Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 4/28

Zach here,

For 12-team mixed leaguers, there’s not a whole lot to be excited about on the two-start pitcher front for next week. Sure, there are a few intriguing choices that are worth monitoring closely, but most of them still have something to prove.

Let’s get to it.

Alfredo Simon (vs. CHC, vs. MIL)

Who knows how much longer the magic will last for Simon, but the bottom line is that through four starts, he’s 3-1 with a 1.30 ERA and 0.94 WHIP. I have my doubts about him going forward, as he’s already 32 and his starting pitching track record is rather thin, but being that he will be facing one middle of the pack offense in the Brewers and one sub-par lineup in the Cubs, I’d lean towards pitching him in deeper formats. In a 12-team mixed league, he’s as borderline as it gets.

Wade Miley (vs. COL, @SD)

Miley is your typical back of the rotation fantasy starting pitcher. He won’t wow you but he won’t hurt you either. This year’s 8.5 K/9 rate is encouraging, but it could very well be the product of a small sample size. The 16 walks through 36 innings aren’t too encouraging. I’d say there’s a slightly better than 50/50 chance that he’s available in your standard 12-team mixed league, but if he’s still out there, I’d definitely pick him up for next week’s pair of matchups. The Rockies are a mediocre offense when on the road while the Padres rank dead last in the Majors in runs scored. Oh, and he’ll be facing them at Petco Park. Pitch with confidence.

Jose Quintana (vs. DET, @CLE)

I’ve always been a fan of Quintana, and with four quality starts over his first five outings, he’s performing pretty much as expected. He belongs in the same “low-risk, low-reward” class as Miley, but the difference is that while Miley’s matchups for next week are very favorable, these aren’t too great, particularly vs. DET. Like Simon, I’ll say to pitch Quintana in deeper formats but hold off on him in 12-team mixed leagues.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

Tyler Skaggs (vs. CLE, vs. TEX)

Skaggs has yet to live up to the expectations that came with his top prospect status, but the 22-year-old is showing significant progress this season, registering a 3.21 ERA and 1.11 WHIP through his first four starts. That said, our excitement must be tempered by his underwhelming 5.1 K/9 rate. Skaggs was a big strikeout pitcher in the Minors though, so maybe this is just a temporary regression. Still, I’m not convinced that the consistency will be there, at least not right now. Sorry for sounding like a broken record, but Skaggs is another guy who you should consider in deeper formats but leave on the bench in 12-team mixed leagues. The vs. TEX matchup would scare me off.

Jonathon Niese (@PHI, @COL)

Yeah, the @COL matchup is scary and Citizens Bank Park isn’t a friendly pitching environment either, but Niese’s 2014 season has so far been a success (2.45 ERA, 1.13 WHIP through four starts). And it’s not like he’s had the benefit of cupcake matchups (vs. CIN, @LAA, vs. ATL, vs. STL). There’s definitely risk here, as Niese’s career numbers @PHI and @COL aren’t pretty, but this is a situation where I’ll side with recent performance over long-term history. Pitch.

Jason Vargas (vs. TOR, vs. DET)

The problem with Vargas is that you never know what you’re going to get from him on a start-to-start basis, and his lack of strikeouts caps his ceiling. Look, his first five starts have been brilliant (1.54 ERA, 1.00 WHIP), but this also means that a blowup is well overdue, and I think we’ll see at least one and maybe two of them next week. For these matchups, I’m staying far away in all mixed leagues.

2 Comments

10×10 H2H Dynasty, due to injury to Harper could drop Wheeler, Salazar or Jesse Chavez but, the latter “unknown” has been stellar and that’s the rub. Instead I could drop Mesoraco (DL) from a bench, not DL slot to make room, I’m just not sure of his long term upside at a thin position in a Dynasty league. It’s only a one catcher roster and currently I am streaming the position with Ruiz. Which choice? Your valued advice please. Thanks RK

Ugh, that’s a tough one. Considering Chavez’s overall body of work and the fact that he’s already 30, I’d lean towards dropping him. But if you can package him in a 2-for-1 trade, that would be ideal.

Zach

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