2015 Composite Projections Have Arrived!

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Hey gang,

Attached is the first draft of this year’s composite projections, representing the average projection from 12 different providers. This is fewer than last year, when we had 14, and we’ve had as many as 16 in a season. However, in looking over these numbers, and reading recent research on the topic, it’s clear that more and more systems are converging in their projections, so there’s really very little value to be found by scraping up another few sets of numbers.

2015_comp_projections_022015

Please read the release notes from last season and previous years, for an explanation of how these are created, and the resulting caveats and limitations, BEFORE asking any questions in the comments area!

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2014/02/18/2014-composite-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2013/02/19/composite-projections-are-here-2/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2012/02/18/composite-projections-have-arrived-2/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/03/03/2011-composite-projections-update/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2011/02/19/2011-composite-projections-1-0/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2010/03/07/updated-projections-372010/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/12/22/building-better-player-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2009/02/19/2008-gxp-and-2009-projections/

http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/2008/02/15/composite-projections-are-here/

A few other notes beyond what’s explained in those posts:

* This includes only those players who were included in at least half (6) of the 12 projection systems. The PROJ column indicates how many projections were averaged for each player; the more projections, the more confidence you should have in those numbers.

* The POS column is based on NFBC position eligibility rules: http://nfbc.stats.com/baseball/leagues/rules/nfbcclassic.asp?id=1300. I’ve also included a tab with games by position for MLB and minor leagues (totals), with columns for positional eligibility based on 20, 15 and 10-game minimums.

* Teams listed are as of February 17 (for hitters) and February 18 (for pitchers), and free agents are indicated with “FA” in the team and league columns.

* I included dates of birth this year rather than ages; be mindful of recent research which indicates that hitters are peaking later than the traditional age-27 season!

* Playing time is NOT adjusted, and as such, the games values may not make much sense in some cases because not all systems include those categories. For instance, Mookie Betts is projected here for only 78 games, but 447 at-bats. As such, I suggest you ignore the games columns and do your playing time adjustments based on at-bats and innings pitched.

* Runs, RBI’s, steals and saves are presented as projected by the various systems. As detailed in previous posts, I use my own calculations for those categories, but these are the raw numbers taken straight from the projections.

* Please don’t ask which projection systems are included in these averages. Some of them are free but some are for-pay, so I’d rather not dilute the value of their offering by “outing” them here.

Finally and most importantly, please keep in mind that these are not predictions, and they are not “my” projections… they are averages of projections provided by multiple other systems. So if you think the numbers are too high or too low for any given player, that’s your prerogative, but don’t complain about it here!

I hope everyone finds this useful on a cold winter day…only a few more days before spring training games start!

Thanks,

Cory

17 Comments

Thanks for all the information!

Fantastic! My draft prep goes into overdrive each year once the composites come out.

Cory? Please read nine links before asking a question? Really? Think about it. I don’t mind doing research. That just seemed a bit arrogant and lazy.

Pitching projections? Coming soon I presume ;-))

Alex C – check the second tab.

Philip – Fair point, but I’d just be re-typing a lot of the same stuff over and over again! I’ll try to find time to re-type the previous posts into one new and improved fresh post in the future, but for now, hopefully clicking the links won’t diminish the value of the post.

Thanks,
Cory

Awesome–thanks Cory. Utilize this tool every year…

Is David Price worth keeping at $25 in a 10 team, h2h keeper league? It’s inline with most auction prices, but I do have three pitching keepers in Hamels ($10), Cobb ($14), and Arrieta ($9).

Depends on your other keeper options. $25 is a fair price for him but certainly no bargain. I’d definitely choose Hamels, Cobb and Arrieta over him though.

Zach

I can keep 8, but I only have 5 worth keeping! Cobb, Hamels, Arrieta, Duda, and Adam Jones. $270 budget.

I also feel $25 could be wisely spent elsewhere…

I have no problem letting him go, especially with the cheap pitching you already have.

Zach

I don’t see the dollar values, where can I find them?

Reblogged this on MLB.com Blogs Central and commented:

Happy Early 10th Birthday (in May) to our MLB.com Fantasy 411 blog…and hope you fantasy owners love the new composite projections. It’s a milestone around here…

Pingback: MLBVoice » Blog Archive » BASEBALL ON FRIDAY! It’s FUN! Talkin’ Baseball w/Mary! :)

Thanks Mr. Cory for putting this together. Will be utilizing it for the first time this year in my prep. Glad you guys will be back doing the Pod this year.

What’s the timing on updated projections? My draft is March 25th. Will you be posting anything before then?

Cory says they are coming in the next couple of days.

Zach

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