Happy P&C Day!
If you were too busy gorging yourself on chocolate today, pitchers and catchers reported!! Hope springs eternal!!
In honor of this most wonderful of days, I'm happy to let you all know that I'm very close to finishing up work on the "wisdom of the crowds" projections similar to those I posted last year. This year we have SEVEN different projection systems included, and that's what has caused the delay... I was waiting for one more to be posted and it was just released today.
However, keep in mind that you have to take some projections with a grain of salt... for example, THREE of these systems included projections for Joe Kennedy, who passed away over the winter, several included Craig Biggio, who is most definitely retired, and one projected ZERO saves for Brandon Lyon, even though he's already been named the closer (and the projections were released after that news became widely known).
That said, it's interesting to see how many projections can be so close on so many guys, while also differing so much on other guys. I'm not going to provide the individual projections out of respect to the various companies (some of who charge for these products), but here are two to illustrate how much these things can vary for some guys but be so close for others.
1. Josh Willingham
PRO. AVG R HR RBI SB
1 .271 85 23 82 7
2 .265 68 23 76 6
3 .268 74 23 79 6
4 .276 68 22 79 5
5 .268 71 23 83 6
6 .274 80 25 87 4
7 .266 70 22 76 4
I'd say that represents a high level of confidence, eh? On the other hand...
2. Maggio Ordonez
PRO. AVG R HR RBI SB
1 .306 83 19 88 5
2 .302 91 23 111 2
3 .308 89 21 99 2
4 .322 92 23 112 2
5 .311 95 24 113 2
6 .297 71 16 88 1
7 .309 72 17 91 0
Obviously there's some disagreement in the projection world over how to handle his monster comeback season from last year!
Anyway, this is all part of the fun. I should be done with this and have everything posted next week. Have a great weekend!
Thanks,
Cory
Mags seems to be the Rodney Dangerfield of fantasy outfielders. People have been writing him off for 3-4 years now -- he'll never be healthy again, Comerica will hurt his power numbers, he's a bad clubhouse guy.
Do I have him high on my priority list for 2008? Nope, sorry Rodney. =/
Btw, Cory, you seem to be extremely confident entering Spring Training this year. I mean, I know confidence is not usually a problem for you, but you seem to be...I don't know...just a little more relaxed. Perhaps, winning back-to-back and 3 outta 4 years brings with it an added level of calmness.
All I know is, you seem extra scary this year and the people in your leagues better be ready, 'cause it sure looks like you are.
Johnny Archive
-who can't wait for '08
JAIL Commish
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Johnny, I don't know if it's more confidence on my part or simply that I feel like there's more depth in certain parts of the draft that maybe wasn't there in past years. For example, 3B appears to be loaded, there are some decent middle and bottom-tier closers to consider, and even 2B depth is improving. That's my perception, but certainly it helps going into the draft if you feel like you can get good players at any point...
--Cory
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Cory, thanks for the interesting spin. Maybe the stat-heads are relying a bit too much on prior 3-year numbers?
Speaking of stats, the spreadsheets that you posted last year--created from the combined projections of several sources (ZiPs, PECOTA, etc) proved very valuable ...any plans to do the same this year?
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John, i posted a coment on your jail blog about joining the league if there are still openings.
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Boston Leon, the projections you mention are posted on another thread... "Composite projections are here!"
Enjoy!
--CS
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