2015 List of 12
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Zach back with you,
The long anticipated 2015 List of 12 has arrived! If you’re not familiar with the principles of the List of 12, check out the opening portion of this post from a few years ago.
Now I’ll hand things over to Cory:
The List of 12 comes out to 14 names this year. See the attached spreadsheet for career stats on the entire gang. Here’s how I rank them for 2015:
Darvish, Yu – Assuming his elbow checks out healthy he should be a top-5 fantasy pitcher again in 2015. Keep an eye on his rapidly increasing fly ball rate though; that could portend a few more homers in hitter-friendly Arlington and a mild bump in his ERA.
Cobb, Alex – A variety of injuries have limited his innings over the past three seasons, and may make him a little under-the-radar, but none are arm-related. In his last 56 starts going back to August 23, 2012, he has a 2.78 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a 321-106 K-BB ratio in 353 IP. That’s not just fun with selective end dates, that’s a borderline ace in fantasy. Strong buy.
Iwakuma, Hisashi – He slumped at the end of last season but his overall numbers were exceptional once again. He has a 2.97 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 417-to-91 K-BB ratio in 493.2 IP since joining the Mariners rotation in July of 2012 and there’s no reason to expect any sudden decline this year.
Alvarez, Henderson – His ERA’s done seem to match his relatively pedestrian strikeout numbers, but it doesn’t hurt at all that he’s extremely stingy allowing walks and homers. The truth is probably somewhere in between his last two seasons, with an ERA in the low 3’s and a WHIP around 1.15. Only the weak strikeouts keep him from being a #2 in fantasy.
Collmenter, Josh – In his last 22 home starts going back to June 22, 2012, he is 9-5 with a 2.74 ERA, 0.95 WHIP and 89-24 K-BB in 131.1 IP. He’s not that good of course, but let this serve as your reminder to not forget him on Draft Day… and particularly in Pitch-or-Ditch friendly formats!
Chen, Wei-Yin – His ERA dropped by a half run last year, but the home run and strikeout rates suggest to next expect a repeat. He’s end-of-rotation material, but useful.
Simon, Alfredo – Started out surprisingly well, and faded somewhat predictably, in his first full season as a starter. Moving from Great American Ballpark to Comerica Park will help mitigate his gopheritis somewhat, but the deeper AL lineups won’t do him any favors. Don’t expect a repeat.
Medlen, Kris – Remember him? He looked like a budding ace in 2012-13 before needing Tommy John surgery; the Royals think he’ll be able to contribute by the second half of this season. Keep that in the back of your mind.
Nova, Ivan – He’s expected to return from Tommy John surgery at some point in the first half, and hopefully will show the form that led to a 3.10 ERA in 139.1 IP in 2013. If the strikeout rate holds, don’t rule out some end-of-rotation value.
Milone, Tommy – He pitched exceptionally well in 16 spot starts with the A’s last year but was awful after coming to the Twins. He’s a homer-prone soft-tosser who can be useful when he’s on his game, but there’s probably no upside to look forward to.
Lyles, Jordan – He’s on this list by virtue of crossing the 500 IP mark last year, not by virtue of his 5.09 career ERA. He might be worth a few Pitch or Ditch looks though if and when the matchups are friendly enough.
Estrada, Marco – His 2013 and 2014 seasons were very similar, except for the spike in his HR/FB rate last year that resulted in his banishment to the bullpen. Working long relief in the Rogers Centre homer palace won’t lead to a rebound.