2016 Composite Projections (First Draft)

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2016 AL LABR Auction Draft Results

2016 NL LABR Auction Draft Results

2016 Mixed LABR Draft Results

And be sure to check out the 2016 MLB.com Fantasy Player Preview, which contains rankings, write-ups and projections for over 800 players.

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Hey everyone,

Back by popular demand, here is a first draft of Cory’s 2016 Composite Projections spreadsheet.

A few notes from Cory:

* We found 12 projection sources this year, and included all players here who were included in 7 or more of those. The more projections, the more reliable the numbers are likely to be.
* Team/league assignments are as of March 6.
* Positions are as listed on rosters and/or in our database, and NOT based on position eligibility (to-do list).
* Playing times are NOT adjusted, so there may be some odd disconnects between games and at-bats, or games and innings, etc. (to-do list).
* Runs, RBI’s, stolen bases, saves and all other stats are averages of provided sources, NOT calculated based on raw stats (to-do list).
Here’s a link to last year’s composite projections post for additional reference. In that blog post, you will also find links to older posts if you would like to gather as much information as possible about the projection process.
Cory hopes to have a second draft ready in a week or so.
Enjoy!

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26 Comments

It’s Christmas!!

Hello Zach! Have you noticed any general trends in your drafts so far this year? I have. Starting pitchers are flying off the boards early and often. In my most recent 12 team mixed, there was a starting pitcher taken, on average, every 3.2 picks through the first four rounds. I don’t complain because I believe it’s more important to stock on on hitting early than it is to get sucked into a pitching run, but this has become some what common in my drafts. Are you noticing the same?

Yes, definitely. Just look at the 411 slow mock as an example, as 15 starting pitchers were taken within the first five rounds. With pitching becoming more dominant in recent years, the target ERA, WHIP and K’s for your fantasy staff should be adjusted. I’ve been slightly more aggressive in drafting starting pitching this year, maybe not to the extent of drafting Kershaw in the first round, but grabbing one top-10 SP and perhaps two top-20 SP’s isn’t a bad idea.

Zach

Festivus for the REST OF US! Thanks Cory!

Zach,

Couple questions..what ever happened to mike siano? is he not a part of the 411 anymore? I realize his name hasnt been mentioned in a while but i was just thinking about how i used to watch the show he had corey used to do. also does corey ever answer any of the questions people ask on here?

ok back to the main question..in a 10 team roto league with extra offensive cats being TB and K’s would you feel comfortable waiting on a guy like Elvis Andrus or Alcides Escobar as your main SS or would you reach for a higher end guy like bogarts or seager or lindor in the 5th or 6th round and chance losing a guy like Kluber as your number 2 starter? I am worried that SS is actually very shallow this year and that I will be stuck with someone im not happy with if i dont have a plan for the position going into the draft. Please help.

Dmenz

Mike retired from the 411 last year. If you have specific questions for Cory, I can relay them to him.

If I knew I could get Andrus plus Kluber as my SP2, that would be my preference. Andrus is clearly in a tier above Escobar in my opinion.

Zach

Zach,

Your advice is very much appreciated. I don’t need Corey or Mike to answer anything. It was just just curiosity as to what happened to those guys because I’ve been watching their show and asking their advice for probably close to 15 years.

Dmenz

Hi Zach,
Love the composite! I noticed that all RP with 30 saves or more also have at least 8 “GS”. I assume “GS” is games started. If so, it makes me wonder about the rest of the data. If not, what does “GS” stand for?

Thanks.
Keep up the good work.

Bill D.

Must be a mistake. I’m sure Cory will clean that up in the next draft.

C rodon or F Liriano as number 2 starter

I wouldn’t really feel comfortable with either as my #2 (they are more like #3’s), but I’ll go with the more experienced Liriano.

Zach

Thanks for the stats!!!! Super helpful.

I’m in a 15 team nfbc league. 50 roster spots, huge bench. With no add drops or trades.

How do you adjust strategy in that format? Closers sooner, prioritize Sp? Shoot for the upside picks once you get to bench rounds?

Thanks
Big Perm

Just finished one of those! I’d say the most important thing is to draft enough pitchers since pitchers are generally more injury-prone. My target number would be 21-23. This year I did 15 SP/7 RP. I actually don’t place as much importance on closers. I’d draft two solid ones but top setup men carry plenty of value considering the high degree of closer turnover every year. So if you draft two closers and 4-5 setup men hoping that at least one or two of them could give you saves at some point, you will be in good shape. And yes, upside picks are important for the bench spots but make sure not to be short in starting pitching.

Zach

18th round 12 team head to head league would you consider T story Buxton. Bradley Jr or Saunders or any worthy of a draft pick

I’d rank them in the order you listed them. Saunders is the only one who I wouldn’t consider at that spot.

Zach

General Question: 10 team snake draft – #2 or #10? I have #2 and was offered #10.
General feelings on draft position?
Thanks as always!
Josh A

#2. Give me Trout/Goldschmidt and I’m happy, especially in a 10-team league where there will be very good options still available at the 20-21 turn. The larger the league the more I’d lean towards the back end.

Zach

Zach,
Need some input on keepers before this weekend AL only $300 cap 8 teams up to 8 keepers 5×5 vanilla roto. BTW.. rosters are frozen so no trades. In no order
.
Travis Shaw $1 (this didn’t seem like a keeper before spring training started)
CJ Cron $4
Donaldson $44
Schoop $4
Semien $5
Lindor $7
K Marte $9
Bogaerts $20
Hyun-soo Kim $1 (this seemed like a good contract before spring training started)
B Burns $23
Bautista $24
.
Kluber $3
Richards $3
Smyly $3
Tolleson $4
Robertson $10
Britton $12
.
I’m leaning towards 4 hitters and 4 pitchers. Besides a couple smashers I’m having trouble with the rest of the hitters.. Will Lindor slip back to minor league numbers? Maybe I keep Lindor and Marte and watch the bidding war on Bogaerts (Correa is going to be kept for $8.. Tulo probably being kept as well)
Thank you

My definites would be:

Lindor, Marte, Schoop, Kluber, Richards, Smyly.

It gets a bit tougher from there, though $24 for Bautista is a bargain, so I’d keep him.

For the final keeper, I’d choose between Robertson and Britton. I view them similarly, so I’d be more inclined to save the two bucks and go with Robertson. Not sold on Tolleson.

Zach

Zach,

10 team 7×7 extra cats are TB,K and L,QS. We use an IF slot and 1 UT slot. 2SP 2RP and 3P. with 5 reserves.
My keepers are Trout,McCutchen,Miggy,Arenado and Scherzer.

I have pick 10 and im trying to decide who to take at the turn. I know ive asked a similar question already but the guys remaining arent what I thought they would be. So at the turn i need to decide which 2 to take. The players i am considering are:

Agon, Sano, Cano, Cain, Bogaerts, Carrasco, Archer, Jansen, Kimbrel.

I am still thinking about possibly going with 2 closers since so many were kept that I didnt think would be. Melancon, Giles, W.Davis, Rosenthal all were kept.

The other route im thinking is Cano, and Carrasco so i can get a solid number 2 SP and a solid 2B. Sano is intruiging but he strikes out way too much. Then again Agon is a really good IF option or backup 1B.

What would you do?

Dmenz

this is a yahoo league by the way if that matters.

carlos gomez is also available and could give me steals if he stays healthy.

Honestly, you can’t really go wrong here. It’s a matter of how you want to construct your team combined with using league dynamics to guess which players might hang around on the draft board longer. I can’t tell you how to draft!

Zach

Hey Cory/Zach – the OBP numbers don’t seem to add up with the PAs and H+BB+HBP columns, is there something off, or is it because it’s a composite? Thanks!

any chance a 2nd draft will be posted soon? thanks

Guys,

There WILL NOT be a new version of the projections. Message from Cory:

The first draft wasn’t playing time adjusted, which is why some of those values might look odd, particularly for those with fewer projections and/or limited roles.

That said, unfortunately there isn’t going to be a second version. I had made great progress on the playing time adjustments but inadvertently blew up the file and don’t have time to recreate it, so it is what it is. Hopefully I can get an earlier start on it next year, but for this year, this is “it”.

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