2015 Composite Projections Have Arrived!
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Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 12 different providers. This is fewer than last year, when we had 14, and we’ve had as many as 16 in a season. However, in looking over these numbers, and reading recent research on the topic, it’s clear that more and more systems are converging in their projections, so there’s really very little value to be found by scraping up another few sets of numbers.
Please read the release notes from last season and previous years, for an explanation of how these are created, and the resulting caveats and limitations, BEFORE asking any questions in the comments area!
A few other notes beyond what’s explained in those posts:
* This includes only those players who were included in at least half (6) of the 12 projection systems. The PROJ column indicates how many projections were averaged for each player; the more projections, the more confidence you should have in those numbers.
* The POS column is based on NFBC position eligibility rules: http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/rules/nfbcclassic.asp?id=1300. I’ve also included a tab with games by position for MLB and minor leagues (totals), with columns for positional eligibility based on 20, 15 and 10-game minimums.
* Teams listed are as of February 17 (for hitters) and February 18 (for pitchers), and free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns.
* I included dates of birth this year rather than ages; be mindful of recent research which indicates that hitters are peaking later than the traditional age-27 season!
* Playing time is NOT adjusted, and as such, the games values may not make much sense in some cases because not all systems include those categories. For instance, Mookie Betts is projected here for only 78 games, but 447 at-bats. As such, I suggest you ignore the games columns and do your playing time adjustments based on at-bats and innings pitched.
* Runs, RBI’s, steals and saves are presented as projected by the various systems. As detailed in previous posts, I use my own calculations for those categories, but these are the raw numbers taken straight from the projections.
* Please don’t ask which projection systems are included in these averages. Some of them are free but some are for-pay, so I’d rather not dilute the value of their offering by “outing” them here.
Finally and most importantly, please keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here!
I hope everyone finds this useful on a cold winter day…only a few more days before spring training games start!