Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 5/12

Zach here,

Symmetry is the theme of this installment of two-start pitcher notes, as we have a neat three and three thing going. Let’s get to it!

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           PITCHES

Mike Leake (vs. SD, @PHI)

A mediocre finish to what was on the whole a true breakout season for Leake last year had many, including myself, thinking that last season’s 14-7, 3.37 ERA, 1.25 WHIP stat line could not be duplicated in 2014. Wrong. Through seven starts this year, Leake sports a 3.40 ERA and 1.09 WHIP, and he’s even showing improvement in the K/BB department. The Padres rank dead last in the NL in runs scored and share the home run cellar spot with the Mets. Citizens Bank Park is a tough place to pitch but the Phillies are also a sub-par offense.

MLB: Miami Marlins at New York Mets

Tom Koehler (@LAD, @SF)

Look, we all know that Koehler is due for a stat correction, and maybe it happens in the @LAD start, but maybe it won’t. Even though the Dodgers have one of the more dangerous lineups in the Majors, Koehler has already had success against them this year (7 IP, 0 ER on May 2). The Giants’ offense has actually performed fairly well this season, but they have been better on the road than at home. And besides, how can you bench a guy who has allowed two runs or less in six of his first seven starts?

Drew Smyly (@BAL, @BOS)

These matchups are plenty scary and Smyly has been shaky at times this year, but I think once he gets into the routine of pitching every fifth day (he pitched out of the bullpen until April 18), we will start to see more consistency. And listen to this. In 202 2/3 big league innings (roughly a full season of starts), Smyly is 12-5 with a 3.24 ERA and 1.16 WHIP to go along with 198 strikeouts. Pretty good.

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                         DITCHES

Tim Lincecum (vs. ATL, vs. MIA)

As I mentioned in the Pitch or Ditch post below, Tiny Tim is getting dangerously close to DTM status. The former Cy Young award winner has recorded just two quality starts in seven tries this season and he’s allowed 50, yes 50 hits over his first 35 2/3 innings. I don’t care that both of his starts next week will come at home. The vs. MIA matchup might seem like a favorable one, that is until you realize that the Marlins have scored the second-most runs in the NL. Lincecum belongs on your bench next week in all mixed leagues. In mixed leagues of 12 or fewer teams, a strong case can be made that he belongs on the waiver wire.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Toronto Blue Jays

Mark Buehrle (vs. LAA, @TEX)

Buehrle is the AL counterpart to Koehler in that you know that regression is coming but you don’t know when it will come. If it doesn’t come next week, I’d be shocked. The Angels rank 3rd in the AL in runs and 2nd in homers. @TEX is generally a matchup to avoid for all non-elite starting pitchers. I have a bad feeling about all of this.

Colby Lewis (@HOU, vs. TOR)

Lewis certainly deserves Pitch or Ditch attention going forward, as he could be a cheap source of strikeouts. He’s also done a nice job of limiting free passes so far this season, issuing only five walks through his first 25 innings. But the bottom line is that he’s been way too hittable, and until he can shake off more of the rust from his prolonged injury absence, he should only be used in ultra-favorable matchups. @HOU is one of those ultra-favorable matchups, so in a daily lineup league, I’d pitch him there, but vs. TOR is far from an ultra-favorable matchup. In 12-team mixed leagues, I’ll pass on Colby for the two-start week.

20 Comments

Im not sure if my last comment went through. But when Janssen comes of DL i would finally get another close back but i would have to drop one of my holds pitchers, who do you think has more upside (will smith, santiago casilla, joel peralta, and sam LeCure). If you had to drop one who would you consider it to be.

I think you have to drop Peralta at this point. He’s been pretty awful so far, and at 38 years of age, he’s no spring chicken!

Zach

Thoughts on Lyons and Nolasco?

Lyons is a definite pitch considering the favorable matchups. Ditch Nolasco. I don’t think I’ll ever again fully trust him, regardless of the matchup.

Zach

Upon return from the DL pick up Mesoraco or keep Wilson Ramos

Zack,

Been a while! I have 4 two starters in weekly pts h2h lg (Cole, Kuroda, Salazar, Wheeler) along with Iwakuma and Niese. Only one will have to sit, cant be ‘Kuma or Niese because they havent given me any reason to sit them, so of the 4 2-starters, who gets the seat?

Salazar is trending up but Toronto and Oakland do horrible things with good contact and his rates for HR/9 and Babip dont bode well…. Kuroda is coming off an amazing outing, but it’s just one start and the rest were pretty terrible. Cole has been better of late(still need to see that k rate rise, but im starting him). And Wheeler terrifies me vs Yanks and Nats, teams that love to drive a pitch count.

Im leaning toward Wheeler but his last start showed me something. Is there a better sit here that im not seeing?

Derek,

I was going to say Wheeler as well until I saw that Salazar won’t be making two starts, so it looks like the decision has been made for you!

Zach

In a 14 team mixed league with a waiver wire very thin on pitching do i drop travis wood for jesse chavez thanks

Yes, absolutely!

Should I trade wilson ramos and zach wheeler for gio Gonzalez?

A fair deal but I think I’d pass. Despite his inconsistency, Wheeler still has ace-type potential, and I expect him to take a big step forward sooner rather than later. I don’t see the SP upgrade as being great enough to warrant losing Ramos.

Zach

Hey Zach,
Adrian Beltre/MadBum for Kipnis/Carlos Gomez. Which side?
Thanks for all your help!

Scott,

It’s a little risky being that we don’t know exactly when Kipnis will return, but I’m such a fan of Gomez that I think I’d do it. There’s a decent chance that you’ll wind up with the two best players in the deal.

Zach

What are your thoughts on Hamilton coming back in a couple weeks? Would you consider trying to trade for him for a Brandon Moss or Alexei Ramirez. My outfielders are McCutchen, Gomez, Moss, Kemp, Khris Davis, and Dickerson mixed in with Polanco on the bench. My infielder are Castro, Ramirez, Utley, and Kendrick

Thanks!

Honestly, I think Hamilton is more trouble than he’s worth. If you can really buy low on him, that’s fine, but both Moss and Alexei are having very productive seasons so far, so I’d stick with them.

Zach

Is GR (Garrett Richards) a graduate yet? Very impressive this season, with the K’s and the ERA/WHIP. Throws mega hard, could be a new star blossoming.

He’s pretty close…definitely a breakthrough candidate.

Should I deal Wilson Ramos and Wheeler for David Price?

Yeah, that’s a trade I would make. Despite his early inconsistencies, Price remains a true ace.

Zach

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