CORY’S PICKS

Arroyo @ Pettitte – wait and see on Pettitte

Zambrano @ Masterson

Morton @ Verlander – Morton is a matchup guy… not this matchup!

Niese @ Romero

Hanson @ Shields

Saunders @ Mendoza

Humber @ Samardzija

Arrieta @ Jackson

Bard @ Hamels

Feliz @ Wandy

Diamond @ Estrada

Millwood @ White – keep an eye on White though

Weaver @ Suppan

Parker @ Zito

Lynn @ Lilly

CORY’S PICKS

CORY’S PICKS

Blackburn @ Porcello

King Felix @ Jimenez – if you can’t start Ubaldo at home vs. the Mariners, where CAN you start him?

Kuroda @ Drabek – neither pitching very well of late; play it safe

Buchholz @ Hellickson – I’d like to see one more good start from Buchholz first

Milone @ Darvish – check Milone’s early home/away splits

Hunter @ Paulino

Floyd @ Williams

Capuano @ Richard

Bedard @ Gonzalez – assuming of course that Bedard is actually healthy!

Leake @ J. Santana – Leake’s rotation spot is in jeopardy

Buehrle @ Minor – Minor showing me just enough to stay alive…

Wolf @ Norris

Worley @ Garza

Corbin @ Moyer

J. Garcia @ Bumgarner

CORY’S PICKS

Lowe @ Marquis – still skeptical of Lowe but gotta love the matchup

Scherzer @ Peavy

Beavan @ Beckett – if you can’t trust Beckett here…

Sabathia @ W.Chen – Chen has been great, but the HR/FB regression monster is looming…

Colon @ Big Erv

Price @ Alvarez

Mazzaro @ Lewis

Lyles @ Lee

Bass @ Strasburg – Bass 38 K’s in 35.0 IP as a starter

Maholm @ Lohse – don’t trust Lohse, but the matchup…

Cueto @ T. Hudson

Greinke @ Gee – Gee is a toss-up

Correia @ Johnson – if you can’t just JJ here…

Miley @ Billingsley

Guthrie @ Lincecum

***MIKE SAYS “No arguments here. I feel like W. Chen deserves a shot but he keeps getting tough matchups and is due for a stinker.”

Hey everyone,

We all know how crazy the closer turnover has been so far this year, whether it be due to poor performance, or injury. So just for fun, I decided to do a little study to figure out the exact number of undisputed current closers who are the same guys we drafted for saves if our drafts were held on or before March 15. The answer? Less than half. 14 of 30 to be exact. Here’s the breakdown, with the name on the left being the draft day closer and the name on the right the current closer.

But does this disprove the longstanding 411 strategy of drafting elite closers early? Not exactly, as noted by Cory below:

I think the injury part skews the analysis, especially in Mariano’s case. I’ve never see any evidence to suggest that closers are greater injury risks than other groups of players. Moreover, Bailey was known to be injured during spring training, so even though his replacement was in doubt, his injury was not. Same with Madson, Storen and Soria.

In my opinion, the closers to truly “lose” their jobs this year, along with their order of selection among all relievers in my NFBC league, are:

5. Bell (although he did get it back, for what that’s worth)

6. Walden (not even a top-10 closer in the 411 preseason rankings)

17. Francisco (assuming he has lost the job)

20. Marmol

24. Balfour

26. Guerra (Kenley got taken before him, too)

27. Thornton (although this one was up in the air from the start)

Yes, the injury rate has been unusually high this year, but this fail rate does nothing – NOT ONE THING – to disprove our assertion that top-tier closers are a better investment.

So what do you guys think? All opinions are welcome.

-Zach

Why does Saundo look so mean?

ZACH’S PICKS

SATURDAY

Williams @ Harrison – Williams has been impressive, but this is a terrible matchup.

Noesi @ Hughes – I’ll give Hughes a shot here.

Moore @ Matusz – Moore deserves a little more patience.

Tomlin @ Doubront – Keep an eye on Doubront going forward, but he’s too risky to pitch right now.

Hochevar @ Stults – Hochevar just can’t seem to find any sort of consistency.

Hutchison @ Walters

Fister @ McCarthy – Tough challenge for McCarthy in return to mound but at home I’ll throw him out there.

Volstad @ Marcum

Dickey @ Nolasco – Dickey 5-for-6 in quality starts.

Happ @ Morton – Happ always risky but I’ll use him for this matchup.

Volquez @ Halladay – Volquez always a candidate to implode but he’s been very solid.

Zimmermann @ Latos

Beachy @ Wainwright

Cain @ Cahill

Nicasio @ Harang – This could be 3-2 or 10-9. Either pitch both or ditch both. I’ll pitch.

                                                                                                                                               SUNDAY

Beavan @ Pettitte – Andy’s first start since October 2010…why not?

Masterson @ Bard – Masterson pitching OK of late but high BB rate will eventually come back to haunt him.

Shields @ Arrieta – Three of Arrieta’s last four starts have been ugly. Ditch!

Duffy @ Humber

Romero @ Diamond – I need to see more from Diamond before I can trust him vs. above average offense.

Verlander @ Parker

Weaver @ Feliz – Feliz back in my good graces.

Niese @ Zambrano

Jackson @ Arroyo

Wandy @ Burnett – A.J. bounced back big time in his last start.

Suppan @ Hamels

Samardzija @ Estrada

Hanson @ Lynn

Pomeranz @ Lilly – Haven’t lost faith in Pomeranz but I’m taking a break from him.

Zito @ Saunders – Saundo turning back into a pumpkin but I think he does well here.

                                                                                                                                             MONDAY

Nova @ Hammel – Both are risky though.

Niemann @ Morrow – Not a great situation for Niemann but I’ll gamble.

Millwood @ Lester

B. Chen @ TBD (TEX)

Gomez @ Pavano – Pavano’s too hit or miss.

Smyly @ Danks – Smyly’s on a roll. Danks’ last start was encouraging.

Ross @ Haren

Dempster @ Westbrook – Westbrook bound to have a disaster outing, but I don’t think it happens here.

Suppan @ Detwiler – Detwiler the official 411 blue-plate special of the day.

An. Rodriguez @ Blanton – Still don’t fully trust Blanton. Astros’ lineup not so terrible after all.

Bailey @ Delgado

Gallardo @ Batista

Bedard @ An. Sanchez – Injured Bedard might not make this start.

Kennedy @ Kershaw

White @ Vogelsong

Hey everyone,

We didn’t spend a ton of time on today’s podcast on two-start pitchers so I hope that these in-depth notes are helpful. Here are my thoughts on 10 not totally obvious two-start pitchers for next week. Check out the podcast when it comes out to hear what Cory has to say about his Pitch pick (Ross Detwiler) and his Ditch choice (Homer Bailey).

-Zach

                                                                                                                                                       Drew Smyly: @CWS, vs. PIT

He’s been absolutely dominant over his first six big league starts. White Sox offense is middle of the pack overall and ranks just 12^th in AL in runs scored at home. The Pirates are, well, the Pirates. Pitch!

Jason Hammel: vs. NYY, @WAS

I keep waiting for him to implode but it hasn’t happened. Maybe this is his breakout year. Pitch despite the less than favorable matchups. He’s already pitched well against the Yanks this year, and that was on the road.

Max Scherzer: @CWS, vs. PIT

He’s been so erratic this year that it’s hard to trust him vs. anyone. But coming off two straight solid performances, I’m giving Scherzer a shot here. He’s got the same two matchups as Smyly does and, as discussed above, I love them!

Josh Beckett: vs. SEA, @PHI

Two disaster starts have skewed his ERA and these are tasty matchups. Generally, I’m not a big fan of the guy as he can blow up at any moment, but you can’t possibly bench him here.

Jason Vargas: @BOS, @COL

Can you say stats correction? Vargas has been exceptional so far this season but he’s in for a rough week, even though the Red Sox lineup has underperformed. I still see him as Pitch or Ditch material for the time being. Ditch.

Ivan Nova: @BAL, vs. CIN

I had high hopes for Nova going into the season and he’s been OK but not great. The much improved K rate is nice but he’s also giving up a ton of hits. We recently demoted him from grad to PoD and these matchups aren’t all that appealing. But in any two-start week, he’s a viable option due to the strikeout and win potential. Pitch.

Joe Blanton: vs. HOU, vs. BOS

Blanton’s been a real pleasant surprise this year. I own him in an NL-only and will certainly be starting him there. But in a 12-team mixed, I’d be worried. Despite the Red Sox lineup’s perceived struggles, they still rank second in the majors in runs scored and the Astros’ offense has exceeded all expectations. Like Vargas, Blanton is due for a blowup. Don’t be surprised if it happens next week. Ditch.

John Danks: vs. DET, @CHC

The Detroit start will be a challenging one but the Cubs rank 14^th in the NL in runs scored. I know he’s been frustrating to own this season, but I’d gamble on Danks, who is coming off his best outing of the year.

Dillon Gee: vs. MIL, @TOR

Who’s the real Dillon Gee? I have no idea. You just never know what you’re going to get with this guy. The first matchup is OK but not great. The second one is scary. He’s an NL-only play. Too risky for mixed leagues.

Christian Freidrich: @SF, vs. SEA

The more I look at his minor league numbers the more impressed I get, particularly the exceptional strikeout rate. That said, I wouldn’t go crazy over one strong outing vs. the Padres at Petco. But you can’t ask for a more favorable pair of matchups. He’s a must-start in NL-onlys and a worthy flier in larger mixed leagues, but in a standard 12-teamer I’d take a wait and see approach.

ZACH’S PICKS

CORY’S PICKS

Hey guys,

As promised, here’s our first May update to our renowned Pitch or Ditch category chart:

PoD Chart 5-8-12

Once again, a reminder as to how it works:

We’ve divided all of the current starting rotation pitchers in the Majors into five groups: Aces, Grads (pitchers who you should be starting regardless of the matchup), Pitch or Ditch (guys who you should be picking up to start in favorable matchups but do not deserve a regular roster spot), DTMs (guys who we are fed up with and would not start under any circumstances for the time being) and Indifferents (guys who we don’t feel any ill-will towards but who just aren’t that good). Keep in mind that these classifications are very much subject to change throughout the season based on performance. We’ll be updating the chart every other Monday.

And here are the changes we’ve made since the last version:

                                                                                                                                  PROMOTIONS

Gio grad to ace

Bumgarner grad to ace

Wilson grad to ace

Zambrano PoD to grad

Hammel PoD to grad

Alvarez PoD to grad

Parker PoD to grad

Lynn PoD to grad

Samardzija PoD to grad

Smyly PoD to grad

Westbrook indifferent to PoD

Estrada indifferent to PoD

                                                                                                                                     DEMOTIONS

Johnson ace to grad

Cahill grad to PoD

Danks grad to PoD

Nova grad to PoD

Harrison grad to PoD

Ubaldo grad to PoD

Minor grad to PoD

Ross PoD to indifferent

Moyer PoD to indifferent

Harrell PoD to indifferent

Questions? Comments? Let’s hear it!

-Zach