Zach’s Postseason Musings (10/8)

Throughout the postseason, I’ll be sharing my fantasy-angled thoughts on a variety of noteworthy players from each game with the goal of helping you get a jump start on your 2015 draft prep! So keep checking back here every weekday for new posts.

NLDS Game 4 – Nationals @ Giants

Bryce Harper (2-for-3, 2B, HR, 2 RBI) performed well in the postseason, with three homers, four RBI and four runs scored in four games. Combine that with a strong finish to the regular season (.288 AVG, 11 HR, 21 RBI, 29 R across 229 at-bats in the second half) and there’s every reason to believe that with better luck in the health department, Bryce can take a huge step forward in 2015, his age-22 season. Over the past two years, I felt that Harper was a bit overvalued in drafts. That’s no longer the case. Next spring could very well be the last time that you will be able to draft him at somewhat of a discount.

-Although Ryan Vogelsong (5 2/3 IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 2 BB, 4 K) clearly isn’t the same pitcher who strung together two consecutive All Star type seasons in 2011 and 2012, he’s still a serviceable mixed league fantasy option when the matchups are right. The bad news is that he enters free agency this winter and the odds of the Giants re-signing the 37-year-old are probably less than 50-50. There are few ballparks that are more pitcher-friendly than AT&T Park, so a change of address likely means a drop in fantasy value. In that case, you will be better off looking elsewhere in mixed leagues.

MLB: NLDS-Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals

NLDS Game 4 – Dodgers @ Cardinals

Matt Adams (1-for-3, HR, 3 RBI) finally got the opportunity to play every day this year, and though the .288 average was nice, his fantasy owners had to be disappointed with the 15 homers and 68 RBI in 142 games. The .321 OBP also left a lot to be desired. That said, Adams has shown enough promise at the big league level to suggest that a bounce back campaign is in store. Keep in mind that this is a guy who slugged 17 home runs in just 108 games in 2013. Also keep in mind that he turns 27 next August, so he’s still relatively young. I wouldn’t hesitate to draft Adams as a low-cost starting CI in mixed leagues with plenty of upside.

-A year ago, Shelby Miller (5 2/3 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 4 K) looked like he was on the cusp of stardom, but he battled inconsistency for much of this season, even getting dropped in my Tout Wars league, a 15-team mixed. Well, I’m glad I picked him up. Miller closed out the regular season in impressive fashion, recording quality starts in six of his last seven outings. While it would be unwise to rely on him for strikeouts, Miller did whiff nearly a batter per inning in 2013, so he’s bound to improve upon this year’s 6.2 K/9. There isn’t much downside in taking a flier on Shelby at the deflated price.

2 Comments

Where do you see Dickerson going in 12 team mixed next year? I’m figuring I might have to reach for him in the 3rd round to make sure he’s on all of my teams. I would draft him over Tulo or Cargo.

Rick,

I have a feeling you’re a Rockies fan? Yeah, Dickerson is coming off a great year and his minor league numbers are impressive. But personally, I need to see more before I’d even think about shelling out a third round pick for him. As for taking him over Tulo and Cargo, forget it. Also note that his home/road splits were extreme, and are we convinced that he can duplicate this season’s .363 average with 15 homers and 53 RBI in 234 Coors Field at-bats? I’m just not a fan of reaching for players with limited big league track records. Drafting Dickerson in the third round leaves little room for profit. I actually wouldn’t be surprised to see him available past the fifth round.

Zach

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