit. or Detwiler. As long as I don’t get Volquez. Is there a SP that can do more damage to your stats in the NL? Can you believe someone kept him for a buck in one of my NL only leagues? He could easily do -$10 worth of damage.

Thanks, Cory!

These are the best tool for draft prep!

Keeper Question for you, Zach:

12 team vanilla mixed w/5 keepers. Low innings cap essentially makes Ks K/9.

Definitely keeping E5 in round 8 and Carlos Gomez in 7th

Then I need to keep 3 of:

Votto in the 1st
Braun in the 1st (would be 2nd rd if kept both)
Kenley Jansen in 14th
Starling Marte in the 18th
Gerrit Cole in the 28th

Don’t know if the value of the later picks outweigh the studs…

Additionally, I have an offer on the table to get Strasburg in the 12th for Gomez in the 7th.



Yes, the value of the last three guys easily outweighs the value of Votto or Braun. Votto isn’t even a clear-cut first rounder and Braun, though a first rounder, carries enough risk that he’s no slam dunk.


Thanks, Zach!

Any thoughts on trading away Gomez in the 7th to get Strasburg in the 12th?

I’d pass on that trade, despite the round value difference. I’ll usually take the hitter over the pitcher when it comes to keepers and Gomez still carries very good keeper value.



I was wondering what you think of yahoo rankings? I just did a draft and the rankings are alot different than the other leagues I’m used to. This is how my draft went as far as my picks go.
Trout 1(1)
Votto 2(20)
D.Wright 3(21)
Pedroia 4(40)
Segura 5(41) Maybe too soon?
D.Price 6(60) P1
Cespedis 7(61)
Hamels 8 (80) P2
C.Santana 9(81)
J.Heyward 10(100) Good Value?It was Heyward or J.Hamilton with this pick.
Rosenthal 11(101)
Perkins 12(120)
D.Robertson 13(121) Don’t really know why i felt the need to go with a 3rd closer
Victorino 14(140) Utility 1
M.Adams 15(141) Utility 2
J.Abreu 16(160) Didnt really know what his true value was.
Kuroda 17(161) P3
K.Seager 18(180)
R.A. Dickey 19(181) P4
CC. Sabathia 20(200) P5
H.kendrick 21(201)
Lincecum 22(220) P6
BJ Upton 23(221)I figured with my last pick id take a leap of faith.well maybe my last 2 picks…

I know its alot but i really appreciate any advice or criticism.


10 team standard roto by the way.



Not a whole lot to criticize about that roster. I don’t think you really reached for anyone and I particularly like the Abreu and Seager picks. And yes, Heyward over Hamilton any day of the week.


My points league subtracts points for Blown Saves. Any idea on the average blown saves %? I want to include it to weight my relievers against the other positions.

That’s a Cory question!

I am looking at the following couple of deals.

14 Team League. Head to Head.
Beyond 10th Year Now. Usually finish in Top three. Almost always in Top 5.
This year we keep 9-12 Keepers. Contracts are 3 years only.
With Buddies Since Tee Ball. Competitive.
Contracts Renew When Traded. Expire Yr in ( )
Compete in following 6×6 areas:

>> I expect that I will go into the draft protecting 9 hitters and 3 starting pitchers.

Who would you rather keep out of the following deals? I would have either for two more years.
Zach Greinke or Wil Myers???

TRADE: Cliff, Lee (Must trade), Joey Bats (1 year left), Craig Kimbrel (Must Trade), Zack Greinke OR Wil Myers (Both Two Years left)
GET: Joey Votto, Stanton, Jose Fernandez
* I could likely keep Greinke/Myers if I pull Jose….

TRADE 2: Cliff, Lee (Must trade), Joey Bats (1 year left), Craig Kimbrel (Must Trade), Zack Greinke OR Wil Myers (Both Two Years left)
TRADE: Miguel Cabrera, Ryan Braun, Justin Verlander


I’d much rather hold onto Myers than Greinke and I prefer Trade 2. Fernandez gets the edge over Verlander but I think the Miggy/Braun duo easily tops Votto/Stanton.

Zach (@ZachMLB)


my brother just drafted his team and i had a few concerns i wanted to run by you.
his closer situation is awful and his outfield situation is pretty bad as well or maybe im overstating that i dont know thats why im asking you.
its a 10 team standard 5×5 with 2 catchers and 5 outfielders 1 MI and 1CI

P-Darvish,King Felix,Bumgardner,Hamels,Gio Gonzalez,Cain,Medlen,
RP-Jim Henderson. H Street
Bench-CC sabathia,Masterson,Buchholz.

The other teams in the draft went crazy drafting Kimbrel,Jansen and Chapman in the second round while 4 more went in the 3rd round so i told him just to hold off and take hitting. I hope i didnt mess it up for him.



That’s a pretty loaded team right there. Maybe the outfield is bad compared to the infield, but it’s far from bad. I definitely do think that the closer situation needs upgrading. The starting pitching is so deep and so dominant that dealing one or more starters for an elite closer isn’t a bad idea.


Hey Zach,
Getting ready to pick ML players in my 12 team NL only auction. I kept Wong from last year, traded off my other 5, so I get 5 picks. Among the guys left that look interesting how would you rank them:
Colin Moran
Rymer Liriano
Dom Smith
C. Villanueva
J. Nelson
JP Crawford

I’m looking for skills over immediate help

Not too familiar with most of those guys, higgs, but check out Mayo’s Prospect Watch. It’s a very useful tool.


Yea I have, but those listings seem to be more focused on real prospect value (for example defense, which is why Hedges is so highly rated) rather than fantasy value, which we all know can be very different things. Does he have a listing that focuses on fantasy value?

Hi guys–
I’ve been a big fan for years and have a quick keepers question. I play in a 12-team, head-to-head mixed league and have four keepers that I need to choose from the following six players: Edwin Encarnacion, Ryan Braun, Freddie Freeman, Madison Bumgarner, Ian Desmond and Jason Kipnis.

I plan on keeping Braun and Edwin but am uncertain beyond those two, though I have been leaning towards Freeman and Bumgarner. Which four would you keep from those six? Thanks!


That’s a real tough one as all six are no doubt top-4 rounders. If you really can’t make a 2-for-1 swap to both narrow and upgrade your choices, I think I’d go with Encarnacion, Braun, Desmond and Kipnis, but that’s really because I always favor hitting over pitching and love the idea of a dominant middle infield. But it also depends on who will be available in the regular draft and which of these guys you think you might be able to get back.

Zach (@ZachMLB)

Cory, will there be an update to the composite projections as in past years, and if so, do you have a sense of when that update will be posted? Need to know whether I should use the Feb. 18 composites for my draft prep or whether there will be more current numbers. Thanks!

Looking for one 411 fan to join the Paul C Smith league (one of the 411 leagues). Leave me a note here and I’ll send you an invite. League is on ESPN and been running a long time through MLB Radio.

Hey Dean,

Long time 411 listener, would love to join the league! My email is tdwester at yahoo dot com.


Hey Todd, I will send an invite as soon as I know the person not returning. Thanks

Sounds great. Thanks!

Hi, all!
Thank you, Cory, for the projections! They’re the basis off all my prep every year.
Now for the question: 12 team, mixed, 5×5, keep your best five players. I’ll definitely keep Miggy, Trout and Harper. Which two of these three are best to keep?: Pedroia, Stanton, Wainwright? I’ve already tried to package Pedroia and Wainwright for Fielder, Davis and Goldschmidt, but to no avail.
Dave in Delaware

Dave I’d go Stanton and Wainwright. See you at Foleys on the 26th


I’d go Pedroia and Wainwright, but you can’t go wrong with Stanton either. I’m just concerned about Stanton’s counting stats (outside of HRs) since he’s hitting in such a mediocre lineup. And since you’re already keeping two OFs, why not diversify?


Ive only drafted 1 starting pitcher so far(Cole) so looking at a number 2…medlen/minor/Teheran/ Bailey/ hamels/ wacha/ cobb? what you think of Moose this year as a CI….seems to be doing well in spring games….thx


So oddly enough noone was willing to deal any closers for one of my starters but tonight i checked the wire and R.Soriano was there so i snatched him up. I had to drop A.Cabrera who was a bench player to get him though because i didnt know which pitcher if any to drop. My bench guys are Sabathia, Masterson and Buchholz but Medlen just strained something and hammels is gonna miss time so maybe i need those guys more than Asdrubal. Also i was wondering in your opinion if lincecum would be more valuable than one of those guys? My closer situation is now Soriano, Henderson and (ugh) Street. Not a fan of street. Do you think he will have a good enough year to help me?



Well now it looks like you can drop Medlen!

I’m a little more optimistic than most regarding Lincecum, but I’d still be hesitant to choose him over any of your current SPs.

Street is usually very effective when healthy. The problem is that he’s rarely fully healthy. I’m not at all against owning him, but cover yourself by drafting Benoit. The Street/Benoit duo pretty much equates to a very good No. 2 closer.


Other then LABR and the CBS experts auction.. will there be any other experts auctions before TOUT?
When does Cory put out the updated projections? Is it before he goes to TOUT?

probably before the NFBC Main event.

Isn’t NFBC the same weekend as TOUT?

I need to chose 4 keepers from the following: J Bautista, Felix, Wainwright, Posey, Hosmer and Brandon Phillips (yes not the best selection).

Not sure I want 2 pitchers but am feeling Hosmer and Philips might still come back to me and Bautista is an injury risk. Interested in your thoughts

(Std 12 team 5X5 with innings limit)



I’d go with the first four. Totally agree that Hosmer and Phillps could come back to you. Hosmer will be a close call, but there’s no way you’re getting back any of the first four.


I am in a 12 team h2h dynasty with daily lineups. I have Billy Hamilton and was wondering if I should view him as a daily lineup lock given his potential for steals. My other OFs are Trout, Cutch, and Stanton. My util. are currently Gordon, Butler, and Votto.


Yeah, Hamilton is a guy you’re going to want to keep in your lineup all the time, so I’d try to work a trade to solve your excess hitter problem. But I’d wait a couple of weeks into the season to make sure that Hamilton is getting on base enough. If I had to pick one player to bench. it would probably be Gordon.


well we are in the 17th round and I still need a 2nd catcher although not much to pick from….in a 12 team head to head league…..Salty will proibably be gone so looking at Russell Martin/ Zunino/ Castillo/ Grandal/ Pierzynski/ Mesoraco? Any of these players getting full time duties and some upside? ……

Pierzynski is probably the safest choice among that group but Mesoraco carries the most upside.


addendum…..also Pinto what are his chances of winning starting C job in Minn?


Pinto will start the year as Kurt Suzuki’s backup but it wouldn’t at all be surprising to see him take over as the starter by mid-season.


Got a pitching keeper question: Keep 2 of these 4, lose the round, with FAs counting as the last round (30, 29, 28, etc.). What do you think? Thanks for your help!

Ryu (19)
Teheran (23)
Salazar (FA)
Gray (FA)


Wow, all of these guys are great options. I’d go with Teheran and Salazar but you really can’t go wrong with any of them.


Hey Zach:
Do you know if any website keeps track of spring training velocities? trying to find out How Yoga is doing over the spring

Not sure about spring training velocities. I know that during the regular season, that information is readily available.


when will the rankings come out

I need Keeper help for a 10 team NL Only. Do I keep Billy Hamilton @ the 15th round, Ryan Zimmerman @ 2nd Round, or Wilin Rosario @ 4th? I’m already keeping Bryce & Starling. Thanks all.


Gotta go with Hamilton. The value there is too good to pass up.


In my 12 tm, points league, only a couple of SP and RP surpass 700 pts in any year. This year I project only Kershaw, Wainwright, maybe Lee, Kimbrel and Chapman to do it. Chapman is being kept. As are a lot of the top closers, Jansen, Holland, Rosenthal, Robertson, Uehara. Based on the limited amount of top closers, as well as the huge point total, would you pay whatever it took to get Kimbrel?


No one player has an unlimited price but you obviously have to adjust your strategy based on league format. To me, Kimbrel is in a class by himself when it comes to closers.


This is a 12 team 5×5 NL only league with no bench. I have 2 pitchers to replace by FAAB, Corbin who will go on the DL and Mejia who will go to the minors. This is my roster to put things in perspective.

Montero $23
Rosario $7
Craig $7
Wong $3
Descalso $1
Segura $2
Mercer $1
A-gon $37
Gomez $2
Holliday $38
Ruggiano $1
J. Upton $34
Venable $17
Lagares $7

Garza $14
Gallardo $14
Gee $9
Cole $3
Morton $2
Veras $15
Wilson $1
Mejia $2
Corbin $11

ML(all $3 from separate draft)

If Hembree makes the 25 man roster that would take care of one spot. These are the most interesting FAAB pitchers available:
Jordan Taylor (if he gets the 5th spot)
Villaneuva (will start the year in the rotation, not sure if that is a good thing)
Delgado (ditto)
Will Smith
Alexander Torres
Kintzler (2nd in line after Henderson?)
Hoover (just to get solid innings until something better comes around)
Vizcaino (but can only claim him if he is on the 25 man roster)

Any suggestions?

Well, Hoover is obviously a must pickup now. I actually like Villanueva. He’s been effective out of the bullpen and has even enjoyed some strong stretches as a starter and can give you some strikeouts.


we are in reserve rounds of draft…..looking for a 6th OF…..Brantley is there but what you think about Grady Sizemore and chances of him starting for Red sox and upside…..think Chris Young can be productive after years of futility thx

Which side u like better David Wright/andrelton Simmons or votto/Bogaerts Thanks

Votto/Bogaerts. Even if you call Wright vs. Votto a wash, I’m more intrigued by Bogaerts’ upside than that of Simmons.



Welcome back to another year!! I’m looking forward to the stable insight you guys offer on the regular.

I got pushed out if the SS during my draft and was forced to go with Rollins. I’d like to back him up with Dee Gordon.

Should I drop Kelly Johnson, Justin Smoak or Colby Rasmus to pick him up?

Also, Corey Hart is on the wire. Thoughts



If you can use the speed, I don’t have a big issue with you dropping Johnson to pick up Gordon. I don’t know why, but I have a good feeling about Smoak and Rasmus this year. Johnson has some upside as well though, so I’d only make that move if you truly have a need for speed.


Which side do you like better…David Wright and Ian Kinsler or Paul Goldschmidt and Aramis Ramirez? Thoughts?

Goldschmidt/A-Ram. Goldy is without question the best player of the four and Aramis has been productive when on the field. Here’s hoping for better luck this year in the health department.


with Profar out need another MI with little to choose from…..looking at Escobar(kC) or Owings (Ariz) ?

addendum would R Weeks if he wins starting job be worth a take

Will there be an updated set of composite projects out soon?

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