Updated Composite Projections (3/20)

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Here’s the second and final version of the composite projections. Since the last version, I’ve incorporated updated projections from a few of the providers, and a few providers adding projections on some additional players.

Once those all were averaged together, I adjusted projected playing time to my expectations, focusing on likely regulars and key bench players, starting pitchers and key bullpen members. Conversely, playing time projections for lesser bench players, low leverage relievers and Quadruple-A players should not be taken too seriously.

Note that I didn’t project Rasiel Iglesias and Jason Marquis making the Reds rotation, or Brad Penny making the White Sox rotation, so the playing projections on those guys and a few others might not be close to reality. Then again, I doubt many leagues are hanging on Marquis or Penny as difference-makers!

Finally, I put some minor tweaks on the actual performance projections based on past performances, trends, spring training updates, etc. For instance, if a projection came out to 20 homers, I might have bumped it down to 18 or 19, or up to 21 or 22, but there were no drastic changes made.

Good luck in your drafts!

CS

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8 Comments

Hi Zach, how much do you think the injury to Alex Cobb throws him down in the rankings? I was thinking of keeping him as my 6th keeper in a 12 team league, but now I have really strong doubts. My other keepers are Ellsbury, Braun, Donaldson, Cano and Kimbrel. Other keeper options are Cespedes (we play 4 OF’s), Tyson Ross and DeGrom, but I know I could one of those last two back (or a comparable SP). I’m drafting either 11th or 12th in the first non-keeper round.

Thanks as always Ivo

It sounds like Cobb might not miss more than the first two weeks of the season, so I’m not downgrading him too much. That said, I still think that Cespedes is the superior keeper option. Plus, you have a better chance of getting Cobb back in the draft than Cespedes, especially in that draft slot.

Zach

hi zach. need your trade input. i trade donaldson and ellsbury and get miggy. pull or pass? thanks

Definitely pass. That’s way too much to give up: two top-2 rounders for a first rounder but one who isn’t quite a sure thing anymore. Even if we knew that Cabrera would stay healthy for the entire season, I’d still lean towards no.

Zach

Quick keeper question. NL only 5×5 auction league. I am already keeping Baez, McCutchen, Gomez, Posey and Mesoraco. Choosing between Alvarez (15 dollars) and Fister (10 dollars). I kind of want to go with Alvarez, hoping he’ll bounce back (I think he does and hits 30+ HR. Just want to get your thoughts. My hitting will be very strong if Alvarez can bounce back, but that’s a big IF. What do you think?
Thanks, Robby

Very close call but I think it’s worth a shot with Alvarez. There are so few players who could easily hit 30 homers if given a full complement of at-bats, and it sounds like the Pirates are still committed to him.

Zach

Now with Baez being sent down, what should I do? I may go ahead and look for a Segura in the draft instead. Now I can keep Fister and Alvarez, who won’t bring my average down as much. What SS/MI do you think I should go for in the draft (NL only 5×5 league) I’m targeting Scooter Gennett at 2B.
Thanks, Robby

I’m not at all opposed to that idea. I’m quite high on Segura this year. Gennett won’t hurt you but at the same time he doesn’t bring a whole lot to the table from a fantasy perspective.

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