411 Question of the Week (1/28)


Vazquez '04 ALCS Gm 7_2.jpg

Which starting pitcher from this recent Top 30 ADP list on Mock Draft Central is being overvalued the most?


  1. Tim Lincecum
  2. Zack Greinke
  3. CC Sabathia
  4. Felix Hernandez
  5. Roy Halladay
  6. Dan Haren
  7. Johan Santana
  8. Justin Verlander
  9. Cliff Lee
  10. Adam Wainwright
  11. Javier Vazquez
  12. Jon Lester
  13. Chris Carpenter
  14. Josh Johnson
  15. Tommy Hanson
  16. Jake Peavy
  17. Matt Cain
  18. Josh Beckett
  19. Yovani Gallardo
  20. Cole Hamels
  21. Ubaldo Jimenez
  22. Clayton Kershaw
  23. Ricky Nolasco
  24. John Lackey
  25. Chad Billingsley
  26. A.J. Burnett
  27. Matt Garza
  28. James Shields
  29. Jair Jurrjens
  30. Jered Weaver

 
From a talent standpoint, there's not a lot to not like about Javier Vazquez...he's coming off a season in which he posted a career-best 2.87 ERA with his best strikeout totals and rates since 2003, averaging a strikeout per inning and nearly six per walk. However, there are just as many warning signs with him: he'll turn 34 this season and has plenty of mileage on his arm, he's posted an ERA below 4.67 only once in four career seasons in the AL (including a dismal 4.91 ERA in his only other season with the Yankees, in 2004), and he's leaving pitcher-friendly Turner Field for homer-happy Yankee Stadium, where his occasional gopheritis could become a real issue. More importantly though, he lacks the consistently high-quality track record of many of the other pitchers on this list. I wouldn't mind having Javy as my #2 in a mixed league this season, but not at an ace price.

 
-Cory


First off let me say that Tommy Hanson is in man crush city for me. While everyone was getting draft happy with Price and Wieters, I quietly sat back and plucked the big fella off the wire in May and reaped the rewards. With all that said, notice how we are talking about a second year player? Let's assume 180 IP for Hanson in '10. While I expect them to be quality high K innings, do we want a guy as our "ace" who would be ranked in the 50's in IP? Sabathia, Greinke and Lincecum were in the 220's in IP. That's an ace! To me, Hanson as the 15th best pitcher in baseball is a reach, especially if the Braves feel they need to baby him a little in his second big league season. He's not that far off but this could be an issue just because he can't deliver as much as other aces pulling workhorse innings.

 
-Siano

 
Maybe this is just personal bias kicking in as "Big Game James" burned me last year in my money league, but James Shields at #28 seems a bit high. He's coming off a very inconsistent season that included an awful second half (5.16 ERA  1.42 WHIP). While Shields did manage to post a solid 2.13 BB/9 rate, this represented a significant increase from the 1.67 mark he recorded in 2008. I'd gladly opt for Jurrjens, Weaver, Wandy or Oswalt (the latter two do not appear on this list) over Shields, who looks to be regressing rather than progressing.

 
-Zach    



11 Comments

Cory and Mike which players on the cleveland indians can have a good fantasy impact in 2010? Name:Kenny Hometown:Ohio

Ken,

Cory answered your question under the 411 Blog Checklist (1/25) post.

Zach

10 team * NL-Only * 5x5

I can keep 3 and players can only be kept once. I traded away my higher dollar keeper possibilities down the stretch to pick up more stats to secure a second place finish and make a run at 1st. I am left w/ a few cheap guys that will be contributors and allow me to spend some money this year. Give me your opinion on what I have to go off of.

E. Cabrera - 4
Garrett Jones - 3
T. Helton - 6
H. Bailey - 5
De La Rosa - 2
Blanks - 2

I am leaning towards Cabrera, De La Rosa and G. Jones if he wins the job out of camp.

Apparently, YOUR Florida MARLINS have won it all this year.
Check to link for proof.

http://deadspin.com/5459203/marlins-find-hope-in-long+cancelled-star-trek-ripoff


TP

Hey guys. I'm trying to upgrade my keeper list with this trade: I give: Wright (1), B. Roberts (3), Haren (4), Vazquez (13), and A. Cabrera (16) for Braun (1), and Bruce (25). As far as my keepers go this would replace Wright (1) and Vazquez (13) with Braun (1) and Bruce (25). What do you think?

Dear Mike and Cory, Hello Guys. Last night on CBSsports.com I did a fastasy baseball mock draft. Here's the reults: HR Team - Player Position Round Drafted Overall Pick Projected Fantasy Points
Russell Martin C 6 55 424
Justin Morneau 1B 4 35 589
Ian Stewart 2B 8 75 472
Chipper Jones 3B 9 86 462
Yunel Escobar SS 10 95 486
Curtis Granderson OF 5 46 596
Raul Ibanez OF 11 106 493
Grady Sizemore OF 2 15 565
Adam LaRoche U 7 66 488
Aaron Cook P 16 155 299
Dan Haren P 3 26 368.5
Tim Hudson P 18 175 297.5
Aaron Laffey P 19 186 195
Jason Marquis P 17 166 256
CC Sabathia P 1 6 409.5
Kerry Wood P 15 146 221
Nick Swisher 1B 12 115 525
Jay Bruce OF 13 126 461
Travis Hafner U 14 135 377
David Huff P 21 206 132.5
Phil Hughes P 22 215 193.5
Jonathan O. Sanchez P 20 195 176 So there you have it Mike and Cory my mock fantasy baseball draft. Let me know what you think. Name:Kenny Hometown:Ohio

Kenny,

I like the value you got building your offense with Sizemore in the second and Morneau in the fourth. However, Sabathia 6th overall is a definite reach, as is Haren 26th overall. I think you could have taken another big bat in the first round (Kemp, Fielder, Braun, etc.) and then taken Sabathia with the 26th pick (ADP of 29 on mockdraftcentral.com).

Taylor from British Columbia

Mike-
I had these concerns too, especially since I have a vested fantasy interest in him.

However, the following data suggest 200 innings is not a problem, not even a reach

2007:160 MILB innings
2008:180 MILB, AFL innings
2009: 128 MLB+66 MILB= 190 innings

and those above him in your rankings
Greinke: 2008 to 2009: 202 to 229 & CY=+20 IP
Lincecum: 2007 to 2008:177 [31 MILB] to 227 & CY=+50
Wainwright: 2007 to 2009: 202 to 132 to 233 & ~ CY=+30
JJohnson: 2008 to 2009: 110 [25 MILB] to 209 & top10

For years, starters logged 250+, the best 270 to 300. Those days are not coming back, but to think Hanson who is not a hard thrower can't bump up 20 innings to 200 in a pitcher's park in the NL at age 24 is too conservative.
OTOH, the ERA and WHIP may rise slightly...still ace material

Nate,

I'm in full agreement on Cabrera and De La Rosa. Not entirely on board the Jones bandwagon and might even consider Bailey at 5, but 3 bucks isn't a whole lot to spend. Roll the dice on Jones but definitely monitor that situation in Pittsburgh.

Zach

Everett,

Yeah, I'd definitely do that deal. Braun is certainly an upgrade over Wright, and while Vazquez for a 13th rounder is decent value, Bruce for a 25th is a lot better. You're winning in both of these exchanges.

Zach

Kenny,

I like your hitting but it looks like there's a little Indians bias there as Hafner, Laffey and Huff are all reaches. Your closer situation could also be a problem with the shaky and injury-prone Wood serving as your only closer. CC in the first and LaRoche in the seventh were taken too early. If this were a real league, you would need to trade either a starting pitcher or a hitter for at least one additional closer.

Zach

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