For those of you unfamiliar with the List of 12, the concept
is pretty simple: we look for starting pitchers who crossed the 500 career
innings barrier during the previous season, and focus on them as breakout
candidates for the upcoming season. The theory behind this is that it takes
pitchers at least a couple of seasons to fully adjust to pitching in the
Majors, so in fantasy we want to find guys who are ready to have breakout
seasons but might still be a little under the radar. Some of these guys stink and will continue to stink, but if you're looking for guys who are ready to take the next step, this list is a good place to start.
The original list was only 12 guys -- hence the name -- but since it's drawn each year from an objective set of rules, sometimes we get fewer or more than the original dozen. This year illustrates that to the extreme, with 23 guys on the list! There's someone on here for every taste and style.
Of course, some of these guys are already top-shelf stars (Lincecum, Wainwright, Lester) and a few are already in that next tier of fantasy notoriety (Baker, Billingsley, Danks, Floyd, Weaver). But even with so many whose values appears to be established, there are still some values to be found. Here's a quick first-blush rundown of my view on each guy as we turn our eyes to 2010:
Backe, Brandon - Too many arm problems to consider.
Baker, Scott (right) - On the surface his 2009 season looks virtually identical to 2008, but those who were paying attention know that those numbers are skewed by a very poor start. He topped the 200 IP barrier in 2009 and is a target pitcher for 2010.
Bannister, Brian - He's had his moments but the season-ending injury makes him a risky pick for 2010.
Carmona, Fausto - Two straight awful seasons but it's tough to forget his awesome 2006, and his last two starts were very impressive... a great $1 flier in AL-only and deep leagues.
Correia, Kevin - A very quiet but impressive season this year. He's a little old to be viewed as a breakout candidate but should be a solid end-of-rotation choice.
Danks, John - Rate stats all went in the wrong direction this year but that may be skewed by a few disaster starts. I'd like him better in a different ballpark but as it is he's a solid mid-rotation guy and still has upside.
Davies, Kyle - 500+ innings of suck.
De La Rosa, Jorge - The trends and his age suggest this
breakthrough is for real. Obviously
Floyd, Gavin (right) - Those who judge pitchers by W-L or even just ERA are going to miss the boat on this one. Rate stats and age point to a major breakout in 2010, and make special note of the fifty percent decrease in his second-half walk rate.
Garza, Matt (below) - See Floyd, Gavin. Three straight seasons of improvement in K/BB rate along with career highs in IP show ability growing along with durability. He may be too homer prone to become a fantasy ace, but I'm still a very bullish on him for 2010.
Guthrie, Jeremy - Here's where stats come in handy... watching him pitch you think he's a future ace. The stats are all trending in the wrong direction, though, and scream "stay away."
Jackson, Edwin - His ERA was double in the second half what it was before the All-Star break, and every other rate stat went in the wrong direction as well, which I personally attribute to overwork by noted arm-fragger Jim Leyland. But the overall body of work shows major improvement, so he could take another big step forward in 2010... just don't gamble full price on it.
Jimenez, Ubaldo (right) - Possibly the best
Lester, Jon - Check out the 2.48 ERA and 9.8 K/9 ratio in his last 24 starts. Stud.
Lincecum, Tim - Three straight years of improvement in WHIP, hit rate, walk rate and homer rate... now entrenched as the #1 pitcher in fantasy baseball.
Nolasco, Ricky (right) - Like Floyd and Garza, the overall stats don't tell the full story. He was dominant after returning from a brief Triple-A exile, with a five-to-one K/BB and 10.1 K/9 ratio in his last 22 starts. The added age and maturity should help prevent the disaster starts that skewed his overall numbers last season; as much as anyone on this list he is poised to take a major leap forward next in value next season.
Saunders, Joe - Pitched exceptionally well down the stretch, with a 2.55 ERA in eight starts after coming off the DL, suggesting that some of his struggles may have been injury-related. The lack of strikeouts limit his value but he should continue to be a solid end-of-rotation option.
Wainwright, Adam - Threw 13 straight quality starts at one point, and 18-of-19. Stud.
Weaver, Jered - Took a big step forward this year in terms of maturity and consistency, but the trends are mixed for 2010. His innings pitched have increased in three straight seasons, which speaks to his durability, but the rate stats have all fluctuated around his career averages, so this may be as good as it gets. That's certainly good enough to make him a solid #3 in any format.
Wellemeyer, Todd - I liked him as a sleeper in 2009 but he was awful and injured. Worth a flier in deep and unmixed leagues but nothing more.
So to sum it all up, here's how I rank them going into 2010:
* Full-price studs: Lester, Lincecum, Wainwright
* Breakout picks: Baker, Floyd, Garza, Jimenez, Nolasco
* Upside with risk: Billingsley, Jackson
* As good as it gets?: Danks, De La Rosa, Weaver
* Cheap options: Correia, Saunders
* Fliers: Carmona,
* Stay away: Backe, Bannister, Davies, Guthrie
Enjoy the rest of the postseason!
P.S. -- If you want to add one more guy to the list to make it an even 24, for a double-sized List of 12, the next guy who just missed the cut on innings was Josh Johnson of the Marlins. He'll be on everyone's radar next season and for good reason!
