Two-Start Pitcher Notes – Week of 9/22

Zach here,

This is it, the final edition of my two-start pitcher notes for the 2014 season. And the unique thing about next week is that among the two-start pitchers who are owned in the majority of mixed leagues, there really isn’t anyone who I’d avoid. So instead of the usual Pitches and Ditches, we’ll stick to Pitches this time. Note that all of these guys are owned in less than 65 percent of CBS leagues and I’ve ranked them in order of preference.

Derek Holland (vs. HOU, vs. OAK)

Holland is owned in only 46 percent of CBS leagues, which is simply inexcusable. All he’s done through four starts since making his long awaited return from the DL is post a 0.99 ERA, 0.99 WHIP and 22-to-3 K/BB ratio in 27 1/3 innings. No, last season was no fluke, and don’t forget about the Rangers southpaw in the latter rounds of drafts next spring. There’s a good chance that he will deliver a substantial profit.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Atlanta Braves

Josh Collmenter (@MIN, vs. STL)

Very quietly, Collmenter is putting together a fine season, and he’s no longer simply a pitch at home but ditch on the road guy. Yeah, his 2.75 ERA at home is more than two full runs lower than his road ERA, but in ten starts since the All-Star break, home and road, Collmenter boasts a 3.26 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The Cardinals lineup has significantly underperformed this year and while the Twins actually rank 5th in the AL in runs scored, their lineup isn’t exactly intimidating. Plus, Collmenter gets to face them in pitcher-friendly Target Field.

Aaron Harang (vs. PIT, @PHI)

Harang usually scares me, but he’s fresh off two consecutive dominant performances against a very good Nationals lineup (14 IP, 2 ER, 17 K). The Pirates and Phillies rank 2nd and 6th respectively in the NL in runs scored since the All-Star break, so there’s certainly risk involved here. That said, I’m going to side with the recent performance over the matchups, especially if you’re looking for some cheap strikeouts.

Jorge De La Rosa (@SD, @LAD)

Of this group, I’m the least confident in De La Rosa, mainly due to the fact that he’s been a far better pitcher at home than on the road this year. But since one of the matchups is @SD and considering that his 3.57 ERA since the All-Star break is nearly a full run lower than his first half mark, I’d give it a shot in deeper mixed leagues. In a 12-team mixed, he’s more of a last resort if you’re chasing wins and strikeouts.

4 Comments

Hey Zach. Two quick keeper questions. All contracts are equal; K/9-OPS league. I’ve seen rankings all over the place on these guys (mainly due to this year’s performance). How would you sort them going into next year?
1) Harvey, Kipnis, Wright, Myers, Machado (I’ll probably keep two and am leaning toward Kipnis and Machado)
2) Mesoraco, Rosario, Gomes (leaning Mesoraco, but Rosario’s tempting)
Thanks.

1. Agreed on Kipnis and Machado. My ranking would be Kipnis, Machado, Myers, Harvey, Wright.
2. Rosario. He’s a little more established than Mesoraco and you have to love the Coors Field factor.

Zach

NL only keeper league, looking for wins and K’s but don’t want to hurt ERA and WHIP too much. What pitchers do you like better? 1 start Big Erv (4 dollars) versus 2 start Haren or Collmenter, 1 start Wily Peralta (2 dollars) versus 2 start Haren or Collmenter. Do you think I should hang tight and try to trade Peralta and another few keepers in return for 1 big keeper or make these moves? Thanks!

I’d go with the two 2-start guys (Haren and Collmenter). Both have fairly favorable matchups and both have been pitching well (giving Haren a mulligan for his Coors Field start), so the ERA/WHIP risk isn’t high enough to dissuade me from going after the extra wins and strikeouts.

As for Peralta, I like him, but not to the point where I’d pass up an opportunity to upgrade my keeper group. So I wouldn’t at all be opposed to including him in a package in the right deal.

Zach

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