Fantasy 411 Q&A: Sept. 30, 2009 (All-Surprise Team)

Cory/Mike-
Very nice review of rooks for 2009 and 2010. But barely mentioned...
Tommy Hanson.
He's a potential 3rd of 3 keepers in my 16 team 5x5 standard roto for 2010, since he's a 18th rounder, and will ~300 off the board come draft day in March.

Where do you rank him for next year? Yes,'09 numbers look great, tough mental makeup and has very good stuff...though he still needs changeup, and his slow delivery is easy to steal on.

Is he an ace in the making or is he a set up for sophomore slump? Does he impress you enough to be a worthy 3rd keeper in 18th?
Other options are Rasmus [16th], Stewart [12th]
Thanks
Alex...with BOB [Baseball on the Brain] VA

First of all, thanks for another great season of the 411.

So many players every year surprise. How about this “B” team:

C Miguel Montero
1B Derrek Lee
2B Adam Kennedy
SS Marco Scutaro
3B Michael Young
OF Adam Lind
OF Nyjer Morgan
OF Michael Cuddyer
UT Franklin Gutierrez
SP Adam Wainwright
SP Randy Wolf
CL Andrew Bailey

Listening to your podcast review of Bumgarner I disagree on one point. You said his mechanics are really good. I watched him in his emergency start and the first thing that jumped out at me, seeing him for the first time, is that his mechanics are horrible. His landing foot ends up way over towards 1st base, his arm points back to somewhere in between SS and 3b as he draws back, all of which causes him to throw way across his body. That right there is probably why his speed was down from what has been reported. When he missed the zone it was way out of the zone which is what you'd expect from a delivery like his and is also why his curveball is more difficult to hit. This is also why his arm angle is almost sidearm, because he has to relieve the pressure somehow. If he continues to pitch this way he is going to have some real problems both with his control and arm health. I know others like Beimel also throw across their body and get away with it, but they are little better put together than Bumgarner.

Just so you know. I was a pitcher in college with this same problem and once I corrected it I saw a dramatic difference in my control, arm condition, and speed. I do know what I'm talking about.

Hey, guys -

finally giving up on winning the last league where I had a chance. Now turning to keepers - what is your policy on keeping closers? Is Papelbon good enough, or is it Nathan or nothing when it comes to keepers? For offense, I've got Kendry, Kinsler, and Ethier as definites, with Sandoval, Victorino and Michael Young on the bubble. The only starter I would consider keeping is King Felix - I know you aren't a big fan of keeping starters, but has Felix risen to that level yet, or do you think I'm better off keeping some of my bubble guys?

thanks!

oops - forgot to say format - 5x5 roto, 5 keepers, Fantasy Baseball Mafia type league (5 ofs, 2 catchers, ci, mi, 6 bench slots). Thanks!

Fellas -

Thanks so much for all your tips, advice, and support over the course of the season -- Its been priceless!

I was wondering if you had time if you could give me your Pitch or Ditch outlook for Friday, Oct 2nd.

Ive got a sweet opportunity to take my league and was hoping to be able to review your analysis and pics one last day before the season ends.

Again, thanks so much and have a great month off!

Alex,

I'd take Hanson over those two guys since I think the value is obviously better and Rasmus and Stewart will be easier to get back. Hanson wasn't mentioned as much for a few reasons. #1 we gushed about him all year long and the fact that Price and Wieters were busts made them the bigger story. I said I got Hanson in a mixed in May and had him all year long and he was the biggest payoff so I felt that was plenty praise, but you have a fair point......Siano

pharis,

Forwarding your question to Schwartz. He'll be getting back to you.

Zach

mlrekut,

Don't love this list...the way you have to look at it is are these guys top 5 round players. If you subscribe to the stud closers theory like we do then Nathan, Papelbon, Rivera and probably Broxton qualify. Kinsler is a no brainer. Kendry believe it or not is borderline which makes Michael Young a definite no. Ethier and Sandoval will be hard to pass up so when all is said and done you have a good list but not a great one. If you think you can get a fantasy ace back in the draft then don't protect Felix. If everyone is protecting an ace consider it since he is that good.

-siano

Thanks, Mike - I did a lot of trading at the deadline as I saw the opportunity to take over first - took the "Flags Fly Forever" approach. So I'm a little short on the slam dunk keepers. Good advice - I'll see what others do in terms of SP and perhaps keep Hernandez. Good luck in Tout Wars!

Hey guys,

I think any All-Surprise list that doesn't include Adam Lind is a bad list. Yes, Carl Crawford, had a great season, but he produced at first round levels while being drafted as, what, a third rounder? Lind produced at a 4th-6th round level while going UNDRAFTED. Sure, Crawford will go higher in drafts next year, but Lind was a much bigger *surprise*. Love the show, but you dropped the ball on this one.

Chris

Hey guys,

Time to ring the bells on one of my fantasy teams (sadly this should have been done long ago, but I wasn't ready to concede emotionally). Looking to next season, I have a slew of potential keepers in my AL-only I'm trying to whittle down to 5 (Round Value next year):

- Morneau (1), is he still Round 1 talent?
- Bay (1)
- Youkilis (6), escalates to Round 2 in 2011
- Figgins (6), escalates to Round 4 in 2011
- Choo (8), escalates to Round 6 in 2011, Round 3 in 2012
- N. Cruz (12), escalates to Round 9 in 2011, Round 6 in 2012, Round 2 in 2013
- Big Erv (13), same escalation as Cruz, 1 round behind each year
- G. Beckham (15), all my Round 15s escalate at +2, +3, +4 and +5, potentially being 1st Rounders in 2014
- Aardsma (15)
- Rodney (15)
- N. Feliz (15)
- Getz (15)

I'm leaning towards these 5: Cruz, Choo, Beckham, Youk and Feliz (I'm a sucker for the flamethrower). I'm not sure about Beckham though with him being a 3B... do you think there are any plans to move him back to SS?

Thanks for the knowledge,

Scotty Mac

Scotty Mac,

Agree with your picks. No matter what position Beckham plays, keeping him for a 15 in an AL-only is an absolute steal. Feliz is still a little risky and a 15 is good but not great value. Might consider going with Big Erv instead but this is a pretty nice keeper list regardless.

Zach